State Polling
New poll today from Vermont, with Clinton opening up a 15 point lead over Trump.
Currently, Clinton has a 233 to 142 projected electoral lead over Trump with 163 still in play.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Utah: Trump up by 5%
Kansas: Trump up by 3.45%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 0.75%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 4.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.8%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.6%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
National Polling
No new national polls today. Currently, our composite polling average has Clinton up by 6.3%.
Several people have asked about expanding national polling that took into account Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. I do keep a separate spreadsheet that has the extended poll, where Clinton has a 5.5% composite lead.
It appears that Johnson's supporters are coming just about equally from the right and left, shaving at most a point off of Clinton's lead over Trump), and as such does not appear to have a "spoiler affect" on the race (such as Ross Perot a generation ago).
Also, his support wavers dramatically depending on pollster: Pew Research has him with 11% support while Economist/YouGov has him at just 4%. Other polls in the past week include Rasmussen Reports (9%). Reuters/Ipsos (6%), and USA Today/Suffolk (8%).
For Johnson to have a real impact on the race, he'll need to start polling in the 15-20% range to get invited to the three presidential debates, and would then have to start pulling support from one candidate much more than the other (specifically in the battleground states). Without either of those things happening, I'll continue to monitor his numbers but stick with the "Clinton vs Trump" presumptive match-up.
Top Political Headlines
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Strike Different Tones After Dallas Shooting
(New York Times) -- The ambush that left five police officers dead at a protest in Dallas on Thursday has altered the contours of the presidential campaign, with Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump canceling political events on Friday and striking different tones about the killings.
Mr. Trump called the episode “an attack on our country,” and Mrs. Clinton used it as evidence of the need for “more love and kindness.”
“We must stand in solidarity with law enforcement, which we must remember is the force between civilization and total chaos,” Mr. Trump said in a video statement that his campaign released to TV networks on Friday evening.
NYPD Turns Down Request For Donald Trump To Address Officers
(Washington Post) -- Following the mass shooting in Dallas and killing of five law enforcement officers, Donald Trump's campaign reached out to the New York Police Department on Friday morning and asked whether he could address police officers at the Midtown North Precinct during 3 p.m. roll call, according to the New York Daily News.
The campaign was firmly turned down — and Bill Bratton, the police commissioner, explained why during a news conference in New York.
"Our interest is staying out of the politics of the moment, not to provide photo ops," Bratton said in response to a question from a reporter. "If Mr. Trump wants to speak to me, I would be happy to brief him on what we’re doing. If Sen. Clinton wants to speak to me, I would be very happy to brief her on what we’re doing. But we are not in the business of providing photo ops for our candidates.”
Sanders Takes Aim At Democratic Platform
(Politico) -- Bernie Sanders has one big demand when the Democratic National Committee's full platform committee meets in Orlando on Friday: Put the party on record as strongly opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
When the 187-member panel considers amendments to the draft platform hammered out by the 15-person drafting committee, Sanders’ allies will look to push a long list of policy tweaks: a carbon tax, a ban on fracking and language promising to expand Medicare.
Opposing TPP — the sweeping 12-nation trade deal negotiated by the Obama administration — is the biggest prize.
Rubio Breaks Bread With Former Fierce Rival Trump
(Miami Herald) -- On Friday, for the first time since the end of their sharp rivalry, Marco Rubio joined Donald Trump on the presidential campaign trail as one of Trump’s lunch guests at Miami’s Versailles Cuban restaurant.
Rubio’s attendance, confirmed to the Miami Herald by Trump’s campaign and Rubio’s Senate re-election campaign, is a significant coup for Trump, whose Miami trip is intended to smooth over relations with local Hispanics deeply dubious of his presumptive Republican nomination. Rubio is South Florida’s highest-ranking GOP politician.
For Rubio, appearing with Trump is a chance to underscore the commitment he has pledged to his party’s standard-bearer — without having to publicly advocate on Trump’s behalf. The lunch was private and closed to the news media. Rubio dropped out of the presidential contest after losing the March 15 Florida primary to Trump in a rout.
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