STATE POLLING
New polls today from California and Missouri. While Clinton easily maintains a +20 lead in the Golden State, the news from Missouri is much more surprising. Just as the recent polling had moved the Show Me State out of battleground status in favor of Trump, this new poll swings everything back towards Clinton. As such, this puts Missouri back into the battleground map above, though still leaning-GOP.
Currently, Clinton has a 256 to 142 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Utah: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from Reuters/Ipsos that has Clinton and Trump tied in a four-candidate race, but has Clinton up +5 head-to-head with Trump. As regular readers of this blog know, I use the four-candidate numbers (when available) in my cumulative averaging, so the current composite polling average now has Trump leading by 1.9%, trending upwards.
One note: Don't expect to see any polling that reflects a post-convention "bounce" (or not) from the recently concluded DNC until Monday at the earliest, and then it will be a week before we can get a true gauge on the impact (if any) of the convention on the national race.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
100 Days To Go In Volatile Race
(The Hill) -- One hundred days from now, either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be elected president. In such a volatile political year, the outcome is anyone’s guess.
Clinton and Trump are hampered by the worst favorability ratings for nominees in modern times, though both have committed, fervent supporters.
The electoral map and the shifting demographics of the United States appear to favor Clinton, particularly because Trump is struggling mightily to attract support from minority voters.
But a nation hungry for change could rally to Trump, the consummate outsider. A Pew Research Center poll last month found that 71 percent of adults are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the nation.
Clinton Campaign Denies Reports Computer System Hacked
(Washington Post) -- The Clinton presidential campaign said Friday that an “analytics data program” maintained by the Democratic National Committee had been hacked but that its computer system had not been compromised, denying news reports from earlier in the day that the campaign had become the third Democratic Party organization whose systems had been penetrated.
So far, campaign computer experts “have found no evidence that our internal systems have been compromised,” campaign spokesman Nick Merrill said in a statement.
Merrill said that “an analytics data program maintained by the DNC and used by our campaign and a number of other entities was accessed as part of the DNC hack.” The campaign did not provide details, but a source familiar with the situation said that the hacked material was generally dull and did not include email communications, memos, research or other potentially inflammatory communications. Mostly, the source said, it included innocuous data such as computer code and lists of email addresses.
Federal Appeals Court Strikes Down North Carolina Voter ID Requirement
(New York Times) -- A federal appeals court decisively struck down North Carolina’s voter identification law on Friday, saying its provisions deliberately “target African-Americans with almost surgical precision” in an effort to depress black turnout at the polls.
The sweeping 83-page decision by a panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit upended voting procedures in a battleground state about three months before Election Day. That ruling and a second wide-ranging decision on Friday, in Wisconsin, continued a string of recent court opinions against restrictive voting laws that critics say were created solely to keep minority and other traditionally Democratic voters away from the polls.
The North Carolina ruling tossed out the state’s requirement that voters present photo identification at the polls and restored voters’ ability to register on Election Day, to register before reaching the 18-year-old voting age, and to cast early ballots, provisions the law had fully or partly eliminated.
Trump Accuses Clinton of Rigging Debate Schedule
(Politico) -- Donald Trump late Friday accused Hillary Clinton of intentionally stacking debates against primetime programming to “rig” the election process, despite the fact that the schedule has been set since last September.
“As usual, Hillary & the Dems are trying to rig the debates so 2 are up against major NFL games. Same as last time w/ Bernie. Unacceptable!” Trump tweeted late Friday night.
The preliminary debate schedule for the general election has been set since September, 2015, by the non-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates. The schedule includes a Sunday night debate on Oct. 9 that will air concurrently with an NFL game between the Green Bay Packers and the North Carolina Panthers.
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