STATE POLLING
New polls today from California, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, and New Hampshire. The biggest takeaways from this recent batch of polls is that Pennsylvania has moved out of battleground status, New Hampshire has become an all but virtual tie, and Nevada (along with Arizona and Utah) have become the new battleground states of the West.
With the exception of New Hampshire (which may be an outlier poll -- we'll see what the next few polls report), the other news is decidedly not good for the Trump campaign, specifically the Pennsylvania polling. To put it bluntly, there is virtually no path to victory for the GOP that does not include winning Pennsylvania.
Add in 5% or higher leads for Clinton in Virginia and Florida (the big prize), and you can see why I don't trust all the recent "Trump Is Going To Win!" news stories, even those from other prediction sites. The electoral math -- as it stands now -- simply does not support such a supposition.
With Pennsylvania moving to solid blue, Clinton now has a 256 to 152 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Utah: Trump up by 4.7%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
One new poll today, from Rasmussen, which is well-known for having a Republican "house effect" of between two to five points in favor of the GOP. Which makes it quite surprising that they now have Clinton ahead by one, reversing a week-long trend of polls favoring Trump.
Has the Democratic Convention polling "bounce" already begun? We shall see...
The current composite polling average has Trump leading by 1.5%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Clinton’s Big Moment Wraps Up Convention
(Washington Post) -- It was a moment America had never seen: a woman accepting a major party’s nomination for president.
Hillary Clinton accepted the Democratic nomination Thursday, pledging to unite a divided country and casting herself as a tested, steady hand in troubled times. She said she would work to improve the lives of all Americans, not just those at the top.
She closed a convention that tested the party’s ability to unify after a divisive primary fight. After a rocky opening day featuring protests and jeers, the opposition settled down, but never faded completely.
How Hillary Clinton Defined Her Historic Moment
(CNN) -- As Hillary Clinton playfully batted away an avalanche of balloons Thursday night, she appeared proud, happy and reconciled to her historic moment.
She had accepted the Democratic nomination with "humility, determination and boundless confidence in America's promise," taking her place as the first woman to lead a major presidential ticket on a night pulsating with emotion.
"When there are no ceilings," she declared, "the sky's the limit."
Her speech lacked the poetic sweep of the President Barack Obama's address Wednesday, but it was in keeping with someone who presents herself as a practical, dogged, policy-oriented striver who gets knocked down and then gets straight back up.
Trump Accuses Dems of Pitching ‘Fantasy World’
(The Hill) -- Donald Trump says the Democratic Party's optimistic worldview portrayed at its national convention this week is a fantasy.
"At Hillary Clinton’s convention this week, Democrats have been speaking about a world that doesn’t exist," Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, said in a statement Thursday afternoon, shortly before Clinton’s presidential nomination acceptance speech on the last night of the convention.
"A world where America has full employment, where there’s no such thing as radical Islamic terrorism, where the border is totally secured, and where thousands of innocent Americans have not suffered from rising crime in cities like Baltimore and Chicago."
Trump Wants To 'Hit' DNC Speakers Who Disparaged Him
(CNN) -- Donald Trump, after hearing speeches at the Democratic convention this week, said Thursday he wanted to "hit a number of those speakers so hard, their heads would spin."
"They'd never recover," he said. Trump often uses the term "hit" to mean verbally attack, rather than physical contact.
The Republican nominee zoomed in on one speaker especially, though he didn't mention his name.
"I was going to hit one guy in particular, a very little guy," Trump said to laughs at a campaign rally in Davenport, Iowa. "I was going to hit this guy so hard his head would spin, he wouldn't know what the hell happened."
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