STATE POLLING
New battleground polls today from Missouri (Trump +5), Alaska (Trump +1, Clinton +4), Maine CD2 (Clinton +3), Utah (Trump +2), Ohio (Clinton +1), Arizona (Trump +2, Trump +2), Florida (Clinton +1, Clinton +4, Clinton +1, Clinton +2, Trump +4), North Carolina (Clinton +6, Clinton +2, Clinton +3), Colorado (Clinton +3), Pennsylvania (Clinton +8, Clinton +4), New Hampshire (Clinton +9), Wisconsin (Clinton +6), and Michigan (Clinton +7 and Clinton +6).
First off, you may be wondering why I have Alaska listed among the battleground states. The reason, quite surprisingly to just about everyone, is that it has indeed become one...and a remarkably close one at that. And this was based on two polls from different groups, which helps lend credence that it's not just an outlier result.
Granted, I give the chances of Clinton flipping Alaska to be a remote as the state itself, and the 3 electoral votes up for grabs likely won't matter much either way, but the fact that a state which hasn't gone Democratic since the Johnson landslide of 1964 is now in play is quite remarkable.
In Utah, Evan McMullin has pulled to within 2% of Trump, which means he has a more than decent change of being the first independent candidate since George Wallace in 1968 to win any electoral votes. And Utah is a state that has been as reliably Republican as Alaska, with does not bode well for the Trump campaign (and presages the upcoming battle for control and future direction of the Republican Party itself).
Perusing through the rest of the polls -- which include five from Florida, three from North Carolina, and two each from Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan -- we see a bit of last minute movement. Trump has regained the upper hand (just barely) in Arizona and brought Michigan back into play (also just barely), while Clinton has made Alaska a battleground (somewhat), and brought Missouri back into play (again, just barely).
There's an overall tightening of the race, which is generally expected in the final week of any election as the few remaining undecideds finally admit to pollsters who they plan to vote for, but this weekend was also complicated by the furor over FBI Director James Comey's startling (and unprecedented) news about finding "new" Clinton emails on an aide's computer.
The letter Comey sent to Congress has re-energized the Republican candidates across the board and sent Clinton and her allies into defense mode when they had planned to spend the final week riding the wave of expected victory and focus on helping downballot Democratic candidates. Whether or not anything ever comes out of the latest email "find" will likely not be known for months, but the effect wrought by Comey's awkwardly written letter is already being seen.
There are also new polls today from Idaho (Trump +12), Louisiana (Trump +14), Maine CD1 (Clinton +20), and Vermont (Clinton +26), for those of you who are poll completists.
Several changes to the map today: Alaska and Missouri move from "solid" to "likely" Republican, Arizona flips from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican, and Michigan moves from "solid" to "likely" Democratic.
Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 216. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Missouri: Trump up by 6.8%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.1%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.3%
Utah: Trump up by 3%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.6%
Arizona: Trump up by 0.3%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 1.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.1%
Likely Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 4.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.8%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 6.5%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from ABC News (Clinton +1) and IDP/TIPP (Clinton +2).
The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 4%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton seeks to use new FBI inquiry as galvanizing force
Even before FBI Director James Comey jolted the presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton and her advisers were on edge. Never mind that preference polls had Clinton ahead of Republican Donald Trump nationally and in nearly every battleground state.
CNN -- FBI discovered Clinton-related emails weeks ago
The FBI stumbled upon a trove of emails from one of Hillary Clinton's top aides weeks ago, law enforcement officials told CNN Sunday. But FBI Director James Comey didn't disclose the discovery until Friday, raising questions about why the information was kept under wraps and then released only days before the election.
Fox News -- 34 percent 'less likely' to vote for Clinton after new email revelations
A poll released Sunday shows more than 30 percent of likely voters say they are less inclined to support Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton after revelations Friday about the FBI reviewing newly-discovered emails potentially related to Clinton's tenure as secretary of state.
Politico -- Reid: FBI director 'may have broken the law'
FBI Director James Comey "may have broken the law" by showing favoritism to Republicans in announcing new investigative steps regarding Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid alleged on Sunday evening.
The Hill -- FBI drama injects uncertainty into frantic final week of race
The presidential campaign is entering its final full week amid high drama and volatility, as both sides grapple with the fallout from the FBI’s announcement that it is examining newly discovered emails that “appear to be pertinent” to an earlier investigation of Hillary Clinton.
Monday, October 31, 2016
Sunday, October 30, 2016
Countdown To Election Day: New polls from Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Florida (Clinton +1), Ohio (tied), North Carolina (Clinton +3), Nevada (Clinton +2), Wisconsin (Clinton +6), Pennsylvania (Clinton +6), and Minnesota (Clinton +10).
With the exception of Ohio, Clinton is ahead in all of today's polls, but by much smaller margins than even just a week ago. Because, as has been said many many times before, a week in politics is an eternity, and everyone today seems focused on yet another Clinton email kerfluffle.
Whether this will have any effect on the raced depends largely on whether there is actually any fire to all the smoke...and even then, with early voting well underway and an intensely partisan makeup of supporter for each candidate, chances are anything short of an email offering to sell the Washington Monument to Iran will have little actual effect on the election.
As is stands, Florida has moved from "tied" to "leaning" Democrat by the thinnest of margins,. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 333 to 205.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.4%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.3%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.1%
Arizona: Clinton up by 0.5%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.3%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.8%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6.2%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.4%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 6.5%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from ABC News (Clinton +2) and IDB/TIPP (Clinton +4).
The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.4%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton pushes back against 'unprecedented' new FBI review
Hillary Clinton lashed out Saturday at the FBI's handling of a new email review, leading a chorus of Democratic leaders who declared the bureau's actions just days before the election "unprecedented" and "deeply troubling."
CNN -- Comey notified Congress of email probe despite DOJ concerns
Attorney General Loretta Lynch and Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates disagreed with FBI Director James Comey's decision to notify Congress about his bureau's review of emails potentially related to Hillary Clinton's personal server, law enforcement officials familiar with the discussion said.
Fox News -- FBI revisiting Clinton emails just latest in long history of 'October Surprises'
We’ve seen this all before. Everyone is apoplectic about how crazy the presidential campaign is. How crazy the congressional campaigns are. And then the dramatic FBI email news just days before the election.
Politico -- Democrats declare open season on Jim Comey
Hillary Clinton and her aides and allies forcefully criticized FBI Director James Comey on Saturday, demanding that he release more information about the bureau’s discovery of Clinton-related emails and criticizing him for bad timing.
The Hill -- Justice Dept. warned FBI against letter on Clinton emails
FBI Director James Comey went against the wishes of Attorney General Loretta Lynch when he sent a letter to lawmakers Friday notifying them that the agency was reviewing new emails “pertinent” to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server.
New polls today from Florida (Clinton +1), Ohio (tied), North Carolina (Clinton +3), Nevada (Clinton +2), Wisconsin (Clinton +6), Pennsylvania (Clinton +6), and Minnesota (Clinton +10).
With the exception of Ohio, Clinton is ahead in all of today's polls, but by much smaller margins than even just a week ago. Because, as has been said many many times before, a week in politics is an eternity, and everyone today seems focused on yet another Clinton email kerfluffle.
Whether this will have any effect on the raced depends largely on whether there is actually any fire to all the smoke...and even then, with early voting well underway and an intensely partisan makeup of supporter for each candidate, chances are anything short of an email offering to sell the Washington Monument to Iran will have little actual effect on the election.
As is stands, Florida has moved from "tied" to "leaning" Democrat by the thinnest of margins,. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 333 to 205.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.4%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.3%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.1%
Arizona: Clinton up by 0.5%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.3%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.8%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6.2%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.4%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 6.5%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from ABC News (Clinton +2) and IDB/TIPP (Clinton +4).
The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.4%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton pushes back against 'unprecedented' new FBI review
Hillary Clinton lashed out Saturday at the FBI's handling of a new email review, leading a chorus of Democratic leaders who declared the bureau's actions just days before the election "unprecedented" and "deeply troubling."
CNN -- Comey notified Congress of email probe despite DOJ concerns
Attorney General Loretta Lynch and Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates disagreed with FBI Director James Comey's decision to notify Congress about his bureau's review of emails potentially related to Hillary Clinton's personal server, law enforcement officials familiar with the discussion said.
Fox News -- FBI revisiting Clinton emails just latest in long history of 'October Surprises'
We’ve seen this all before. Everyone is apoplectic about how crazy the presidential campaign is. How crazy the congressional campaigns are. And then the dramatic FBI email news just days before the election.
Politico -- Democrats declare open season on Jim Comey
Hillary Clinton and her aides and allies forcefully criticized FBI Director James Comey on Saturday, demanding that he release more information about the bureau’s discovery of Clinton-related emails and criticizing him for bad timing.
The Hill -- Justice Dept. warned FBI against letter on Clinton emails
FBI Director James Comey went against the wishes of Attorney General Loretta Lynch when he sent a letter to lawmakers Friday notifying them that the agency was reviewing new emails “pertinent” to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server.
Saturday, October 29, 2016
Countdown To Election Day: New battleground polls from Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa
STATE POLLING
Yes, there are so many polls out today, that we had to break them down into battleground and non-battleground categories.
From the battleground states, we have new polls today from Nevada (tied), Arizona (Trump +1), Georgia (Trump +1), Florida (Clinton +3), New Hampshire (Clinton +3), North Carolina (Clinton +3), Pennsylvania (Clinton +5), New Mexico (Clinton +5), Colorado (Clinton +7), and two from Iowa (tied, Trump +3).
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from ABC News that has Clinton up +4. leading Trump 48% to 44%, with Johnson at 4%, and Stein at 1%.
The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.1%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton tries to quell resurgent email issue late in race
For more than a year, Hillary Clinton has been a reluctant participant in the email controversy that has dogged her campaign, responding defensively to inquiries — and often only when there's a political imperative to do so.
CNN -- The bizarre day that blunted Clinton's good mood
illary Clinton was riding high. Then Anthony Weiner resurfaced. A string of strong swing state polls, an expanding battleground map and the end of the presidential debates had Clinton -- and her aides -- feeling good about the final days of the campaign.
Fox News -- FBI reopens Clinton probe after new emails found in Anthony Weiner case
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton called on the FBI Friday to release all information in its renewed investigation into her use of a private server while secretary of state after discovering new emails – apparently during the probe of former Rep. Anthony Weiner’s sexting – in a stunning turn of events just days before the presidential election.
Politico -- Comey's disclosure shocks former prosecutors
James Comey's surprise announcement that investigators are examining new evidence in the probe of Hillary Clinton's email server put the FBI director back under a harsh spotlight, reigniting criticism of his unusual decision to discuss the high-profile case in front of the media and two congressional committees.
The Hill -- Clinton demands 'full and complete facts' from FBI
Hillary Clinton called on the FBI to release more information about newly uncovered emails connected to the investigation into her private server, addressing the issue for the first time at a press conference.
Yes, there are so many polls out today, that we had to break them down into battleground and non-battleground categories.
From the battleground states, we have new polls today from Nevada (tied), Arizona (Trump +1), Georgia (Trump +1), Florida (Clinton +3), New Hampshire (Clinton +3), North Carolina (Clinton +3), Pennsylvania (Clinton +5), New Mexico (Clinton +5), Colorado (Clinton +7), and two from Iowa (tied, Trump +3).
Breaking down the new polls, the Wild West looks to be living up to its reputation, as Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico all appear to be very close. Add in Utah, which has been polling very close in a three-way race, along with a still-competitive Colorado, and it could be a very close finish out on the frontier.
Down South, to no surprise, Florida and North Carolina will be going down to the wire. What is surprising is that Georgia remains very close. The generally Republican outer suburbs of Atlanta may be the deciding factor for the Peach State.
And what's going on in New Hampshire? Clinton has gone from a +15 poll to a +3 poll in just the past few weeks. Those four electoral votes look to be a tougher fight than Clinton had originally expected. Same thing is going, in reverse, in Iowa, as the Trump camp must be wondering what happened to their once steady lead in the Hawkeye State.
We also have new polls from Idaho (Trump +19), Arkansas (Trump +16), Indiana (Trump +14), Alabama (Trump +12), Missouri (Trump +11), Alaska (Trump +12), Connecticut (Clinton +13), Delaware (Clinton +16), Illinois (Clinton +17), Hawaii (Clinton +18), California (Clinton +23), District of Columbia (Clinton +82), and two from Virginia (Clinton +12, Clinton +7).
Nothing all that unusual here: Trump is leading where Republicans generally lead, Clinton is leading where Democrats generally lead. It is nice, however, to get some new polls from Alaska, Hawaii and the District of Columbia. The results are what we expected, it's just that they don't get polled very often, and we like having fresh data.
Three changes to the map today: Missouri moves from "likely" to "solid" Republican, Florida moves from "leaning" Republican to "tied", and New Hampshire moves from "solid" to "leaning" Democrat. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 304 to 205.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.7%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.3%
Tied
Florida
Leaning Democrat
Arizona: Clinton up by 0.5%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 5.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.8%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 6.5%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
New poll today from ABC News that has Clinton up +4. leading Trump 48% to 44%, with Johnson at 4%, and Stein at 1%.
The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.1%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton tries to quell resurgent email issue late in race
For more than a year, Hillary Clinton has been a reluctant participant in the email controversy that has dogged her campaign, responding defensively to inquiries — and often only when there's a political imperative to do so.
CNN -- The bizarre day that blunted Clinton's good mood
illary Clinton was riding high. Then Anthony Weiner resurfaced. A string of strong swing state polls, an expanding battleground map and the end of the presidential debates had Clinton -- and her aides -- feeling good about the final days of the campaign.
Fox News -- FBI reopens Clinton probe after new emails found in Anthony Weiner case
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton called on the FBI Friday to release all information in its renewed investigation into her use of a private server while secretary of state after discovering new emails – apparently during the probe of former Rep. Anthony Weiner’s sexting – in a stunning turn of events just days before the presidential election.
Politico -- Comey's disclosure shocks former prosecutors
James Comey's surprise announcement that investigators are examining new evidence in the probe of Hillary Clinton's email server put the FBI director back under a harsh spotlight, reigniting criticism of his unusual decision to discuss the high-profile case in front of the media and two congressional committees.
The Hill -- Clinton demands 'full and complete facts' from FBI
Hillary Clinton called on the FBI to release more information about newly uncovered emails connected to the investigation into her private server, addressing the issue for the first time at a press conference.
Friday, October 28, 2016
Countdown To Election Day: New polls from Louisiana, Missouri, Utah, Georgia, Iowa, Arizona, Washington, California, Massachusetts, Ohio, Nevada, Michigan, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Louisiana (Trump +15), Missouri (Trump +5), Utah (Trump +4), Georgia (Trump +1), Iowa (tied), Arizona (Clinton +2), Washington (Clinton +14), California (Clinton +26), Massachusetts (Clinton +32), two from Ohio (Trump +2 and Trump +3). two from Nevada (Clinton +1 and Clinton +2), two from Michigan (Clinton +7 and Clinton +6), two from Virginia (Clinton +12 and Clinton +7), three from Pennsylvania (Clinton +8, Clinton +7, Clinton +7), three from New Hampshire (Clinton +9, Clinton +5, Clinton +8), four from Florida (Trump +3, Trump +6, Clinton +4, tied), and five from North Carolina (Clinton +4, Clinton +2, Clinton +2, Clinton +7, Clinton +3).
Yeah, that's a whole lot of polling. As one of my favorite T-shirts says, "Stand back! I'm about to do math!" And what a lot of math it is...
First of, let's get the two big results out of the way: we finally have polls from Ohio, and some very interesting results from Florida. In Ohio, Trump has retaken the lead, but only by a slim margin. That's very important to his campaign. But what's really going to make the folks in Trump Tower happy today are the results from Florida, where he has overtaken his Democratic rival.
And while the above results are indeed good news for the Trump campaign, there are also some troubling polls to contend with, including Utah and Georgia still being far too competitive for comfort, and Missouri apparently coming into play a bit.
Plus, Clinton is moving Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire even further out of reach, which cuts off the vast majority of his paths to victory, and appears to be maintaining her lead in North Carolina.
Three changes to the map today: Florida moves from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican, Ohio moves from "tied" to "leaning" Republican, and Missouri moves for "solid" to "likely" Republican . Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 304 to 234.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Missouri: Trump up by 6.6%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.7%
Florida: Trump up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Arizona: Clinton up by 0.7%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.8%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.2%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.8%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 5.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Pew Research (Clinton +6), ABC News (Clinton +6), Gravis (Clinton +1), and The Economist (Clinton +5).
The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.9%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton rallies with Mrs. Obama as Trump alleges corruption
Aiming to deliver a knockout blow to Donald Trump's staggering presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton turned to popular first lady Michelle Obama to rally voters in North Carolina.
CNN -- Donald Trump's tough path to the White House
Donald Trump got a morale boost this week -- but it likely won't be enough to propel him to the White House. After weeks of devastating headlines, the Republican nominee seemed to give himself a break.
Fox News -- Clinton more than doubles her money edge over Trump
Hillary Clinton entered the final phase of her presidential bid with a resounding campaign cash advantage over Donald Trump. New fundraising reports show her campaign and joint accounts with Democrats had $153 million in the bank as of last week.
Politico -- Clinton eyes Biden for secretary of state
Joe Biden is at the top of the internal short list Hillary Clinton’s transition team is preparing for her pick to be secretary of state, a source familiar with the planning tells POLITICO.
The Hill -- Clinton fails to contain the damage from email leaks
Hillary Clinton has failed to effectively contain the damage from the release of thousands of campaign chairman John Podesta’s personal emails, giving new ammunition to Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
New polls today from Louisiana (Trump +15), Missouri (Trump +5), Utah (Trump +4), Georgia (Trump +1), Iowa (tied), Arizona (Clinton +2), Washington (Clinton +14), California (Clinton +26), Massachusetts (Clinton +32), two from Ohio (Trump +2 and Trump +3). two from Nevada (Clinton +1 and Clinton +2), two from Michigan (Clinton +7 and Clinton +6), two from Virginia (Clinton +12 and Clinton +7), three from Pennsylvania (Clinton +8, Clinton +7, Clinton +7), three from New Hampshire (Clinton +9, Clinton +5, Clinton +8), four from Florida (Trump +3, Trump +6, Clinton +4, tied), and five from North Carolina (Clinton +4, Clinton +2, Clinton +2, Clinton +7, Clinton +3).
Yeah, that's a whole lot of polling. As one of my favorite T-shirts says, "Stand back! I'm about to do math!" And what a lot of math it is...
First of, let's get the two big results out of the way: we finally have polls from Ohio, and some very interesting results from Florida. In Ohio, Trump has retaken the lead, but only by a slim margin. That's very important to his campaign. But what's really going to make the folks in Trump Tower happy today are the results from Florida, where he has overtaken his Democratic rival.
And while the above results are indeed good news for the Trump campaign, there are also some troubling polls to contend with, including Utah and Georgia still being far too competitive for comfort, and Missouri apparently coming into play a bit.
Plus, Clinton is moving Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire even further out of reach, which cuts off the vast majority of his paths to victory, and appears to be maintaining her lead in North Carolina.
Three changes to the map today: Florida moves from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican, Ohio moves from "tied" to "leaning" Republican, and Missouri moves for "solid" to "likely" Republican . Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 304 to 234.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Missouri: Trump up by 6.6%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.7%
Florida: Trump up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Arizona: Clinton up by 0.7%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.8%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.2%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.8%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 5.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
New polls today from Pew Research (Clinton +6), ABC News (Clinton +6), Gravis (Clinton +1), and The Economist (Clinton +5).
The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.9%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton rallies with Mrs. Obama as Trump alleges corruption
Aiming to deliver a knockout blow to Donald Trump's staggering presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton turned to popular first lady Michelle Obama to rally voters in North Carolina.
CNN -- Donald Trump's tough path to the White House
Donald Trump got a morale boost this week -- but it likely won't be enough to propel him to the White House. After weeks of devastating headlines, the Republican nominee seemed to give himself a break.
Fox News -- Clinton more than doubles her money edge over Trump
Hillary Clinton entered the final phase of her presidential bid with a resounding campaign cash advantage over Donald Trump. New fundraising reports show her campaign and joint accounts with Democrats had $153 million in the bank as of last week.
Politico -- Clinton eyes Biden for secretary of state
Joe Biden is at the top of the internal short list Hillary Clinton’s transition team is preparing for her pick to be secretary of state, a source familiar with the planning tells POLITICO.
The Hill -- Clinton fails to contain the damage from email leaks
Hillary Clinton has failed to effectively contain the damage from the release of thousands of campaign chairman John Podesta’s personal emails, giving new ammunition to Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Countdown To Election Day: New polls from Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Texas, Montana, New Hampshire
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Florida (Trump +2), North Carolina (Clinton +1), Nevada (tied), Texas (Trump +7), Montana (Trump +16), and two from New Hampshire (Clinton +9 and Clinton +4).
Another status quo day. Florida, North Carolina and Nevada all remain very close, New Hampshire appears to be solidifying for Clinton, and some slight sense of historical normalcy is returning to Texas (though it remains dark pink on the map).
What has been interesting is we haven't seen any (legitimate) polling from Ohio in a number of days, and the average of the last ten polls has the state exactly tied. Hopefully, we'll get some new polling info from there within the next day or so.
And, by way of explanation, my comment about "legitimate" polls is related to a recent rash of polls from unknown or previously unheard of organizations that all contain results way outside the statistical norm. This is, unfortunately, not that unheard of, and is an obvious attempt to skew the poll averaging sites to make a race and/or candidate appear to be more competitive.
What is unfortunate is the dubious polls are favoring the same candidate who has been claiming for some time that polling is fraudulent and not to be believed. Perhaps he's correct, just not in the way he's been implying.
And if your'e ever curious about a specific organization, Nate Silver has a handy webpage that ranks all the polling firms by accuracy and political lean. In the most recent case, the "shocking new poll results" came from a company that isn't even on Silver's list. And it's a long list.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 333 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Arizona: Clinton up by 0.5%
Florida: Clinton up by 15%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2.9%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 5.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from the Associated Press (Clinton +14), ABC News (Clinton +9), Fox News (Clinton +3), Reuters (Clinton +4), and USA Today (Clinton +9).
Five polls, all showing Clinton ahead, but ranging from 3 to 14 points in the lead. The bad news: someone is really far off. The good news: national polling doesn't matter other than to give a general snapshot of the overall race.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 8.5%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Police investigate destruction of Trump's Hollywood star
Los Angeles police are investigating a pre-dawn attack that destroyed Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame less than two weeks before the election.
CNN -- New DC routine: Wake up, search WikiLeaks, wince
It's shaping up to be a new part of the morning routine for DC's elite: Grab coffee, skim the news and type your name into WikiLeaks to see what damage the day's hacked emails might hold for you.
Fox News -- Trump touts 'new deal for black America'
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump unveiled what he called a “New Deal for black America” and revealed a handful of new proposals aimed at revitalizing impoverished urban areas on Wednesday in hope to sway minority voters.
Politico -- Cruz: GOP may block Supreme Court nominees indefinitely
In a vintage return to his confrontational style, Sen. Ted Cruz indicated that Republicans could seek to block a Democratic president from filling the vacant Supreme Court seat indefinitely.
The Hill -- Clinton faces new challenges on ObamaCare
Responding to the uproar over ObamaCare premium hikes, Hillary Clinton on Tuesday promised: “We’re going to make changes to fix problems like that.” The question is: What changes could actually get through Congress?
New polls today from Florida (Trump +2), North Carolina (Clinton +1), Nevada (tied), Texas (Trump +7), Montana (Trump +16), and two from New Hampshire (Clinton +9 and Clinton +4).
Another status quo day. Florida, North Carolina and Nevada all remain very close, New Hampshire appears to be solidifying for Clinton, and some slight sense of historical normalcy is returning to Texas (though it remains dark pink on the map).
What has been interesting is we haven't seen any (legitimate) polling from Ohio in a number of days, and the average of the last ten polls has the state exactly tied. Hopefully, we'll get some new polling info from there within the next day or so.
And, by way of explanation, my comment about "legitimate" polls is related to a recent rash of polls from unknown or previously unheard of organizations that all contain results way outside the statistical norm. This is, unfortunately, not that unheard of, and is an obvious attempt to skew the poll averaging sites to make a race and/or candidate appear to be more competitive.
What is unfortunate is the dubious polls are favoring the same candidate who has been claiming for some time that polling is fraudulent and not to be believed. Perhaps he's correct, just not in the way he's been implying.
And if your'e ever curious about a specific organization, Nate Silver has a handy webpage that ranks all the polling firms by accuracy and political lean. In the most recent case, the "shocking new poll results" came from a company that isn't even on Silver's list. And it's a long list.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 333 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Arizona: Clinton up by 0.5%
Florida: Clinton up by 15%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2.9%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 5.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from the Associated Press (Clinton +14), ABC News (Clinton +9), Fox News (Clinton +3), Reuters (Clinton +4), and USA Today (Clinton +9).
Five polls, all showing Clinton ahead, but ranging from 3 to 14 points in the lead. The bad news: someone is really far off. The good news: national polling doesn't matter other than to give a general snapshot of the overall race.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 8.5%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Police investigate destruction of Trump's Hollywood star
Los Angeles police are investigating a pre-dawn attack that destroyed Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame less than two weeks before the election.
CNN -- New DC routine: Wake up, search WikiLeaks, wince
It's shaping up to be a new part of the morning routine for DC's elite: Grab coffee, skim the news and type your name into WikiLeaks to see what damage the day's hacked emails might hold for you.
Fox News -- Trump touts 'new deal for black America'
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump unveiled what he called a “New Deal for black America” and revealed a handful of new proposals aimed at revitalizing impoverished urban areas on Wednesday in hope to sway minority voters.
Politico -- Cruz: GOP may block Supreme Court nominees indefinitely
In a vintage return to his confrontational style, Sen. Ted Cruz indicated that Republicans could seek to block a Democratic president from filling the vacant Supreme Court seat indefinitely.
The Hill -- Clinton faces new challenges on ObamaCare
Responding to the uproar over ObamaCare premium hikes, Hillary Clinton on Tuesday promised: “We’re going to make changes to fix problems like that.” The question is: What changes could actually get through Congress?
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Countdown To Election Day: New polls from Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Minnesota, Indiana, Alabama, Arkansas, South Dakota, Idaho
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Arizona (Trump +1), Florida (Clinton +3), North Carolina (Clinton +7), Minnesota (Clinton +8), Indiana (Trump +11), Alabama (Trump +14), Arkansas (Trump +23), South Dakota (Trump +7), and Idaho (Trump +29).
Less than two weeks to go, and we see a tale of two very different paths to victory. On the Democratic side, between "solid" and "likely" states, Hillary Clinton already has more than the 270 electoral votes she needs to claim the White House. On the Republican side, with Florida and North Carolina slipping away, and Virginia and Pennsylvania likely out of reach, the path looks all but non-existent for Donald Trump.
Adding salt to Trump's electoral map wounds, Arizona is now an out-and-out battleground that no one at the RNC ever thought would be in play. It's getting so gloomy for the Republican side, even South Dakota (!) only has a single digit lead for Trump. By comparison, Romney won the state in 2012 by just under twenty points. To be up only 7% in a state that has gone Democratic just three times since 1900 is bad no matter how you look at it.
But it's not all bad news. Trump and the GOP still have the Deep South and most of the Midwest. Which is most likely were the majority of viewers of the upcoming "Trump News Network" will be coming from.
One change to the map today, Arizona has moved from "tied" to "leaning Democrat". Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 333 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Arizona: Clinton up by 0.5%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.5%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 5.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from ABC News and NBC News.
ABC News has Clinton up +12, leading Trump 50% to 38%, with Johnson at 5%, and Stein at 2%. Meanwhile, NBC News shows the race much closer, with Clinton up +5, leading Trump 46% to 41%, with Johnson at 7%, and Stein at 3%.
To say it's unusual at this point of the campaign season for two of the most prestigious news organizations, who have decades of polling experience behind them, to be seven points apart is a bit of an understatement. As it is, the current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.2%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump touts hotel as Pence heads to Utah in waning days
Donald Trump is taking a break from campaigning Wednesday to formally open his new hotel in Washington, while dispatching his running mate to play political defense in Utah — which hasn't backed a Democrat for president in 52 years.
CNN -- Republicans go on offense over Obamacare
Obamacare's woes are back -- just two weeks before Election Day. The government said Monday that premiums for Obamacare's benchmark plan are set to rise an average of 22% next year.
Fox News -- Trump cuts off fundraising events for Republican Party
Donald Trump's campaign has ended fundraising events meant to support the Republican Party's get-out-the-vote efforts in next month's elections.
Politico -- Trump campaign turns infomercial
Donald Trump has less than two weeks left in his presidential campaign, but his closing argument sounds as much about his business interests as his electoral ones.
The Hill -- Senior House Republicans fighting for their lives
Two weeks ahead of the Nov. 8 elections, a handful of hardened House Republicans find themselves in a rare position: They’re fighting for their political lives.
New polls today from Arizona (Trump +1), Florida (Clinton +3), North Carolina (Clinton +7), Minnesota (Clinton +8), Indiana (Trump +11), Alabama (Trump +14), Arkansas (Trump +23), South Dakota (Trump +7), and Idaho (Trump +29).
Less than two weeks to go, and we see a tale of two very different paths to victory. On the Democratic side, between "solid" and "likely" states, Hillary Clinton already has more than the 270 electoral votes she needs to claim the White House. On the Republican side, with Florida and North Carolina slipping away, and Virginia and Pennsylvania likely out of reach, the path looks all but non-existent for Donald Trump.
Adding salt to Trump's electoral map wounds, Arizona is now an out-and-out battleground that no one at the RNC ever thought would be in play. It's getting so gloomy for the Republican side, even South Dakota (!) only has a single digit lead for Trump. By comparison, Romney won the state in 2012 by just under twenty points. To be up only 7% in a state that has gone Democratic just three times since 1900 is bad no matter how you look at it.
But it's not all bad news. Trump and the GOP still have the Deep South and most of the Midwest. Which is most likely were the majority of viewers of the upcoming "Trump News Network" will be coming from.
One change to the map today, Arizona has moved from "tied" to "leaning Democrat". Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 333 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Arizona: Clinton up by 0.5%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.5%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 5.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from ABC News and NBC News.
ABC News has Clinton up +12, leading Trump 50% to 38%, with Johnson at 5%, and Stein at 2%. Meanwhile, NBC News shows the race much closer, with Clinton up +5, leading Trump 46% to 41%, with Johnson at 7%, and Stein at 3%.
To say it's unusual at this point of the campaign season for two of the most prestigious news organizations, who have decades of polling experience behind them, to be seven points apart is a bit of an understatement. As it is, the current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.2%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump touts hotel as Pence heads to Utah in waning days
Donald Trump is taking a break from campaigning Wednesday to formally open his new hotel in Washington, while dispatching his running mate to play political defense in Utah — which hasn't backed a Democrat for president in 52 years.
CNN -- Republicans go on offense over Obamacare
Obamacare's woes are back -- just two weeks before Election Day. The government said Monday that premiums for Obamacare's benchmark plan are set to rise an average of 22% next year.
Fox News -- Trump cuts off fundraising events for Republican Party
Donald Trump's campaign has ended fundraising events meant to support the Republican Party's get-out-the-vote efforts in next month's elections.
Politico -- Trump campaign turns infomercial
Donald Trump has less than two weeks left in his presidential campaign, but his closing argument sounds as much about his business interests as his electoral ones.
The Hill -- Senior House Republicans fighting for their lives
Two weeks ahead of the Nov. 8 elections, a handful of hardened House Republicans find themselves in a rare position: They’re fighting for their political lives.
Tuesday, October 25, 2016
The Final Two Weeks: New polls from Michigan, Washington, North Carolina, Nevada
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Michigan (Clinton +8), Washington (Clinton +17), two from North Carolina (Clinton +1 and Clinton +3), and two from Nevada (Clinton +7 and Clinton +4).
Two weeks from today, the polls will open across the nation and by the end of the evening (likely sooner), we will know who our next President will be. Whether the losing candidate will accept the results, however, is still very much up in the air.
And judging from the fact that not once since this blog was started (and even earlier, when I was posting my data at Fark Politics) has Trump had a lead in the electoral voting. And from the latest week of polls, it appears from where I sit that the question isn't whether Hillary Clinton will win, but by how much. As in, will it be reasonably close or will it be a landslide...and my math is leaning towards landslide.
As for today's polls, no surprises in Michigan, Washington, or North Carolina. The first two are solidly blue, and the Tar Heel State is going to be razor-thin right up to the bitter end. The (slight) surprise is that Clinton appears to be starting to pull away in Nevada, a state that has accurately predicted the winner every election since 1980.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.5%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from CNN/ORC that has Clinton ahead by 5, leading Trump 49% to 44%, with Johnson at 3%, and Stein at 2%. Head-to-head, Clinton leads Trump 51% to 45%.
There's also a poll from Centre College, which has been doing polling for some time, that has a similar result: Clinton up by 5, leading Trump 45% to 40%, with Johnson at 6%, and Stein at 1%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump, with electoral path narrowing, insists he's 'winning'
Even as his path to the presidency narrows, a defiant Donald Trump is insisting he is "winning" and urging his supporters to defy what he is calling an establishment conspiracy to deny the White House to his populist movement.
CNN -- Election law doesn't care if Trump (or Clinton) ever concede
The prospect of election night drama seems to dwindle with each new round of polling. But Donald Trump, perhaps trying to author a campaign cliffhanger, is determined to provide Americans with at least a measure of "suspense" on November 8.
Fox News -- Early voting suggests tight race in key states
Hillary Clinton’s campaign is touting some “eye-popping” advantages in early voting, in an apparent effort to energize Democratic voters, but preliminary figures suggest the race remains tighter than her aides acknowledge.
Politico -- Trump’s love affair with the polls is over
Donald Trump began and ended his rally here by recognizing a tall man standing in the top row of a packed outdoor amphitheater dressed as Abraham Lincoln, pointing up to the silhouette of “Honest Abe’s” famous stovepipe hat against the afternoon sky.
The Hill -- War over polls intensifies
Want a tough job? Trying being a pollster two weeks before Election Day. Donald Trump is ripping pollsters and the media, arguing the surveys are biased against him because many include too many Democrats in their sampling surveys.
New polls today from Michigan (Clinton +8), Washington (Clinton +17), two from North Carolina (Clinton +1 and Clinton +3), and two from Nevada (Clinton +7 and Clinton +4).
Two weeks from today, the polls will open across the nation and by the end of the evening (likely sooner), we will know who our next President will be. Whether the losing candidate will accept the results, however, is still very much up in the air.
And judging from the fact that not once since this blog was started (and even earlier, when I was posting my data at Fark Politics) has Trump had a lead in the electoral voting. And from the latest week of polls, it appears from where I sit that the question isn't whether Hillary Clinton will win, but by how much. As in, will it be reasonably close or will it be a landslide...and my math is leaning towards landslide.
As for today's polls, no surprises in Michigan, Washington, or North Carolina. The first two are solidly blue, and the Tar Heel State is going to be razor-thin right up to the bitter end. The (slight) surprise is that Clinton appears to be starting to pull away in Nevada, a state that has accurately predicted the winner every election since 1980.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.5%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from CNN/ORC that has Clinton ahead by 5, leading Trump 49% to 44%, with Johnson at 3%, and Stein at 2%. Head-to-head, Clinton leads Trump 51% to 45%.
There's also a poll from Centre College, which has been doing polling for some time, that has a similar result: Clinton up by 5, leading Trump 45% to 40%, with Johnson at 6%, and Stein at 1%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump, with electoral path narrowing, insists he's 'winning'
Even as his path to the presidency narrows, a defiant Donald Trump is insisting he is "winning" and urging his supporters to defy what he is calling an establishment conspiracy to deny the White House to his populist movement.
CNN -- Election law doesn't care if Trump (or Clinton) ever concede
The prospect of election night drama seems to dwindle with each new round of polling. But Donald Trump, perhaps trying to author a campaign cliffhanger, is determined to provide Americans with at least a measure of "suspense" on November 8.
Fox News -- Early voting suggests tight race in key states
Hillary Clinton’s campaign is touting some “eye-popping” advantages in early voting, in an apparent effort to energize Democratic voters, but preliminary figures suggest the race remains tighter than her aides acknowledge.
Politico -- Trump’s love affair with the polls is over
Donald Trump began and ended his rally here by recognizing a tall man standing in the top row of a packed outdoor amphitheater dressed as Abraham Lincoln, pointing up to the silhouette of “Honest Abe’s” famous stovepipe hat against the afternoon sky.
The Hill -- War over polls intensifies
Want a tough job? Trying being a pollster two weeks before Election Day. Donald Trump is ripping pollsters and the media, arguing the surveys are biased against him because many include too many Democrats in their sampling surveys.
Monday, October 24, 2016
14 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Texas, Florida
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Texas (Trump +3) and Florida (Clinton +3).
There are two weeks of campaigning left, and then we go to the polls (at least, those who haven't already early voted). Considering this election season feels like it started back around 2012, it's almost hard to believe we're this close to the finish line.
And as it stands, the GOP has to be quietly looking in the mirror every morning and asking themselves how did they get here. And not it a good way. Waking up two weeks before Election Day to find their hated opponent, Hillary Clinton, leading in must-win Florida and within the margin of error in Texas, of all states, has to be some sort of nightmare.
Then again, if this race has proven one thing, it's that all the "conventional wisdom" of how campaigns are supposed to play out are completely out the door.
In other words, hold on to your hat, it's going to be a wild finish.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.7%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from ABC News that has Clinton ahead of Trump by 12%, leading 50% to 38%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 2%. In a head-to-head match-up, Clinton has a 53% to 41% lead, so they are basically splitting the third-party candidate support.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.2%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- With email dumps, WikiLeaks tests power of full transparency
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange first outlined the hypothesis nearly a decade ago: Can total transparency defeat an entrenched group of insiders?
CNN -- The tumultuous 2016 campaign is in a sudden limbo
The most dramatic and unpredictable presidential election in decades is suddenly slipping into a strange state of suspended animation.
Fox News -- Clinton camp denies looking to Senate races, red states to cap foregone victory
The Clinton campaign on Sunday denied assertions that it thinks the White House race is now a lock and has moved toward trying for a blowout victory over Republican rival Donald Trump while attempting to take control of the Senate.
Politico -- Trump’s window is closing
With two weeks to go, Donald Trump’s path to an Election Night win is almost entirely closed. Hillary Clinton enters the final 15 days of the race safely ahead in states worth more than 270 electoral votes.
The Hill -- Trump's growth projections leave economists in disbelief
Economists are dubious of Donald Trump’s claim that he could more than triple economic growth if elected president. Trump has repeatedly blasted the gross domestic product (GDP) numbers under President Obama as pathetically low, promising he would change the trajectory by building a “tremendous economic machine.”
New polls today from Texas (Trump +3) and Florida (Clinton +3).
There are two weeks of campaigning left, and then we go to the polls (at least, those who haven't already early voted). Considering this election season feels like it started back around 2012, it's almost hard to believe we're this close to the finish line.
And as it stands, the GOP has to be quietly looking in the mirror every morning and asking themselves how did they get here. And not it a good way. Waking up two weeks before Election Day to find their hated opponent, Hillary Clinton, leading in must-win Florida and within the margin of error in Texas, of all states, has to be some sort of nightmare.
Then again, if this race has proven one thing, it's that all the "conventional wisdom" of how campaigns are supposed to play out are completely out the door.
In other words, hold on to your hat, it's going to be a wild finish.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.7%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from ABC News that has Clinton ahead of Trump by 12%, leading 50% to 38%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 2%. In a head-to-head match-up, Clinton has a 53% to 41% lead, so they are basically splitting the third-party candidate support.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.2%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- With email dumps, WikiLeaks tests power of full transparency
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange first outlined the hypothesis nearly a decade ago: Can total transparency defeat an entrenched group of insiders?
CNN -- The tumultuous 2016 campaign is in a sudden limbo
The most dramatic and unpredictable presidential election in decades is suddenly slipping into a strange state of suspended animation.
Fox News -- Clinton camp denies looking to Senate races, red states to cap foregone victory
The Clinton campaign on Sunday denied assertions that it thinks the White House race is now a lock and has moved toward trying for a blowout victory over Republican rival Donald Trump while attempting to take control of the Senate.
Politico -- Trump’s window is closing
With two weeks to go, Donald Trump’s path to an Election Night win is almost entirely closed. Hillary Clinton enters the final 15 days of the race safely ahead in states worth more than 270 electoral votes.
The Hill -- Trump's growth projections leave economists in disbelief
Economists are dubious of Donald Trump’s claim that he could more than triple economic growth if elected president. Trump has repeatedly blasted the gross domestic product (GDP) numbers under President Obama as pathetically low, promising he would change the trajectory by building a “tremendous economic machine.”
Sunday, October 23, 2016
15 Days Till Election Day: New poll from Michigan
STATE POLLING
New poll today from Michigan (Clinton +5).
Yep, that's it, just one state. And we're not really sure what to make of this poll, either. The polling firm, Marketing Resource Group, only rates a C+ from Nate Silver, with an 11% error margin and only a 17% success rate for calling elections. And even if their poll is right on the money, Michigan is still safely in the "Solid Democrat" column.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump's lawsuit threat against accusers overshadows agenda
Donald Trump is laying out an ambitious agenda for his first 100 days as president but pointedly noting that he will find time to sue the numerous women who have accused him of groping and other unwanted sexual behavior.
CNN -- Trump Jr.: father's 2005 hot mic comments are 'a fact of life'
Donald Trump Jr. says conversations like the one his father had in 2005 where he boasted about forcing himself on women and grabbing their genitals are "a fact of life."
Fox News -- Trump opposes AT&T-Time Warner deal
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said Saturday he opposes the $85 billion merger between AT&T and Time Warner, arguing the major media deal would result in “too much concentration of power” and vowing if elected to undo the deal.
Politico -- Log Cabin Republicans board votes against endorsing Trump
The board of the nation’s largest group of LGBT Republicans has voted to not endorse Donald Trump, in a contentious decision that did not reflect the preference of many of its chapters.
The Hill -- Could President Hillary heal a divided nation?
If she wins the White House, Hillary Clinton will face the daunting task of healing the national divisions exposed by a vicious campaign season. Whether Clinton could knit the nation back together is an open question.
New poll today from Michigan (Clinton +5).
Yep, that's it, just one state. And we're not really sure what to make of this poll, either. The polling firm, Marketing Resource Group, only rates a C+ from Nate Silver, with an 11% error margin and only a 17% success rate for calling elections. And even if their poll is right on the money, Michigan is still safely in the "Solid Democrat" column.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump's lawsuit threat against accusers overshadows agenda
Donald Trump is laying out an ambitious agenda for his first 100 days as president but pointedly noting that he will find time to sue the numerous women who have accused him of groping and other unwanted sexual behavior.
CNN -- Trump Jr.: father's 2005 hot mic comments are 'a fact of life'
Donald Trump Jr. says conversations like the one his father had in 2005 where he boasted about forcing himself on women and grabbing their genitals are "a fact of life."
Fox News -- Trump opposes AT&T-Time Warner deal
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said Saturday he opposes the $85 billion merger between AT&T and Time Warner, arguing the major media deal would result in “too much concentration of power” and vowing if elected to undo the deal.
Politico -- Log Cabin Republicans board votes against endorsing Trump
The board of the nation’s largest group of LGBT Republicans has voted to not endorse Donald Trump, in a contentious decision that did not reflect the preference of many of its chapters.
The Hill -- Could President Hillary heal a divided nation?
If she wins the White House, Hillary Clinton will face the daunting task of healing the national divisions exposed by a vicious campaign season. Whether Clinton could knit the nation back together is an open question.
Saturday, October 22, 2016
16 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Maine, Louisiana, Virginia, Florida, Indiana, Utah, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Georgia
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Maine CD1 (Clinton +10) and Maine CD 2 (Clinton +1), Louisiana (Trump +20), Virginia (Clinton +12), Florida (Clinton +4), Indiana (Trump +6), Utah (Trump +3), Missouri (Trump +8), Pennsylvania (Clinton +5), New Hampshire (Clinton +8), and three from Georgia (Trump +4, Trump +2, Trump +4).
Another healthy dose of polling that has a few things stand out.
First, Pennsylvania had for a while looked to be all but sewn up for Team Clinton. Then "the tape" dropped...and ever since then, the race has been tightening up in the Keystone State. Hey, no one ever said politics makes sense. This is a state Trump absolutely has to have if he has any chance at winning this race, so this is good news for him at a time when any good news is extremely welcome.
On the flip side, Team Clinton has be enjoying what's happening in Georgia. Yes, Trump maintains his lead, but it's close enough that Clinton and supportive PACs are dropping an increasing amount of money into the Peach State in the hope to steal one right out of the Deep South.
And for a while it's looked like Trump might snag one of Maine's EV's by taking the more rural 2nd Congressional District. And while he's still leading there, it's a lot closer than it had been, so it's looking less likely as we get closer to Election Day.
One change to the map today: Maine CD2 moves from "likely" to "leaning" Republican. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton campaign ponders 'what if' Trump doesn't concede
Hillary Clinton's campaign is increasingly preparing for the possibility that Donald Trump may never concede the presidential election should she win, a development that could enormously complicate the crucial early weeks of her preparations to take office.
CNN -- Trump to make 'closing argument,' lay out plan for first 100 days
Donald Trump will lay out his plans for the first 100 days of his presidency in a speech Saturday that the Republican nominee's senior campaign aides are billing as his "closing argument" in the presidential race.
Fox News -- Clinton lectured State Dept. staff on cybersecurity in 2010 video
Despite conducting her own government business through a personal “homebrew” server while secretary of state, Hillary Clinton is seen in a newly obtained video lecturing her staff of their “special duty” to recognize the importance of cybersecurity.
Politico -- Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets
Wall Street is set up for a major crash if Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House. New research out on Friday suggests that financial markets strongly prefer a Hillary Clinton presidency and could react with panicked selling should Trump defy the polls and deliver a shocking upset on Nov. 8.
The Hill -- State Department releases new batch of Clinton emails
The State Department on Friday released 112 of the 15,000 Hillary Clinton emails uncovered by the FBI during its investigation into the former secretary of State’s personal email server. Many of the documents — comprising about 240 pages — are “near duplicates” of documents Clinton provided to the State Department in 2014 and have already been made public, according to the agency.
New polls today from Maine CD1 (Clinton +10) and Maine CD 2 (Clinton +1), Louisiana (Trump +20), Virginia (Clinton +12), Florida (Clinton +4), Indiana (Trump +6), Utah (Trump +3), Missouri (Trump +8), Pennsylvania (Clinton +5), New Hampshire (Clinton +8), and three from Georgia (Trump +4, Trump +2, Trump +4).
Another healthy dose of polling that has a few things stand out.
First, Pennsylvania had for a while looked to be all but sewn up for Team Clinton. Then "the tape" dropped...and ever since then, the race has been tightening up in the Keystone State. Hey, no one ever said politics makes sense. This is a state Trump absolutely has to have if he has any chance at winning this race, so this is good news for him at a time when any good news is extremely welcome.
On the flip side, Team Clinton has be enjoying what's happening in Georgia. Yes, Trump maintains his lead, but it's close enough that Clinton and supportive PACs are dropping an increasing amount of money into the Peach State in the hope to steal one right out of the Deep South.
And for a while it's looked like Trump might snag one of Maine's EV's by taking the more rural 2nd Congressional District. And while he's still leading there, it's a lot closer than it had been, so it's looking less likely as we get closer to Election Day.
One change to the map today: Maine CD2 moves from "likely" to "leaning" Republican. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton campaign ponders 'what if' Trump doesn't concede
Hillary Clinton's campaign is increasingly preparing for the possibility that Donald Trump may never concede the presidential election should she win, a development that could enormously complicate the crucial early weeks of her preparations to take office.
CNN -- Trump to make 'closing argument,' lay out plan for first 100 days
Donald Trump will lay out his plans for the first 100 days of his presidency in a speech Saturday that the Republican nominee's senior campaign aides are billing as his "closing argument" in the presidential race.
Fox News -- Clinton lectured State Dept. staff on cybersecurity in 2010 video
Despite conducting her own government business through a personal “homebrew” server while secretary of state, Hillary Clinton is seen in a newly obtained video lecturing her staff of their “special duty” to recognize the importance of cybersecurity.
Politico -- Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets
Wall Street is set up for a major crash if Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House. New research out on Friday suggests that financial markets strongly prefer a Hillary Clinton presidency and could react with panicked selling should Trump defy the polls and deliver a shocking upset on Nov. 8.
The Hill -- State Department releases new batch of Clinton emails
The State Department on Friday released 112 of the 15,000 Hillary Clinton emails uncovered by the FBI during its investigation into the former secretary of State’s personal email server. Many of the documents — comprising about 240 pages — are “near duplicates” of documents Clinton provided to the State Department in 2014 and have already been made public, according to the agency.
Friday, October 21, 2016
17 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Ohio, Oregon, Utah, Michigan
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Ohio (tied), Oregon (Clinton +10), Utah (Trump +1), and Michigan (Clinton +13).
Just a handful of polls today, but each interesting in their own way.
Ohio has long been considered one of the bellwether swing states, as in "so goes Ohio, so goes the White House". In the last 18 elections, the only candidate to win Ohio and not win the White House was Richard Nixon in 1960. And while it doesn't have the electoral clout it once had (it's lost about a third of its electoral strength in the past 50 years), it's still a state that gets a lot of attention from candidates and the media. And at this point, it's a dead heat.
Oregon is indicative of the West Coast, which has been solidly blue for some time and shows no sign of changing this time around. One of the reasons even a generic Republican candidate starts off in a bit of a hole is the block of 74 EV's from Washington, Oregon, and California, all part of the "Great Blue Wall" the Democrats have built up over the past several elections. It's to the point now that they only time an Oregonian ever sees a candidate is during the primaries. On the positive side, their mailboxes aren't overflowing with direct mailers and their local TV isn't overrun with SuperPAC and campaign ads.
Utah is a state a lot of people have been writing a lot about, for reasons that are both unusual and quite fascinating from a purely political standpoint. The strong Mormon presence in the state, somewhere around two-thirds of the voting population, has been a large part of why Utah has voted Republican in 15 of the last 16 elections (the exception being Lyndon Johnson in 1964). Yet, this time around, their deeply held beliefs do not line up with Trump, which has opened to door to independent (and Mormon) candidate Even McMullin. It's a three-way race that could go to any one of the three according to the recent polling trends.
And Michigan represents how Trump's initial "Rust Belt" strategy has all but failed him. His original plan was to campaign heavily in the states that have been hit hard by manufacturing job losses -- Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- where he felt he would have strong support from the Republican base. That strategy appears to have maintained Indiana (which went for Obama in 2008 then flipped to Romney in 2012), and we've already covered Ohio, but it has been largely ineffective in Illinois Michigan, and Pennsylvania, states that Trump absolutely needed to have any chance to win.
One change to the map today: Utah moves from "likely" to "leaning" Republican. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.5%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Likely Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump, Clinton spending furiously as Election Day nears
Defying his notorious stinginess, Donald Trump more than doubled his campaign spending last month compared to August. He burned through roughly $70 million as his standing in polls and among fellow Republicans dropped. His Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, spent even more — almost $83 million.
CNN -- Trump delivers harsh remarks on Clinton at charity dinner
Donald Trump abandoned decades of tradition Thursday night with a tough takedown of Hillary Clinton at an annual charity dinner that prompted booing of the Republican presidential nominee.
Fox News -- Trump defends, clarifies wait-and-see approach on election results
Donald Trump on Thursday defended his reluctance at the final presidential debate to declare he’d accept the results of the Nov. 8 election no matter what, saying he reserves the right to contest a “questionable result” – while clarifying that he would accept a “clear election result.”
Politico -- Trump pledges to accept election results — ‘if I win’
Donald Trump will accept the outcome on Nov. 8 — “if I win,” the Republican presidential nominee declared Thursday, mocking critics who have scolded him for suggesting he may not concede the election to Hillary Clinton if he loses.
The Hill -- Trump booed at Al Smith dinner
Donald Trump's appearance at Thursday night's charity event took a tough turn as the crowd repeatedly booed the GOP nominee for his sharp-edged jokes about his rival Hillary Clinton. While the New York fundraiser for Catholic charities always includes the two candidates getting laughs at their rival’s expense, Trump’s lines stuck closely to his campaign’s antagonistic rhetoric after an initially positive start.
New polls today from Ohio (tied), Oregon (Clinton +10), Utah (Trump +1), and Michigan (Clinton +13).
Just a handful of polls today, but each interesting in their own way.
Ohio has long been considered one of the bellwether swing states, as in "so goes Ohio, so goes the White House". In the last 18 elections, the only candidate to win Ohio and not win the White House was Richard Nixon in 1960. And while it doesn't have the electoral clout it once had (it's lost about a third of its electoral strength in the past 50 years), it's still a state that gets a lot of attention from candidates and the media. And at this point, it's a dead heat.
Oregon is indicative of the West Coast, which has been solidly blue for some time and shows no sign of changing this time around. One of the reasons even a generic Republican candidate starts off in a bit of a hole is the block of 74 EV's from Washington, Oregon, and California, all part of the "Great Blue Wall" the Democrats have built up over the past several elections. It's to the point now that they only time an Oregonian ever sees a candidate is during the primaries. On the positive side, their mailboxes aren't overflowing with direct mailers and their local TV isn't overrun with SuperPAC and campaign ads.
Utah is a state a lot of people have been writing a lot about, for reasons that are both unusual and quite fascinating from a purely political standpoint. The strong Mormon presence in the state, somewhere around two-thirds of the voting population, has been a large part of why Utah has voted Republican in 15 of the last 16 elections (the exception being Lyndon Johnson in 1964). Yet, this time around, their deeply held beliefs do not line up with Trump, which has opened to door to independent (and Mormon) candidate Even McMullin. It's a three-way race that could go to any one of the three according to the recent polling trends.
And Michigan represents how Trump's initial "Rust Belt" strategy has all but failed him. His original plan was to campaign heavily in the states that have been hit hard by manufacturing job losses -- Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- where he felt he would have strong support from the Republican base. That strategy appears to have maintained Indiana (which went for Obama in 2008 then flipped to Romney in 2012), and we've already covered Ohio, but it has been largely ineffective in Illinois Michigan, and Pennsylvania, states that Trump absolutely needed to have any chance to win.
One change to the map today: Utah moves from "likely" to "leaning" Republican. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.5%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Likely Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump, Clinton spending furiously as Election Day nears
Defying his notorious stinginess, Donald Trump more than doubled his campaign spending last month compared to August. He burned through roughly $70 million as his standing in polls and among fellow Republicans dropped. His Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, spent even more — almost $83 million.
CNN -- Trump delivers harsh remarks on Clinton at charity dinner
Donald Trump abandoned decades of tradition Thursday night with a tough takedown of Hillary Clinton at an annual charity dinner that prompted booing of the Republican presidential nominee.
Fox News -- Trump defends, clarifies wait-and-see approach on election results
Donald Trump on Thursday defended his reluctance at the final presidential debate to declare he’d accept the results of the Nov. 8 election no matter what, saying he reserves the right to contest a “questionable result” – while clarifying that he would accept a “clear election result.”
Politico -- Trump pledges to accept election results — ‘if I win’
Donald Trump will accept the outcome on Nov. 8 — “if I win,” the Republican presidential nominee declared Thursday, mocking critics who have scolded him for suggesting he may not concede the election to Hillary Clinton if he loses.
The Hill -- Trump booed at Al Smith dinner
Donald Trump's appearance at Thursday night's charity event took a tough turn as the crowd repeatedly booed the GOP nominee for his sharp-edged jokes about his rival Hillary Clinton. While the New York fundraiser for Catholic charities always includes the two candidates getting laughs at their rival’s expense, Trump’s lines stuck closely to his campaign’s antagonistic rhetoric after an initially positive start.
Thursday, October 20, 2016
18 Days Till Election Day: 29 new state polls
STATE POLLING
New polls from Kansas (Trump +11), Missouri (Trump +8), Iowa (Trump +5), Kentucky (Trump +4), Nevada (Trump +4), Ohio (Trump +3), Florida (Trump +2), Texas (Trump +2), Colorado (Clinton +7), Michigan (Clinton +8), New Mexico (Clinton +8), Virginia (Clinton +11), New York (Clinton + 24), Vermont (Clinton +28), two from Georgia (Trump +3 and Clinton +4), two from Wisconsin (Clinton +7 and Clinton +5), two from Pennsylvania (Clinton +4 and Clinton +6), three from Arizona (Clinton +5. Trump +3, and Clinton +2), three from North Carolina (Clinton +2, Clinton +6, and Clinton +2), three from New Hampshire (Clinton +15, Clinton +11, and Clinton +8), and then there's Utah (McMullin +4),
Yes, that's a lot of new polls. Three doubles, three triples, and a new player in Utah (mathematically speaking, that is). And lots of interesting results to digest.
First of all, Evan McMullin is now leading a poll in Utah for the first time this year. While statistically Trump still has a lead in the state, the trending numbers show a very good chance that McMullin could win the state and claim Utah's six electoral votes. As has been noted here before, this would be first time an independent candidate won a state since George Wallace in 1968. It would also be devastating to the Trump campaign, which needs every electoral vote that can scrounge up.
And remember yesterday's alarm bells over Texas? Well, they just go louder, as Trump continues to fall in the Lone State State. He's also seeing his support drop in other traditionally red states such as Missouri and Kentucky, which is real cause for concern. Digging deep into the polling reports, we're seeing a growing number of Republicans who are planning to not vote this time around. They don't like Clinton at all, but they just can't justify voting for Trump in spite of the (R) next to his name on the ballot. This is the worst-case scenario for the RNC, who has to worry about losing control of the Senate and, while still unlikely, a slowly growing fear of losing the House as well.
And yet, at the same time, Trump is turning things around in two of the biggest battleground states, Ohio and Florida. These are states he absolutely has to win if he is to have any chance of victory, or at least of not being the recipient of a soul-crushing landslide defeat. This also means the direct mail and television advertising people in both states will be very busy the next couple of weeks.
And while the Clinton folks likely aren't all that happy with Ohio and Florida (and a bit of concern over Pennsylvania slipping backwards), they have to be pleased with their progress in Arizona and Georgia, two states that almost no one thought would be in play at the beginning of the year. New Hampshire also appears to have reaffirmed their blue state status after a summer of concern in Democratic circles. And one would suspect the Clinton strategists are highly amused by Utah, as well.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Quinnipiac (Clinton +7), Bloomberg (Clinton +9), Economist (Clinton +4), and Reuters (Clinton +4).
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.8%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
As we all know, the third and final debate was held last night in Las Vegas and things seemed to have been going reasonably well for Donald Trump...right up until the one moment that overshadowed everything else that happened on the stage.
Associated Press -- Trump refuses to say if he'll accept election results
Threatening to upend a fundamental pillar of American democracy, Donald Trump refused to say in debate that he will accept the results of next month's election if he loses to Hillary Clinton. The Democratic nominee declared Trump's resistance "horrifying."
CNN -- Trump refuses to say whether he'll accept election results
Donald Trump on Wednesday refused to say he would accept the result of the presidential election if he loses to Hillary Clinton, raising the possibility of an extraordinary departure from principles that have underpinned American democracy for more than two centuries.
Fox News -- Trump won’t commit to accepting election results
Donald Trump would not commit Wednesday night to accepting the results of the presidential election if he loses on Nov. 8, in a striking moment during his final debate with Hillary Clinton that underscored the deepening tensions in the race – as the bitter rivals defined the choice for voters on an array of issues not three weeks from Election Day.
Politico -- Trump refuses to say he’ll accept losing
Donald Trump delivered another unprecedented historical moment during the final presidential debate Wednesday night when the Republican nominee, who appears on his way to a landslide loss, refused to say that he would accept the election’s outcome.
The Hill -- Trump sparks furor at final debate
Donald Trump's refusal to say that he will accept the presidential election’s outcome overshadowed all else during his third debate with Hillary Clinton, in Las Vegas on Wednesday evening. Virtually no one in the political world argued that the GOP nominee would benefit from the move.
New polls from Kansas (Trump +11), Missouri (Trump +8), Iowa (Trump +5), Kentucky (Trump +4), Nevada (Trump +4), Ohio (Trump +3), Florida (Trump +2), Texas (Trump +2), Colorado (Clinton +7), Michigan (Clinton +8), New Mexico (Clinton +8), Virginia (Clinton +11), New York (Clinton + 24), Vermont (Clinton +28), two from Georgia (Trump +3 and Clinton +4), two from Wisconsin (Clinton +7 and Clinton +5), two from Pennsylvania (Clinton +4 and Clinton +6), three from Arizona (Clinton +5. Trump +3, and Clinton +2), three from North Carolina (Clinton +2, Clinton +6, and Clinton +2), three from New Hampshire (Clinton +15, Clinton +11, and Clinton +8), and then there's Utah (McMullin +4),
Yes, that's a lot of new polls. Three doubles, three triples, and a new player in Utah (mathematically speaking, that is). And lots of interesting results to digest.
First of all, Evan McMullin is now leading a poll in Utah for the first time this year. While statistically Trump still has a lead in the state, the trending numbers show a very good chance that McMullin could win the state and claim Utah's six electoral votes. As has been noted here before, this would be first time an independent candidate won a state since George Wallace in 1968. It would also be devastating to the Trump campaign, which needs every electoral vote that can scrounge up.
And remember yesterday's alarm bells over Texas? Well, they just go louder, as Trump continues to fall in the Lone State State. He's also seeing his support drop in other traditionally red states such as Missouri and Kentucky, which is real cause for concern. Digging deep into the polling reports, we're seeing a growing number of Republicans who are planning to not vote this time around. They don't like Clinton at all, but they just can't justify voting for Trump in spite of the (R) next to his name on the ballot. This is the worst-case scenario for the RNC, who has to worry about losing control of the Senate and, while still unlikely, a slowly growing fear of losing the House as well.
And yet, at the same time, Trump is turning things around in two of the biggest battleground states, Ohio and Florida. These are states he absolutely has to win if he is to have any chance of victory, or at least of not being the recipient of a soul-crushing landslide defeat. This also means the direct mail and television advertising people in both states will be very busy the next couple of weeks.
And while the Clinton folks likely aren't all that happy with Ohio and Florida (and a bit of concern over Pennsylvania slipping backwards), they have to be pleased with their progress in Arizona and Georgia, two states that almost no one thought would be in play at the beginning of the year. New Hampshire also appears to have reaffirmed their blue state status after a summer of concern in Democratic circles. And one would suspect the Clinton strategists are highly amused by Utah, as well.
Several changes to the map today. On the Republican side, Utah moves from "solid" to "likely"and Georgia moves from "likely" to "leaning". On the Democratic side, Pennsylvania moves from "solid" to "likely" while New Hampshire moves from "leaning" to "solid". And in a rarity, we have two states who are now exactly tied: Arizona and Ohio.
With all the changes, Clinton now has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
Utah: Trump up by 4.9%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Likely Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Quinnipiac (Clinton +7), Bloomberg (Clinton +9), Economist (Clinton +4), and Reuters (Clinton +4).
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.8%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
As we all know, the third and final debate was held last night in Las Vegas and things seemed to have been going reasonably well for Donald Trump...right up until the one moment that overshadowed everything else that happened on the stage.
Associated Press -- Trump refuses to say if he'll accept election results
Threatening to upend a fundamental pillar of American democracy, Donald Trump refused to say in debate that he will accept the results of next month's election if he loses to Hillary Clinton. The Democratic nominee declared Trump's resistance "horrifying."
CNN -- Trump refuses to say whether he'll accept election results
Donald Trump on Wednesday refused to say he would accept the result of the presidential election if he loses to Hillary Clinton, raising the possibility of an extraordinary departure from principles that have underpinned American democracy for more than two centuries.
Fox News -- Trump won’t commit to accepting election results
Donald Trump would not commit Wednesday night to accepting the results of the presidential election if he loses on Nov. 8, in a striking moment during his final debate with Hillary Clinton that underscored the deepening tensions in the race – as the bitter rivals defined the choice for voters on an array of issues not three weeks from Election Day.
Politico -- Trump refuses to say he’ll accept losing
Donald Trump delivered another unprecedented historical moment during the final presidential debate Wednesday night when the Republican nominee, who appears on his way to a landslide loss, refused to say that he would accept the election’s outcome.
The Hill -- Trump sparks furor at final debate
Donald Trump's refusal to say that he will accept the presidential election’s outcome overshadowed all else during his third debate with Hillary Clinton, in Las Vegas on Wednesday evening. Virtually no one in the political world argued that the GOP nominee would benefit from the move.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
19 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Texas, Nevada, North Carolina, Colorado, Wisconsin, New Jersey, Oregon, Massachusetts
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Texas (Trump +3), Nevada (Clinton +7), North Carolina (Clinton +2), Colorado (Clinton +5), Wisconsin (Clinton +8), New Jersey (Clinton +11), Oregon (Clinton +7), and Massachusetts (Clinton +26).
The emergency sirens and bright flashing red lights spinning at the RNC offices this morning can only mean one thing: the GOP is now legitimately in danger of losing Texas.
Yes, you read that right, Texas.
Trump's numbers in the Lone State State have been dropping steadily over the past month, and today's poll is the lowest ever. Right now, the state is still dark pink on our map, but there has to be a lot of worry in GOP and RNC circles about this trend.
As for the rest of the polls, lots of good news for Team Clinton, especially the strong numbers in Nevada, Colorado, and Wisconsin.
If this were any other campaign, I'd already be calling the race for her and asking her staff what the curtain measurements are in the Oval Office. However, this has been anything but a normal campaign, and there's still tonight's final debate. But it certainly does not look good for Team Trump, and hasn't for several weeks now.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
Texas: Trump up by 5.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 5.2%
Leaning Republican
Iowa: Trump up by 3.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.3%
Leaning Democrat
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.4%
Florida: Clinton up by 3.1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 3.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.3%
Likely Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.3%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Bloomberg (Clinton +9), Fox News (Clinton +6), and NBC News (Clinton +6).
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.9%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton, Trump set for last debate as ugly race nears finish
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump's ugly and acrimonious battle for the White House is barreling toward the end, with the candidates taking the debate stage Wednesday night for one final primetime showdown.
CNN -- What to watch for in the last Clinton-Trump face-off
For Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, it's time to begin the closing arguments. Both nominees enter Wednesday's presidential debate -- the final showdown of the election season -- with historically high unfavorability ratings, and need to convince undecided voters why the country would be worse off with their opponent in the White House.
Fox News -- Trump tensions with party causing headaches down ballot
Ardent Donald Trump supporters are expected to turn out Election Day in large numbers, but their support for GOP congressional candidates -- particularly those distancing themselves from the party's presidential nominee -- appears increasingly uncertain.
Politico -- RNC members agree with Trump: It's rigged
Donald Trump is spending the final weeks of his presidential bid declaring he's the victim of an unprecedented vote-rigging conspiracy meant to elect Hillary Clinton. Many top Republican Party officials agree.
The Hill -- Trump seeks game-changer in last debate
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are set to face a huge national audience together for the last time before Election Day. The stakes could hardly be higher Wednesday in Las Vegas, where the two major-party presidential nominees will meet for their third and final debate.
New polls today from Texas (Trump +3), Nevada (Clinton +7), North Carolina (Clinton +2), Colorado (Clinton +5), Wisconsin (Clinton +8), New Jersey (Clinton +11), Oregon (Clinton +7), and Massachusetts (Clinton +26).
The emergency sirens and bright flashing red lights spinning at the RNC offices this morning can only mean one thing: the GOP is now legitimately in danger of losing Texas.
Yes, you read that right, Texas.
Trump's numbers in the Lone State State have been dropping steadily over the past month, and today's poll is the lowest ever. Right now, the state is still dark pink on our map, but there has to be a lot of worry in GOP and RNC circles about this trend.
As for the rest of the polls, lots of good news for Team Clinton, especially the strong numbers in Nevada, Colorado, and Wisconsin.
If this were any other campaign, I'd already be calling the race for her and asking her staff what the curtain measurements are in the Oval Office. However, this has been anything but a normal campaign, and there's still tonight's final debate. But it certainly does not look good for Team Trump, and hasn't for several weeks now.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
Texas: Trump up by 5.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 5.2%
Leaning Republican
Iowa: Trump up by 3.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.3%
Leaning Democrat
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.4%
Florida: Clinton up by 3.1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 3.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.3%
Likely Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.3%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Bloomberg (Clinton +9), Fox News (Clinton +6), and NBC News (Clinton +6).
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.9%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton, Trump set for last debate as ugly race nears finish
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump's ugly and acrimonious battle for the White House is barreling toward the end, with the candidates taking the debate stage Wednesday night for one final primetime showdown.
CNN -- What to watch for in the last Clinton-Trump face-off
For Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, it's time to begin the closing arguments. Both nominees enter Wednesday's presidential debate -- the final showdown of the election season -- with historically high unfavorability ratings, and need to convince undecided voters why the country would be worse off with their opponent in the White House.
Fox News -- Trump tensions with party causing headaches down ballot
Ardent Donald Trump supporters are expected to turn out Election Day in large numbers, but their support for GOP congressional candidates -- particularly those distancing themselves from the party's presidential nominee -- appears increasingly uncertain.
Politico -- RNC members agree with Trump: It's rigged
Donald Trump is spending the final weeks of his presidential bid declaring he's the victim of an unprecedented vote-rigging conspiracy meant to elect Hillary Clinton. Many top Republican Party officials agree.
The Hill -- Trump seeks game-changer in last debate
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are set to face a huge national audience together for the last time before Election Day. The stakes could hardly be higher Wednesday in Las Vegas, where the two major-party presidential nominees will meet for their third and final debate.
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
20 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Louisiana, Utah, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania
STATE POLLING
New polls today from Louisiana (Trump +7), Utah (Trump +1), Florida (Clinton +4), North Carolina (Clinton +1), Nevada (Clinton +2), Colorado (Clinton +8), Pennsylvania (Clinton +6), and two from Ohio (tied, Trump +4).
Finally, some good news for Team Trump, as they have turned things around in Ohio, which had been perilously close to slipping away from them. Though it's unclear how the recent dustup between the campaign and the state party in Ohio will affect Trump's ground game there. Louisiana is still solidly red, though a bit closer than anyone likely expected at the start of the summer.
For Team Clinton, aside from the abovementioned slip in Ohio, things are on par: holding slim but steady leads in North Carolina, Nevada and Florida, and larger leads in Colorado and Pennsylvania.
And Utah is...well, a complete wild card, with Trump polling 30%, Clinton at 29%, and Evan McMullin at 29%. Could we actually see one of the most reliable Republican states (having voted for the GOP candidate in 16 of the last 17 elections) actually turn away from the GOP? It's entirely possible as native son McMullin could become the first independent candidate since George Wallace to win a state. And, considering the wild swings in recent polling numbers, this one is far from clear -- it could be a nail-biter or a complete blow-out.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.9%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 5.2%
Leaning Republican
Iowa: Trump up by 3.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.3%
Leaning Democrat
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.7%
Florida: Clinton up by 3.1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 3.3%
Likely Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.4%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.3%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from NBC News (Clinton +6), CBS News (Clinton +9), GWU (Clinton +8), and Monmouth (Clinton +12). Apparently, everyone agrees that Clinton is moving further ahead of Trump, it's just that none of them really agree on how far ahead.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 8.3%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump wrongly insists voter fraud is 'very, very common'
Donald Trump is insisting voter fraud does, indeed, pose a significant threat to the integrity of the U.S. electoral system, claiming the election could be rigged "at the polling booths" despite a lack of evidence and experts' insistence to the contrary.
CNN -- Why Trump's talk of a rigged vote is so dangerous
Donald Trump is playing with fire. The Republican presidential nominee's claim that the election is being rigged against him represents the most outlandish moment yet in a campaign devoted to dismantling political norms.
Fox News -- Media rigging election? Press hits back hard at Trump's rhetoric
Donald Trump is now openly accusing the media of rigging the election, while much of the media accuse him of trafficking in crackpot conspiracy theories. There’s no pretense any more, no fig leaf of honest but aggressive engagement. And that is driving us toward a bizarre finish in the strangest election of modern times.
Politico -- Trump builds on voter fraud claims rated false by fact-checker
Taking fire from all sides for his claim that American democracy is “rigged,” Donald Trump cited academic studies to justify his claims that the country is beset by widespread voter fraud Monday night in Wisconsin.
The Hill -- Trump looks for lifeline in final presidential debate
It’s now or never for Donald Trump. The Republican nominee must find some way to get traction in what could be an explosive presidential debate on Wednesday.
New polls today from Louisiana (Trump +7), Utah (Trump +1), Florida (Clinton +4), North Carolina (Clinton +1), Nevada (Clinton +2), Colorado (Clinton +8), Pennsylvania (Clinton +6), and two from Ohio (tied, Trump +4).
Finally, some good news for Team Trump, as they have turned things around in Ohio, which had been perilously close to slipping away from them. Though it's unclear how the recent dustup between the campaign and the state party in Ohio will affect Trump's ground game there. Louisiana is still solidly red, though a bit closer than anyone likely expected at the start of the summer.
For Team Clinton, aside from the abovementioned slip in Ohio, things are on par: holding slim but steady leads in North Carolina, Nevada and Florida, and larger leads in Colorado and Pennsylvania.
And Utah is...well, a complete wild card, with Trump polling 30%, Clinton at 29%, and Evan McMullin at 29%. Could we actually see one of the most reliable Republican states (having voted for the GOP candidate in 16 of the last 17 elections) actually turn away from the GOP? It's entirely possible as native son McMullin could become the first independent candidate since George Wallace to win a state. And, considering the wild swings in recent polling numbers, this one is far from clear -- it could be a nail-biter or a complete blow-out.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.9%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 5.2%
Leaning Republican
Iowa: Trump up by 3.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.3%
Leaning Democrat
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.7%
Florida: Clinton up by 3.1%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 3.3%
Likely Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.4%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.3%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from NBC News (Clinton +6), CBS News (Clinton +9), GWU (Clinton +8), and Monmouth (Clinton +12). Apparently, everyone agrees that Clinton is moving further ahead of Trump, it's just that none of them really agree on how far ahead.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 8.3%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump wrongly insists voter fraud is 'very, very common'
Donald Trump is insisting voter fraud does, indeed, pose a significant threat to the integrity of the U.S. electoral system, claiming the election could be rigged "at the polling booths" despite a lack of evidence and experts' insistence to the contrary.
CNN -- Why Trump's talk of a rigged vote is so dangerous
Donald Trump is playing with fire. The Republican presidential nominee's claim that the election is being rigged against him represents the most outlandish moment yet in a campaign devoted to dismantling political norms.
Fox News -- Media rigging election? Press hits back hard at Trump's rhetoric
Donald Trump is now openly accusing the media of rigging the election, while much of the media accuse him of trafficking in crackpot conspiracy theories. There’s no pretense any more, no fig leaf of honest but aggressive engagement. And that is driving us toward a bizarre finish in the strangest election of modern times.
Politico -- Trump builds on voter fraud claims rated false by fact-checker
Taking fire from all sides for his claim that American democracy is “rigged,” Donald Trump cited academic studies to justify his claims that the country is beset by widespread voter fraud Monday night in Wisconsin.
The Hill -- Trump looks for lifeline in final presidential debate
It’s now or never for Donald Trump. The Republican nominee must find some way to get traction in what could be an explosive presidential debate on Wednesday.
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