STATE POLLING
One new poll today, from Kansas, that has moved the Sunflower State solidly into the GOP camp and off the battleground map.
With the change, Clinton now has a 236 to 142 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 347 to 191. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.9%
Utah: Trump up by 4.8%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 2.3%
Ohio: Clinton up by 2.6%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2.6%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
On a side note, one of my favorite websites, electoral-vote.com, has (finally) started their daily tracking electoral map. They currently have Clinton with a 190 to 103 "safe" lead and a projected lead of 312 to 197 with Florida's 29 electoral votes completely up from grabs.
Where we differ is more a matter of degree -- the only place where we really differ is Iowa (I have it light blue, they have it light red), while the rest of the differences are minor (they are using a slightly higher threshold than I am to assign "lean" status to certain states).
All in all, though, a very solid map from a site that is not only a daily must-read for political junkies, but also one with a very solid track record from past elections. Highly recommended.
NATIONAL POLLING
One new poll today from CNN/ORC that has Trump up +5 in a four-way match-up, up +3 head-to-head vs Clinton. This is the second post-convention poll and shows a bigger "bounce" for Trump than yesterday's Gravis poll.
With this poll, the current composite polling average now has Clinton up nationally by just 0.9%, trending downward.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Michael Bloomberg to Endorse Hillary Clinton for President
(Wall Street Journal) -- Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who considered an independent presidential run this year, will endorse Democrat Hillary Clinton and speak at her convention this week.
Mr. Bloomberg hasn’t been a Democrat since 2000, when he left the party to run for mayor as a Republican. He later became an independent.
He decided to appear at the convention because of his deep concerns about the prospect of Republican Donald Trump being elected, said Howard Wolfson, a Bloomberg adviser. “He will certainly make a strong case why he thinks she is the far better choice.”
DNC Chairwoman To Resign In Aftermath Of Email Controversy
(Washington Post) -- The Democratic National Committee chairwoman resigned under fire Sunday, on the eve of a national convention meant to project competence and unity in contrast to the turbulence of the Republicans’ gathering last week.
The disarray threatened to upend Hillary Clinton’s plan to paint the Democrats as the party best prepared to lead a divided and anxious country and herself as the leader who can offer an optimistic alternative to Republican Donald Trump.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida was forced aside by the release of thousands of embarrassing emails among party officials that appeared to show coordinated efforts to help Clinton at the expense of her rivals in the Democratic primaries. That contradicted claims by the party and the Clinton campaign that the process was open and fair for her leading challenger, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
How Putin Weaponized Wikileaks to Influence the Election
(Defense One) -- Close your eyes and imagine that a hacking group backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin broke into the email system of a major U.S. political party. The group stole thousands of sensitive messages and then published them through an obliging third party in a way that was strategically timed to influence the United States presidential election. Now open your eyes, because that’s what just happened.
On Friday, Wikileaks published 20,000 emails stolen from the Democratic National Committee. They reveal, among other things, thuggish infighting, a push by a top DNC official to use Bernie Sanders’ religious convictions against him in the South, and attempts to strong-arm media outlets. In other words, they reveal the Washington campaign monster for what it is.
But leave aside the purported content of the Wikileaks data dump (to which numerous other outlets have devoted considerable attention) and consider the source. Considerable evidence shows that the Wikileaks dump was an orchestrated act by the Russian government, working through proxies, to undermine Hillary Clinton’s Presidential campaign.
Al Gore To Skip Democratic Convention
(Politico) -- Al Gore’s self-imposed exile from politics will extend to this week’s Democratic National Convention.
Citing “obligations in Tennessee,” the former vice president’s spokeswoman told POLITICO that Gore plans to skip the festivities in Philadelphia where his former boss’s wife will accept the Democratic presidential nomination. The Tennessean first reported Gore's decision earlier Sunday.
Gore remains one of the last Democratic Party luminaries not to make a formal endorsement of Hillary Clinton. Betsy McManus, Gore’s communications director, told POLITICO last fall that he’d wait until a nominee had been formally selected to weigh in. But it’s been more than a month since Clinton sewed up the necessary delegates, and Gore has maintained his silence on the 2016 presidential race.
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