STATE POLLING
New polls today from Florida (Trump +1), Ohio (Clinton +1), North Carolina (Clinton +2), Texas (Trump +7), and New Mexico (Clinton +13).
A mixed bag of polling today. Trump has cut into Clinton's lead in Florida and is remaining very competitive in North Carolina, while Clinton has cut into Trump's lead in Ohio and is beginning to solidify New Mexico.
At this point in the campaign, it's become clear where the true battleground states are this year: Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina. These six are all well within the margin of error and will likely remain competitive right up until Election Day.
The difference this year is that none of them may matter (as we mentioned yesterday), for Clinton could conceivably lose all six of them and still collect 272 electoral votes, two more than needed to win the White House.
For Trump to pull this out, he'll need to do three things:
1. Win the next two debates, especially the one this Sunday,Granted, that's a tall order, and in a normal campaign season, someone as far behind as he is at this point would be all but written off. However, as has been noted many times this past year, this is anything but a normal campaign season. Mathematically speaking, it's not very likely at this point that Trump can win, but he's confounded experts (and math) many times in the past, so nothing is beyond conjecture.
2. Turn around at least one of the eight "likely Democrat" states, and
3. Put every resource he can into getting his supporters to the polls.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 216. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Georgia: Trump up by 5%
Leaning Republican
Arizona: Trump up by 3.3%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.9%
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.8%
Florida: Clinton up by 1.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2%
Likely Democrat
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.8%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.3%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
Virginia: Clinton up by 6%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Fairleigh Dickinson (Clinton +9) and Reuters (Clinton +6).
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.1%, trending upwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Allegations jobs smoothed with cash payments at Trump Tower
Six years after George Gjieli left federal prison, where he'd been sent for trying to break out a triple murderer, Donald Trump gave him a job running Trump Tower, where the billionaire businessman lived and worked.
CNN -- Reid schools Trump in 'Nevada' pronunciation
Donald Trump's attempt to show Nevadans he knows the correct pronunciation of their state's name -- a touchy local issue -- backfired on Wednesday, prompting a sharp rebuke from Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nevada.
Fox News -- Republicans blast FBI for 'astonishing' agreement to destroy Clinton aides' laptops
op-ranking Republicans on Wednesday escalated their inquiry into a controversial FBI agreement to destroy the laptops of two Hillary Clinton aides questioned in the email scandal investigation, pressing Attorney General Loretta Lynch for answers and suggesting the deal obstructed congressional investigators.
Politico -- Trump: insulting remarks towards women were for ‘entertainment’
Donald Trump said Wednesday that derogatory statements towards women that he has made were all for the sake of “entertainment” and did not reflect his true feelings. "A lot of that was done for the purpose of entertainment, there's nobody that has more respect for women than I do," the real estate mogul told Las Vegas’ KSNV-TV.
The Hill -- Trump facing must-win debate
Donald Trump needs a win at the second presidential debate on Sunday if he is to build on the momentum that his running mate, Mike Pence, has created for him. Pence, the governor of Indiana, is widely seen as having bested his Democratic counterpart, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, at the sole vice presidential debate on Tuesday evening.
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