STATE POLLING
New polls today from Louisiana (Trump +10), Iowa (tied), Colorado (Clinton +2), Florida (Clinton +3), Virginia (Clinton +6), Minnesota (Clinton +7), Massachusetts (Clinton +13), New York (Clinton +21), two from North Carolina (Clinton +1 and Clinton +1), and four from Pennsylvania (Clinton +3, Clinton +3, Clinton +2, and Clinton +1)
Coming on the heels of a very good night in the first debate, today's batch of polls (all taken before the debate, it should be noted) are more welcome news for the Clinton campaign, with one exception. Aside from Pennsylvania, she is either holding her own or improving her numbers in the battleground states.
But, about Pennsylvania... Four polls in one day (a first this season) all show the same thing: the state she had all but locked up a month ago is now a virtual toss-up. And the reason is that Trump's greatest strength (and about the only time he bested Clinton last night) is his economic message aimed at disaffected blue collar workers, which is tailored for states like Pennsylvania.
Of course, what everyone in the prediction business is waiting for are the polls being conducted today and tomorrow that will show whether the debate had any effect on the still undecided voters in the battleground states. It's going to be an interesting week, no doubt.
One change to the map today: Pennsylvania moves from "likely" to "leaning". Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 301 to 237.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Texas: Trump up by 5.1%
Leaning Republican
Georgia: Trump up by 3.9%
Iowa: Trump up by 3%
Arizona: Trump up by 2%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.8%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.2%
North Carolina: Trump up by 0.9%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 1.1%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1.3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 3%
Likely Democrat
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Virginia: Clinton up by 6.1%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Quinnipiac (Clinton +1), Monmouth (Clinton +4), and NBC News/SM (Clinton +5). Again, it should to be noted that these are all pre-debate polls.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 4.1%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
And, once again, a single story dominates the headlines this morning...
Associated Press -- Cheers and jeers: Americans tune into Trump-Clinton debate
From senior centers to college campuses and bars featuring campaign-themed cocktails, Americans laughed, cheered and jeered through the first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Buzzfeed -- Trump And Clinton Lay Out Competing Visions Of Race In America
“We move into our next segment talking about America’s direction,” Lester Holt told viewers during the first presidential debate. “And let’s start by talking about race.” The momentary pause that followed the transition sent people on social media into a defensive crouch.
CNN -- Clinton goes after Trump at first debate
The debate of the century delivered. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump waged a fiery battle Monday night when they appeared on stage together -- a clash of two famous personalities locked in a dead heat for the presidency.
Fox News -- Trump, Clinton clash at fiery first debate
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, in a fiery opening debate where seemingly nothing was off limits, clashed sharply Monday night as the Republican nominee worked to cast his rival as a career politician unable to bring change – and the Democratic nominee fought to tag Trump as an empty suit “hiding” something from the American public.
Politico -- 5 takeaways from the first presidential debate
There were a couple of not-so-very-subtle signals here inside of Hofstra University that Donald Trump lost Monday night’s highly-anticipated debate against Hillary Clinton, and badly.
The Hill -- Debate of century lives up to its billing
The first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton lived up to its billing on Monday night as sparks flew on subjects ranging from trade deals to the fight against ISIS. Stylistically, it was a clash between the more incisive and prepared Clinton and Trump, who leaned heavily on instinct and combativeness.
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