STATE POLLING
New state polls today from Michigan, New York and Idaho. No real surprises here, as the first two remain solid blue, and the latter remains just as solidly red.
Currently, Clinton has a 236 to 136 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 347 to 191. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Kansas: Trump up by 5.8%
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.9%
Utah: Trump up by 4.8%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 2.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 3.7%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
Three new polls today, which three interesting results, especially when one takes into account the Libertarian and Green parties, which are beginning to have a more noticeable effect.
The Economist/YouGov has two polls: one has Clinton up by 4 over Trump, while the other (which includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein) has her up by just 3. And while a one point difference may not seem like math, NBC News' two polls show just what a difference third-parties can make: head-to-head, Clinton leads Trump by 1, but when adding in Johnson and Stein, Trump swings that around to lead Clinton by 1.
And then there's the LA Times, which drops a poll showing Trump up by 1 in a head-to-head with Clinton and no one else (something that has become the outlier polling method over the past month).
And since I'm using the four-candidate polling numbers (when available) in my averaging, the current composite polling average has Clinton up nationally by just 3%, and trending downward.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Republican Party Formally Nominates Donald Trump
(Politico) -- Donald Trump is presumptive nominee no more. The Republican Party officially nominated the real estate mogul during a relatively smooth roll call vote on Tuesday, quashing the hopes of the Never Trump movement that had threatened to mount a last-minute challenge.
Instead, Trump sailed to the 1,237-delegate threshold, with his home state of New York putting him over the top. Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., announced the 89 delegates that formally clinched the nomination for his dad, as his siblings proudly looked on.
“It is my honor to be able to throw Donald Trump over the top in the delegate count tonight with 89 delegates,” Trump Jr. said from the floor of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. “Congratulations, Dad. We love you.”
Donald Trump Jr. Breaks Out On National Stage
(Politico) -- On Tuesday night, a political star may have been born. Donald Trump Jr. delivered a powerful testimonial for his father on the second night of the Republican National Convention, casting him as an everyman who hasn’t forgotten his Queens roots while raising his own national profile on a high-stakes night.
Hours after the younger Trump cast the decisive New York delegation votes sealing his father’s nomination, he doubled down with the rousing speech. Trump Jr. has taken an active interest in his family’s first political campaign, making himself a crucial adviser along with his adult siblings, and the speech drew immediate suggestions that he should run for office himself.
“Perhaps Donald Trump Jr. should run? His speech was excellent,” tweeted politically active talk show host Montel Williams, a frequent critic of Trump Sr.
What The Plagiarism Controversy Tells Us About Trump's Campaign
(CNN) -- The Trump campaign descended into a familiar messiness after Melania Trump delivered a convention speech Monday echoing lines from Michelle Obama's 2008 convention address.
On the tumultuous day that followed, Donald Trump was furious. Melania Trump was humiliated. And the campaign, which had appeared to be on the path to becoming a more organized, disciplined operation, was back on its heels, dealing with swirling accusations and internal finger-pointing that yielded no real answers about what happened.
There was no immediate sign of a campaign shakeup Wednesday and it remains unclear whether the incident will have a lasting effect. But it is yet another unsettling episode for the Trump campaign at a time when many top donors are closely watching Trump and his operation to determine whether it is worth their investment this fall.
Clinton Closes In On VP Choice
(CNN) -- Hillary Clinton is spending two days at home in New York, finalizing her decision for a running mate, before formally introducing her Democratic ticket during a weekend campaign swing in Florida, according to several Democrats familiar with the search.
Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack have emerged as leading contenders after a rigorous vetting process, Democrats close to the selection believe, but they are not the only two prospects still in contention.
"The conventional wisdom in this case seems likely to be right," one Democrat close to Clinton told CNN, believing Kaine has the upper hand but cautioning that Clinton could still deliver a surprise. Clinton has not made her final decision, an aide said, or if she has, she has not disclosed it. Even the small universe of advisers working on the selection process, who are making plans to help on the announcement, are not certain who she will choose.
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