STATE POLLING
No new polls today.
Currently, Clinton has a 256 to 142 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Utah: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll from PPP, which has Clinton up +5 in a four-candidate field. This is the first post-convention poll to come in, and shows the expected "bounce" for the Democratic nominee. Of interest, Clinton is +5 in both a four-candidate field and head-to-head with Trump.
The current composite polling average has Trump leading by 1.2%, trending downwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Trump Stirs Outrage After He Lashes Out At The Muslim Parents Af A Dead U.S. Soldier
(Washington Post) -- Republican Donald Trump lashed out Saturday at two Muslim American parents who lost their son while he served in the U.S. military in Iraq and who appeared at the Democratic National Convention last week, stirring outrage among critics who said the episode proves that Trump lacks the compassion and temperament to be president.
Asked to comment on the convention speech of Khizr Khan, a Pakistani immigrant whose son, Army Capt. Humayun Khan, died in Iraq in 2004, Trump described Khan as “very emotional” and said he “probably looked like a nice guy to me” — then accused him of being controlled by the Clinton campaign.
“Who wrote that? Did Hillary’s scriptwriters write it?” he asked in an interview with ABC. Trump also questioned why Khan’s wife, Ghazala, did not speak on stage, despite the fact that she sat for an interview with MSNBC the following day.
Koch Brothers Network Rules Out Anti-Clinton Ads
(CNN) -- The powerful political network helmed by Charles and David Koch is ruling out running advertisements intended to hurt Hillary Clinton, another sign of their insistence on avoiding the presidential race.
The Koch network has previously said they will not back Republican candidate Donald Trump, but on Saturday officials told reporters that they would not run negative Clinton spots, a position taken by some Republican groups that are uneasy with the controversial GOP standard-bearer. The group is laser-focused on maintaining and expanding the Senate majority -- in the midst of a $42 million television advertising campaign focused on a half-dozen states -- and would only use Clinton to bash Senate Democratic hopefuls.
Network officials outlined their plans here as 400 of their donors prepared to hear from a roster of Republican leaders. House Speaker Paul Ryan is among the politicians who scored invites to one of the nation's most sought-after political retreats at a lavish campus nestled in the Rocky Mountains.
NFL Denies It Sent Letter to Trump Over Debate Schedule
(NBC News) -- The National Football League said Saturday it did not send a letter to Donald Trump about the timing of the presidential debate schedule, after the GOP nominee claimed the league had.
Asked by ABC News' George George Stephanopoulos in an interview that will air on "This Week" Sunday, Trump said, "I'll tell you what I don't like. It's against two NFL games."
"I got a letter from the NFL saying 'this is ridiculous, why are the debates against' — because the NFL doesn't want to go against the debates because the debates are going to be pretty massive from what I understand," Trump said.
The NFL denied any letter was sent.
Billionaire Mark Cuban Endorses Hillary Clinton
(Fortune) -- Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton toured the U.S. Rust Belt on Saturday, promising to reject bad international trade deals during a factory visit and securing the endorsement of investor Mark Cuban at a Pittsburgh rally.
The Dallas Mavericks owner, who said as recently as last month that there was a “good chance” he would vote for Donald Trump, instead criticized the Republican nominee’s leadership in front of an energetic crowd.
“Leadership is not yelling and screaming and intimidating,” Cuban said. “You know what we call a person like that in Pittsburgh? A jagoff!” Cuban added, using disparaging Pittsburgh slang.
Sunday, July 31, 2016
Saturday, July 30, 2016
100 Days Till Election Day: New polls from California and Missouri
STATE POLLING
New polls today from California and Missouri. While Clinton easily maintains a +20 lead in the Golden State, the news from Missouri is much more surprising. Just as the recent polling had moved the Show Me State out of battleground status in favor of Trump, this new poll swings everything back towards Clinton. As such, this puts Missouri back into the battleground map above, though still leaning-GOP.
Currently, Clinton has a 256 to 142 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Utah: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from Reuters/Ipsos that has Clinton and Trump tied in a four-candidate race, but has Clinton up +5 head-to-head with Trump. As regular readers of this blog know, I use the four-candidate numbers (when available) in my cumulative averaging, so the current composite polling average now has Trump leading by 1.9%, trending upwards.
One note: Don't expect to see any polling that reflects a post-convention "bounce" (or not) from the recently concluded DNC until Monday at the earliest, and then it will be a week before we can get a true gauge on the impact (if any) of the convention on the national race.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
100 Days To Go In Volatile Race
(The Hill) -- One hundred days from now, either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be elected president. In such a volatile political year, the outcome is anyone’s guess.
Clinton and Trump are hampered by the worst favorability ratings for nominees in modern times, though both have committed, fervent supporters.
The electoral map and the shifting demographics of the United States appear to favor Clinton, particularly because Trump is struggling mightily to attract support from minority voters.
But a nation hungry for change could rally to Trump, the consummate outsider. A Pew Research Center poll last month found that 71 percent of adults are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the nation.
Clinton Campaign Denies Reports Computer System Hacked
(Washington Post) -- The Clinton presidential campaign said Friday that an “analytics data program” maintained by the Democratic National Committee had been hacked but that its computer system had not been compromised, denying news reports from earlier in the day that the campaign had become the third Democratic Party organization whose systems had been penetrated.
So far, campaign computer experts “have found no evidence that our internal systems have been compromised,” campaign spokesman Nick Merrill said in a statement.
Merrill said that “an analytics data program maintained by the DNC and used by our campaign and a number of other entities was accessed as part of the DNC hack.” The campaign did not provide details, but a source familiar with the situation said that the hacked material was generally dull and did not include email communications, memos, research or other potentially inflammatory communications. Mostly, the source said, it included innocuous data such as computer code and lists of email addresses.
Federal Appeals Court Strikes Down North Carolina Voter ID Requirement
(New York Times) -- A federal appeals court decisively struck down North Carolina’s voter identification law on Friday, saying its provisions deliberately “target African-Americans with almost surgical precision” in an effort to depress black turnout at the polls.
The sweeping 83-page decision by a panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit upended voting procedures in a battleground state about three months before Election Day. That ruling and a second wide-ranging decision on Friday, in Wisconsin, continued a string of recent court opinions against restrictive voting laws that critics say were created solely to keep minority and other traditionally Democratic voters away from the polls.
The North Carolina ruling tossed out the state’s requirement that voters present photo identification at the polls and restored voters’ ability to register on Election Day, to register before reaching the 18-year-old voting age, and to cast early ballots, provisions the law had fully or partly eliminated.
Trump Accuses Clinton of Rigging Debate Schedule
(Politico) -- Donald Trump late Friday accused Hillary Clinton of intentionally stacking debates against primetime programming to “rig” the election process, despite the fact that the schedule has been set since last September.
“As usual, Hillary & the Dems are trying to rig the debates so 2 are up against major NFL games. Same as last time w/ Bernie. Unacceptable!” Trump tweeted late Friday night.
The preliminary debate schedule for the general election has been set since September, 2015, by the non-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates. The schedule includes a Sunday night debate on Oct. 9 that will air concurrently with an NFL game between the Green Bay Packers and the North Carolina Panthers.
New polls today from California and Missouri. While Clinton easily maintains a +20 lead in the Golden State, the news from Missouri is much more surprising. Just as the recent polling had moved the Show Me State out of battleground status in favor of Trump, this new poll swings everything back towards Clinton. As such, this puts Missouri back into the battleground map above, though still leaning-GOP.
Currently, Clinton has a 256 to 142 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Utah: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from Reuters/Ipsos that has Clinton and Trump tied in a four-candidate race, but has Clinton up +5 head-to-head with Trump. As regular readers of this blog know, I use the four-candidate numbers (when available) in my cumulative averaging, so the current composite polling average now has Trump leading by 1.9%, trending upwards.
One note: Don't expect to see any polling that reflects a post-convention "bounce" (or not) from the recently concluded DNC until Monday at the earliest, and then it will be a week before we can get a true gauge on the impact (if any) of the convention on the national race.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
100 Days To Go In Volatile Race
(The Hill) -- One hundred days from now, either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be elected president. In such a volatile political year, the outcome is anyone’s guess.
Clinton and Trump are hampered by the worst favorability ratings for nominees in modern times, though both have committed, fervent supporters.
The electoral map and the shifting demographics of the United States appear to favor Clinton, particularly because Trump is struggling mightily to attract support from minority voters.
But a nation hungry for change could rally to Trump, the consummate outsider. A Pew Research Center poll last month found that 71 percent of adults are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the nation.
Clinton Campaign Denies Reports Computer System Hacked
(Washington Post) -- The Clinton presidential campaign said Friday that an “analytics data program” maintained by the Democratic National Committee had been hacked but that its computer system had not been compromised, denying news reports from earlier in the day that the campaign had become the third Democratic Party organization whose systems had been penetrated.
So far, campaign computer experts “have found no evidence that our internal systems have been compromised,” campaign spokesman Nick Merrill said in a statement.
Merrill said that “an analytics data program maintained by the DNC and used by our campaign and a number of other entities was accessed as part of the DNC hack.” The campaign did not provide details, but a source familiar with the situation said that the hacked material was generally dull and did not include email communications, memos, research or other potentially inflammatory communications. Mostly, the source said, it included innocuous data such as computer code and lists of email addresses.
Federal Appeals Court Strikes Down North Carolina Voter ID Requirement
(New York Times) -- A federal appeals court decisively struck down North Carolina’s voter identification law on Friday, saying its provisions deliberately “target African-Americans with almost surgical precision” in an effort to depress black turnout at the polls.
The sweeping 83-page decision by a panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit upended voting procedures in a battleground state about three months before Election Day. That ruling and a second wide-ranging decision on Friday, in Wisconsin, continued a string of recent court opinions against restrictive voting laws that critics say were created solely to keep minority and other traditionally Democratic voters away from the polls.
The North Carolina ruling tossed out the state’s requirement that voters present photo identification at the polls and restored voters’ ability to register on Election Day, to register before reaching the 18-year-old voting age, and to cast early ballots, provisions the law had fully or partly eliminated.
Trump Accuses Clinton of Rigging Debate Schedule
(Politico) -- Donald Trump late Friday accused Hillary Clinton of intentionally stacking debates against primetime programming to “rig” the election process, despite the fact that the schedule has been set since last September.
“As usual, Hillary & the Dems are trying to rig the debates so 2 are up against major NFL games. Same as last time w/ Bernie. Unacceptable!” Trump tweeted late Friday night.
The preliminary debate schedule for the general election has been set since September, 2015, by the non-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates. The schedule includes a Sunday night debate on Oct. 9 that will air concurrently with an NFL game between the Green Bay Packers and the North Carolina Panthers.
Friday, July 29, 2016
101 Days Till Election Day: New polls from California, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, New Hampshire
STATE POLLING
New polls today from California, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, and New Hampshire. The biggest takeaways from this recent batch of polls is that Pennsylvania has moved out of battleground status, New Hampshire has become an all but virtual tie, and Nevada (along with Arizona and Utah) have become the new battleground states of the West.
With the exception of New Hampshire (which may be an outlier poll -- we'll see what the next few polls report), the other news is decidedly not good for the Trump campaign, specifically the Pennsylvania polling. To put it bluntly, there is virtually no path to victory for the GOP that does not include winning Pennsylvania.
Add in 5% or higher leads for Clinton in Virginia and Florida (the big prize), and you can see why I don't trust all the recent "Trump Is Going To Win!" news stories, even those from other prediction sites. The electoral math -- as it stands now -- simply does not support such a supposition.
With Pennsylvania moving to solid blue, Clinton now has a 256 to 152 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Utah: Trump up by 4.7%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
One new poll today, from Rasmussen, which is well-known for having a Republican "house effect" of between two to five points in favor of the GOP. Which makes it quite surprising that they now have Clinton ahead by one, reversing a week-long trend of polls favoring Trump.
Has the Democratic Convention polling "bounce" already begun? We shall see...
The current composite polling average has Trump leading by 1.5%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Clinton’s Big Moment Wraps Up Convention
(Washington Post) -- It was a moment America had never seen: a woman accepting a major party’s nomination for president.
Hillary Clinton accepted the Democratic nomination Thursday, pledging to unite a divided country and casting herself as a tested, steady hand in troubled times. She said she would work to improve the lives of all Americans, not just those at the top.
She closed a convention that tested the party’s ability to unify after a divisive primary fight. After a rocky opening day featuring protests and jeers, the opposition settled down, but never faded completely.
How Hillary Clinton Defined Her Historic Moment
(CNN) -- As Hillary Clinton playfully batted away an avalanche of balloons Thursday night, she appeared proud, happy and reconciled to her historic moment.
She had accepted the Democratic nomination with "humility, determination and boundless confidence in America's promise," taking her place as the first woman to lead a major presidential ticket on a night pulsating with emotion.
"When there are no ceilings," she declared, "the sky's the limit."
Her speech lacked the poetic sweep of the President Barack Obama's address Wednesday, but it was in keeping with someone who presents herself as a practical, dogged, policy-oriented striver who gets knocked down and then gets straight back up.
Trump Accuses Dems of Pitching ‘Fantasy World’
(The Hill) -- Donald Trump says the Democratic Party's optimistic worldview portrayed at its national convention this week is a fantasy.
"At Hillary Clinton’s convention this week, Democrats have been speaking about a world that doesn’t exist," Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, said in a statement Thursday afternoon, shortly before Clinton’s presidential nomination acceptance speech on the last night of the convention.
"A world where America has full employment, where there’s no such thing as radical Islamic terrorism, where the border is totally secured, and where thousands of innocent Americans have not suffered from rising crime in cities like Baltimore and Chicago."
Trump Wants To 'Hit' DNC Speakers Who Disparaged Him
(CNN) -- Donald Trump, after hearing speeches at the Democratic convention this week, said Thursday he wanted to "hit a number of those speakers so hard, their heads would spin."
"They'd never recover," he said. Trump often uses the term "hit" to mean verbally attack, rather than physical contact.
The Republican nominee zoomed in on one speaker especially, though he didn't mention his name.
"I was going to hit one guy in particular, a very little guy," Trump said to laughs at a campaign rally in Davenport, Iowa. "I was going to hit this guy so hard his head would spin, he wouldn't know what the hell happened."
New polls today from California, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, and New Hampshire. The biggest takeaways from this recent batch of polls is that Pennsylvania has moved out of battleground status, New Hampshire has become an all but virtual tie, and Nevada (along with Arizona and Utah) have become the new battleground states of the West.
With the exception of New Hampshire (which may be an outlier poll -- we'll see what the next few polls report), the other news is decidedly not good for the Trump campaign, specifically the Pennsylvania polling. To put it bluntly, there is virtually no path to victory for the GOP that does not include winning Pennsylvania.
Add in 5% or higher leads for Clinton in Virginia and Florida (the big prize), and you can see why I don't trust all the recent "Trump Is Going To Win!" news stories, even those from other prediction sites. The electoral math -- as it stands now -- simply does not support such a supposition.
With Pennsylvania moving to solid blue, Clinton now has a 256 to 152 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Utah: Trump up by 4.7%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
One new poll today, from Rasmussen, which is well-known for having a Republican "house effect" of between two to five points in favor of the GOP. Which makes it quite surprising that they now have Clinton ahead by one, reversing a week-long trend of polls favoring Trump.
Has the Democratic Convention polling "bounce" already begun? We shall see...
The current composite polling average has Trump leading by 1.5%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Clinton’s Big Moment Wraps Up Convention
(Washington Post) -- It was a moment America had never seen: a woman accepting a major party’s nomination for president.
Hillary Clinton accepted the Democratic nomination Thursday, pledging to unite a divided country and casting herself as a tested, steady hand in troubled times. She said she would work to improve the lives of all Americans, not just those at the top.
She closed a convention that tested the party’s ability to unify after a divisive primary fight. After a rocky opening day featuring protests and jeers, the opposition settled down, but never faded completely.
How Hillary Clinton Defined Her Historic Moment
(CNN) -- As Hillary Clinton playfully batted away an avalanche of balloons Thursday night, she appeared proud, happy and reconciled to her historic moment.
She had accepted the Democratic nomination with "humility, determination and boundless confidence in America's promise," taking her place as the first woman to lead a major presidential ticket on a night pulsating with emotion.
"When there are no ceilings," she declared, "the sky's the limit."
Her speech lacked the poetic sweep of the President Barack Obama's address Wednesday, but it was in keeping with someone who presents herself as a practical, dogged, policy-oriented striver who gets knocked down and then gets straight back up.
Trump Accuses Dems of Pitching ‘Fantasy World’
(The Hill) -- Donald Trump says the Democratic Party's optimistic worldview portrayed at its national convention this week is a fantasy.
"At Hillary Clinton’s convention this week, Democrats have been speaking about a world that doesn’t exist," Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, said in a statement Thursday afternoon, shortly before Clinton’s presidential nomination acceptance speech on the last night of the convention.
"A world where America has full employment, where there’s no such thing as radical Islamic terrorism, where the border is totally secured, and where thousands of innocent Americans have not suffered from rising crime in cities like Baltimore and Chicago."
Trump Wants To 'Hit' DNC Speakers Who Disparaged Him
(CNN) -- Donald Trump, after hearing speeches at the Democratic convention this week, said Thursday he wanted to "hit a number of those speakers so hard, their heads would spin."
"They'd never recover," he said. Trump often uses the term "hit" to mean verbally attack, rather than physical contact.
The Republican nominee zoomed in on one speaker especially, though he didn't mention his name.
"I was going to hit one guy in particular, a very little guy," Trump said to laughs at a campaign rally in Davenport, Iowa. "I was going to hit this guy so hard his head would spin, he wouldn't know what the hell happened."
Thursday, July 28, 2016
102 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Kansas, Missouri, Vermont, Delaware, Oregon, Ohio
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Kansas, Missouri, Vermont, Delaware, Oregon and Ohio. The first two are solidly Republican, while the middle three are securely Democratic. Ohio, as usual, remains one of the classic swing states.
Currently, Clinton has a 236 to 152 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Utah: Trump up by 4.7%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.4%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 2.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from LA Times/USC (Trump +7) that represents Trump's biggest lead of the season.
The current composite polling average has Trump leading by 1.5%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Obama’s Speech Made The Best Case For Clinton
(Washingon Post) -- Eight years ago, Hillary Clinton united the Democratic Party behind Barack Obama, helping propel him to the presidency. Four years ago, when Obama was in a close race with Mitt Romney, Bill Clinton defended the president’s record in the most eloquent speech of the 2012 Democratic National Convention. At the time, Obama owed both Clintons a huge debt.
Now, after what will probably turn out to be the best speech of this year’s convention, Obama has paid Clinton back several times over.
Why was the president’s speech so effective? It’s not just that Obama personally vouched for her, though he did that plenty. “There has never been a man or a woman, not me, not Bill, nobody more qualified than Hillary Clinton to serve as president,” he said.
Hillary Clinton To Make Her Case At Convention’s Close
(Wall Street Journal) -- The importance of Hillary Clinton’s Thursday night speech wrapping up the Democratic presidential convention can’t be overstated.
Simply put, Mrs. Clinton won’t get this sort of opportunity again before the election. In the debates in the fall, she’ll share space and airtime with Republican nominee Donald Trump. On Thursday, she’ll have the stage to herself, speaking to a national TV audience in prime time as she officially accepts the Democratic presidential nomination.
Why does it matter so much? The speech is a chance for Mrs. Clinton to end the slide in her favorability rating and show voters she’s a trustworthy, appealing figure. That’s not an easy task. Pollsters say Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump are the two most disliked presidential nominees in the last quarter-century.
Donald Trump Invites Russia To Hack Into Clinton's Emails
(Los Angeles Times) -- Donald Trump dared a foreign government to commit espionage on the U.S. to hurt his rival on Wednesday, smashing yet another taboo in American political discourse and behavior.
“Russia, if you're listening, I hope you’ll be able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing,” he said, referring to deleted emails from the private account Hillary Clinton used as secretary of State. “I think you’ll probably be rewarded mightily by our press.”
Trump made the taunt during a lengthy and unusual news conference in Doral, Fla., in which he also suggested the Geneva Convention treaties protecting prisoners of war are outdated, told a reporter asking a question to “be quiet” and said the fact that the Democratic National Committee may have been hacked was because foreign leaders lack respect for the U.S. government.
Concern Rising Russian Hackers Could Target Voting Machines
(Washingon Post) -- Russia was behind the hacks into the Democratic National Committee’s computer network that led to the release of thousands of internal emails just before the party’s convention began, U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded.
The FBI is investigating. WikiLeaks promises there is more data to come. The political nature of this cyberattack means that Democrats and Republicans are trying to spin this as much as possible. Even so, we have to accept that someone is attacking our nation’s computer systems in an apparent attempt to influence a presidential election. This kind of cyberattack targets the very core of our democratic process. And it points to the possibility of an even worse problem in November — that our election systems and our voting machines could be vulnerable to a similar attack.
If the intelligence community has indeed ascertained that Russia is to blame, our government needs to decide what to do in response. This is difficult because the attacks are politically partisan, but it is essential. If foreign governments learn that they can influence our elections with impunity, this opens the door for future manipulations, both document thefts and dumps like this one that we see and more subtle manipulations that we don’t see.
New polls today from Kansas, Missouri, Vermont, Delaware, Oregon and Ohio. The first two are solidly Republican, while the middle three are securely Democratic. Ohio, as usual, remains one of the classic swing states.
Currently, Clinton has a 236 to 152 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Utah: Trump up by 4.7%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.4%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 2.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from LA Times/USC (Trump +7) that represents Trump's biggest lead of the season.
The current composite polling average has Trump leading by 1.5%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Obama’s Speech Made The Best Case For Clinton
(Washingon Post) -- Eight years ago, Hillary Clinton united the Democratic Party behind Barack Obama, helping propel him to the presidency. Four years ago, when Obama was in a close race with Mitt Romney, Bill Clinton defended the president’s record in the most eloquent speech of the 2012 Democratic National Convention. At the time, Obama owed both Clintons a huge debt.
Now, after what will probably turn out to be the best speech of this year’s convention, Obama has paid Clinton back several times over.
Why was the president’s speech so effective? It’s not just that Obama personally vouched for her, though he did that plenty. “There has never been a man or a woman, not me, not Bill, nobody more qualified than Hillary Clinton to serve as president,” he said.
Hillary Clinton To Make Her Case At Convention’s Close
(Wall Street Journal) -- The importance of Hillary Clinton’s Thursday night speech wrapping up the Democratic presidential convention can’t be overstated.
Simply put, Mrs. Clinton won’t get this sort of opportunity again before the election. In the debates in the fall, she’ll share space and airtime with Republican nominee Donald Trump. On Thursday, she’ll have the stage to herself, speaking to a national TV audience in prime time as she officially accepts the Democratic presidential nomination.
Why does it matter so much? The speech is a chance for Mrs. Clinton to end the slide in her favorability rating and show voters she’s a trustworthy, appealing figure. That’s not an easy task. Pollsters say Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump are the two most disliked presidential nominees in the last quarter-century.
Donald Trump Invites Russia To Hack Into Clinton's Emails
(Los Angeles Times) -- Donald Trump dared a foreign government to commit espionage on the U.S. to hurt his rival on Wednesday, smashing yet another taboo in American political discourse and behavior.
“Russia, if you're listening, I hope you’ll be able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing,” he said, referring to deleted emails from the private account Hillary Clinton used as secretary of State. “I think you’ll probably be rewarded mightily by our press.”
Trump made the taunt during a lengthy and unusual news conference in Doral, Fla., in which he also suggested the Geneva Convention treaties protecting prisoners of war are outdated, told a reporter asking a question to “be quiet” and said the fact that the Democratic National Committee may have been hacked was because foreign leaders lack respect for the U.S. government.
Concern Rising Russian Hackers Could Target Voting Machines
(Washingon Post) -- Russia was behind the hacks into the Democratic National Committee’s computer network that led to the release of thousands of internal emails just before the party’s convention began, U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded.
The FBI is investigating. WikiLeaks promises there is more data to come. The political nature of this cyberattack means that Democrats and Republicans are trying to spin this as much as possible. Even so, we have to accept that someone is attacking our nation’s computer systems in an apparent attempt to influence a presidential election. This kind of cyberattack targets the very core of our democratic process. And it points to the possibility of an even worse problem in November — that our election systems and our voting machines could be vulnerable to a similar attack.
If the intelligence community has indeed ascertained that Russia is to blame, our government needs to decide what to do in response. This is difficult because the attacks are politically partisan, but it is essential. If foreign governments learn that they can influence our elections with impunity, this opens the door for future manipulations, both document thefts and dumps like this one that we see and more subtle manipulations that we don’t see.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
103 Days Till Election Day: New polls from from Indiana, Utah, New Hampshire
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Indiana, Utah and New Hampshire, with little overall change for each state. Trump still holds a solid lead in Indiana (+11) and remains fairly steady in Utah (down 0.2), while Clinton remains fairly steady in New Hampshire (up 0.1). But the big news (at least for our map) is the latest poll from Missouri, which moves the Show-Me State from lean to solid Republican.
Currently, Clinton has a 236 to 152 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Utah: Trump up by 4.7%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 0.3%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 2.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
Two new polls today, from NBC News/SM and Reuters/Ipsos, that have Trump ahead of Clinton, albeit just slightly (+2 in both). The current composite polling average has Trump up nationally by 0.7%, trending upward.
With seven separate post-convention polls now out, it appears the cumulative "bounce" was a swing of about 5% in Trump's favor, which is relatively standard. By this time next week, we'll be able to judge if the Democratic Convention will even out the bounce or if Trump will be able to maintain (or even build) on his momentum.
TOP POLITICAL STORIES
Clinton Nomination Puts 'Biggest Crack' In Glass Ceiling
(CNN) -- Democrats on Tuesday made Hillary Clinton the first woman to head a major party ticket -- and during an emotional night, her family and supporters asked voters to give her a second look.
At the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, just three miles from Independence Hall where the nation was born, a sense of history is palpable -- as is Clinton's willingness to finally enjoy it.
"What an incredible honor that you have given me, and I can't believe we just put the biggest crack in that glass ceiling yet," Clinton said via satellite after a video montage showed the faces of all 44 male presidents before shattering like glass to reveal Clinton waiting to address the convention from New York.
Bill Clinton Asks Voters To Embrace The 'Real' Hillary
(Politico) Bill Clinton delivered a forceful and deeply personal testimony on behalf of his wife, telling a rapt audience in Philadelphia and millions of American voters to reject Republicans’ caricature of Hillary Clinton and embrace “the real one.”
More than 15 years after he left the White House, the former president on Tuesday night warned that Donald Trump cannot be its next resident and that Hillary Clinton was the clear choice.
Toward the end of a 42-minute address packed with anecdotes and triumphs, Clinton asked a pointed question.
"Now, how does this square? How does this square with the things that you heard at the Republican convention? What is the difference in what I told you and what they said? How do you square it? You can't. One is real, the other is made up," Clinton said.
Barack Obama To Make Case For Hillary Clinton, His Legacy
(CNN) -- President Barack Obama's three Democratic convention speeches have, in succession, launched his national career, thrust him into the Oval Office and secured him a second term. On Wednesday, he'll work during his fourth marquee convention address to ensure those earlier efforts weren't for naught.
In his prime-time pitch for Hillary Clinton, Obama plans to argue not only for the Democratic nominee, but for the progressive policies that he's spent the last eight years enacting -- an agenda that will depend largely on his successor to maintain.
His message, according to those helping him prepare for the speech: Don't flush everything away with Donald Trump. Obama plans to draw on his long and complicated relationship with Clinton, which began as a rivalry but has evolved into what the pair hopes can become the first elected Democrat-to-Democrat presidential transition in modern history.
Sanders Loyalists Warn Democratic Party Could Rupture Over Clinton Nomination
(FOX News) -- Bernie Sanders loyalists warned that the Democratic Party could rupture over the nomination of Hillary Clinton after a volatile night that saw a large group of Sanders delegates and supporters exit the party's national convention to stage a sit-in at a nearby media tent.
They rejected Sanders' call for unity even after the Vermont senator took the symbolic step of declaring Clinton the winner of the state-by-state delegate count inside the convention in Philadelphia.
"I suspect we are witnessing an event that will fundamentally change American politics," said Cory James, 22, a college student from Flint, Michigan, who expects the Democratic Party to break apart over Clinton's victory.
New polls today from Indiana, Utah and New Hampshire, with little overall change for each state. Trump still holds a solid lead in Indiana (+11) and remains fairly steady in Utah (down 0.2), while Clinton remains fairly steady in New Hampshire (up 0.1). But the big news (at least for our map) is the latest poll from Missouri, which moves the Show-Me State from lean to solid Republican.
Currently, Clinton has a 236 to 152 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Utah: Trump up by 4.7%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 0.3%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 2.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
Two new polls today, from NBC News/SM and Reuters/Ipsos, that have Trump ahead of Clinton, albeit just slightly (+2 in both). The current composite polling average has Trump up nationally by 0.7%, trending upward.
With seven separate post-convention polls now out, it appears the cumulative "bounce" was a swing of about 5% in Trump's favor, which is relatively standard. By this time next week, we'll be able to judge if the Democratic Convention will even out the bounce or if Trump will be able to maintain (or even build) on his momentum.
TOP POLITICAL STORIES
Clinton Nomination Puts 'Biggest Crack' In Glass Ceiling
(CNN) -- Democrats on Tuesday made Hillary Clinton the first woman to head a major party ticket -- and during an emotional night, her family and supporters asked voters to give her a second look.
At the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, just three miles from Independence Hall where the nation was born, a sense of history is palpable -- as is Clinton's willingness to finally enjoy it.
"What an incredible honor that you have given me, and I can't believe we just put the biggest crack in that glass ceiling yet," Clinton said via satellite after a video montage showed the faces of all 44 male presidents before shattering like glass to reveal Clinton waiting to address the convention from New York.
Bill Clinton Asks Voters To Embrace The 'Real' Hillary
(Politico) Bill Clinton delivered a forceful and deeply personal testimony on behalf of his wife, telling a rapt audience in Philadelphia and millions of American voters to reject Republicans’ caricature of Hillary Clinton and embrace “the real one.”
More than 15 years after he left the White House, the former president on Tuesday night warned that Donald Trump cannot be its next resident and that Hillary Clinton was the clear choice.
Toward the end of a 42-minute address packed with anecdotes and triumphs, Clinton asked a pointed question.
"Now, how does this square? How does this square with the things that you heard at the Republican convention? What is the difference in what I told you and what they said? How do you square it? You can't. One is real, the other is made up," Clinton said.
Barack Obama To Make Case For Hillary Clinton, His Legacy
(CNN) -- President Barack Obama's three Democratic convention speeches have, in succession, launched his national career, thrust him into the Oval Office and secured him a second term. On Wednesday, he'll work during his fourth marquee convention address to ensure those earlier efforts weren't for naught.
In his prime-time pitch for Hillary Clinton, Obama plans to argue not only for the Democratic nominee, but for the progressive policies that he's spent the last eight years enacting -- an agenda that will depend largely on his successor to maintain.
His message, according to those helping him prepare for the speech: Don't flush everything away with Donald Trump. Obama plans to draw on his long and complicated relationship with Clinton, which began as a rivalry but has evolved into what the pair hopes can become the first elected Democrat-to-Democrat presidential transition in modern history.
Sanders Loyalists Warn Democratic Party Could Rupture Over Clinton Nomination
(FOX News) -- Bernie Sanders loyalists warned that the Democratic Party could rupture over the nomination of Hillary Clinton after a volatile night that saw a large group of Sanders delegates and supporters exit the party's national convention to stage a sit-in at a nearby media tent.
They rejected Sanders' call for unity even after the Vermont senator took the symbolic step of declaring Clinton the winner of the state-by-state delegate count inside the convention in Philadelphia.
"I suspect we are witnessing an event that will fundamentally change American politics," said Cory James, 22, a college student from Flint, Michigan, who expects the Democratic Party to break apart over Clinton's victory.
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
104 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Georgia, Nevada, Ohio
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Georgia, Nevada and Ohio. All three showed Trump in the lead, to the point where Nevada flips to leaning GOP in our map (just barely), and Ohio is also virtually tied. However, his cumulative lead has fallen by a point in Georgia, which means the Peach State could be in play for the first time since the other Clinton was in the presidential race.
Currently, Clinton has a 236 to 142 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.9%
Utah: Trump up by 4.8%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 0.3%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 2.3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
Three new polls today: CBS News (Trump +1), Economist/YouGov (Clinton +2), and LA Times/USC (Trump +4). A mixed bag, but the post-convention "bounce" has definitely moved the needle in Trump's favor.
The current composite polling average now has Trump up nationally by 0.5%, trending upward.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Democrats Pull Convention Back From The Brink
(Politico) -- Bernie Sanders loyalists heckled and hassled Democratic stars all day. But when Sanders himself addressed the Democratic National Convention on Monday, the party's nightmarish day finally brightened.
"Hillary Clinton must become the next president of the United States," Sanders boomed. And delegates, for the most part, cheered his call.
That was the clearest sign of an easing after an excruciating day of failed attempts at projecting unity following the divisive and protracted Democratic primary.
Michelle Obama: 'When They Go Low, We Go High'
(CNN) -- Michelle Obama cast the presidential race as one between a positive role model for children -- in Hillary Clinton -- and a damaging one -- in Donald Trump -- in the marquee speech on the Democratic National Convention's opening night.
The first lady never mentioned Trump by name, but leveraging her popularity, she made a rare, if not unprecedented, foray into partisan politics to knock the Republican nominee. Obama condemned "the hateful language that we hear from public figures on TV," saying that "our motto is, when they go low, we go high."
And in a shot at Trump's "Make America Great Again" campaign slogan, Obama discussed raising her children in a White House that was built by slaves. "Don't let anyone tell you that this country isn't great. This right now is the greatest country on earth," the first lady said.
Bernie Sanders: 'Hillary Clinton Must Become The Next President'
(USA Today) -- Sen. Bernie Sanders, working to rally his supporters behind former rival Hillary Clinton, on Monday addressed head-on their disappointment with his second-place finish in the Democratic presidential primaries.
“I understand that many people here in this convention hall and around the country are disappointed about the final results of the nominating process,” the Vermont senator said in remarks at the Democratic National Convention. “I think it’s fair to say that no one is more disappointed than I am. But to all of our supporters – here and around the country – I hope you take enormous pride in the historical accomplishments we have achieved. Together, my friends, we have begun a political revolution to transform America and that revolution – our revolution – continues.”
Sanders, who was greeted by his campaign signs and chants of "Bernie," said this election is about which candidate understands "the real problems facing this country and has offered real solutions – not just bombast, fear-mongering, name-calling and divisiveness." He said the country needs leadership to improve the lives of working families, children, the elderly, the sick and poor and that brings people together.
FBI Confirms Investigation Into Massive Hack of DNC
(ABC News) -- The FBI has acknowledged that it is investigating a massive breach of the Democratic National Committee's computers, which sources and experts say was likely the work of government hackers in Russia.
Not only did the hack apparently allow the cyber operatives to steal opposition research on Republican nominee Donald Trump, but also, many suspect, it led to the theft of internal messages that show efforts by DNC officials to undermine Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders during the primary season. Those damaging emails have since been released by WikiLeaks, agitating Sanders supporters at the start of the Democratic convention in Philadelphia and prompting DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz to tender her resignation, effective at the end of the week.
"The FBI is investigating a cyber intrusion involving the DNC and are working to determine the nature and scope of the matter," the FBI said in a statement today. "A compromise of this nature is something we take very seriously, and the FBI will continue to investigate and hold accountable those who pose a threat in cyberspace."
New polls today from Georgia, Nevada and Ohio. All three showed Trump in the lead, to the point where Nevada flips to leaning GOP in our map (just barely), and Ohio is also virtually tied. However, his cumulative lead has fallen by a point in Georgia, which means the Peach State could be in play for the first time since the other Clinton was in the presidential race.
Currently, Clinton has a 236 to 142 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.9%
Utah: Trump up by 4.8%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.4%
Ohio: Clinton up by 0.3%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 2.3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
Three new polls today: CBS News (Trump +1), Economist/YouGov (Clinton +2), and LA Times/USC (Trump +4). A mixed bag, but the post-convention "bounce" has definitely moved the needle in Trump's favor.
The current composite polling average now has Trump up nationally by 0.5%, trending upward.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Democrats Pull Convention Back From The Brink
(Politico) -- Bernie Sanders loyalists heckled and hassled Democratic stars all day. But when Sanders himself addressed the Democratic National Convention on Monday, the party's nightmarish day finally brightened.
"Hillary Clinton must become the next president of the United States," Sanders boomed. And delegates, for the most part, cheered his call.
That was the clearest sign of an easing after an excruciating day of failed attempts at projecting unity following the divisive and protracted Democratic primary.
Michelle Obama: 'When They Go Low, We Go High'
(CNN) -- Michelle Obama cast the presidential race as one between a positive role model for children -- in Hillary Clinton -- and a damaging one -- in Donald Trump -- in the marquee speech on the Democratic National Convention's opening night.
The first lady never mentioned Trump by name, but leveraging her popularity, she made a rare, if not unprecedented, foray into partisan politics to knock the Republican nominee. Obama condemned "the hateful language that we hear from public figures on TV," saying that "our motto is, when they go low, we go high."
And in a shot at Trump's "Make America Great Again" campaign slogan, Obama discussed raising her children in a White House that was built by slaves. "Don't let anyone tell you that this country isn't great. This right now is the greatest country on earth," the first lady said.
Bernie Sanders: 'Hillary Clinton Must Become The Next President'
(USA Today) -- Sen. Bernie Sanders, working to rally his supporters behind former rival Hillary Clinton, on Monday addressed head-on their disappointment with his second-place finish in the Democratic presidential primaries.
“I understand that many people here in this convention hall and around the country are disappointed about the final results of the nominating process,” the Vermont senator said in remarks at the Democratic National Convention. “I think it’s fair to say that no one is more disappointed than I am. But to all of our supporters – here and around the country – I hope you take enormous pride in the historical accomplishments we have achieved. Together, my friends, we have begun a political revolution to transform America and that revolution – our revolution – continues.”
Sanders, who was greeted by his campaign signs and chants of "Bernie," said this election is about which candidate understands "the real problems facing this country and has offered real solutions – not just bombast, fear-mongering, name-calling and divisiveness." He said the country needs leadership to improve the lives of working families, children, the elderly, the sick and poor and that brings people together.
FBI Confirms Investigation Into Massive Hack of DNC
(ABC News) -- The FBI has acknowledged that it is investigating a massive breach of the Democratic National Committee's computers, which sources and experts say was likely the work of government hackers in Russia.
Not only did the hack apparently allow the cyber operatives to steal opposition research on Republican nominee Donald Trump, but also, many suspect, it led to the theft of internal messages that show efforts by DNC officials to undermine Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders during the primary season. Those damaging emails have since been released by WikiLeaks, agitating Sanders supporters at the start of the Democratic convention in Philadelphia and prompting DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz to tender her resignation, effective at the end of the week.
"The FBI is investigating a cyber intrusion involving the DNC and are working to determine the nature and scope of the matter," the FBI said in a statement today. "A compromise of this nature is something we take very seriously, and the FBI will continue to investigate and hold accountable those who pose a threat in cyberspace."
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