STATE POLLING
New polls today from Georgia (Trump +6), Pennsylvania (Clinton +9), Virginia (Clinton +3), Utah (Trump +6), Michigan (Clinton +12), three from Ohio (Clinton +9, Clinton +2, and Trump +1), and three from North Carolina (Clinton +4, Clinton +4, and Clinton +2).
It's become obvious pollsters are focusing on the core battleground states right now, with both Ohio and North Carolina getting a triple-sample today. And while North Carolina seems fairly straightforward and in line with recent trends (Clinton moving slightly ahead), the Ohio polls are a bit more confusing.
All three of the Ohio polls were conducted by reliable groups -- Baldwin College, Emerson College, and Marist College -- and yet the range is 10% across the three polls. Which proves our point about never trusting a single poll. Luckily, there's this neat thing called "math" that helps up out. Which is good, since the office Quija board is currently missing the coaster thingie you put your fingers on.
A couple other notes from today: Trump's "Rust Belt" strategy is all but finished, as both Pennsylvania and Michigan are now seemingly out of reach, and in a bit of irony, on the day Trump has closed down his Virginia operations he gets a poll that shows Clinton's lead dropping by well over half. And, again, a poll from a reliable group (Emerson College).
At this stage of the campaign, we're not really sure what Trump's strategy is. He is not going to dent the Democrat's "Blue Wall", it appears he has lost out on most of the East Coast, and the Southern Strategy doesn't really work without Florida and North Carolina. In fact, by pulling out of Virginia, his path to victory becomes even narrower, to the point where there really isn't any viable path remaining barring an "October Miracle".
However, it may also be that internally the members of the campaign -- and Trump himself -- realize they really don't have a chance of winning the White House anymore and instead are setting up a ground game to reshape the GOP post-election. Seen in that light, Trump's rightward turn to the base in the last debate and his attacks on Republican leadership this week make a lot more sense. One thing is for certain: Trump is not going to go away after November 8th, and very well could be the thorn in both President Clinton's and the RNC's side for years to come.
Just food for thought.
And in a follow-up to yesterday's note about the Marquette University poll in Wisconsin, they released their Sat/Sun numbers only (the poll had been conducted from Thursday through Sunday), which gives Clinton a +19 lead in the Badger State. We're not adding that result into our data (it was an extract, not a complete poll), but the difference between the published lead of +7 and the post-tape fallout lead of +19 is very damning to the Trump campaign.
Two changes to the map today: Pennsylvania moves from "likely" to "solid" Democrat while Virginia goes in the opposite direction, moving from "solid" to "likely" Democrat. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Utah: Trump up by 6.4%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 5.2%
Leaning Republican
Iowa: Trump up by 3.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.4%
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.8%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.5%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.8%
Likely Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 4.2%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.1%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.3%
Virginia: Clinton up by 6.3%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from Fox News that has Clinton up +7, leading Trump 45% to 38%, with Johnson at 7%, and Stein at 3%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.4%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump says he doesn't know, never met some of his accusers
Donald Trump contends he doesn't know and never even met some of the women accusing him of sexual assault. Rejecting his claims of being the victim of false stories, Hillary Clinton and ally Michelle Obama say Americans are learning more about Trump's unacceptable behavior every day.
CNN -- Donald Trump is running out of ways to win
Donald Trump cast himself in almost messianic terms Thursday in Florida, describing the presidential race as "a struggle for the survival of our nation" and vowing to win the White House despite all the "slings and arrows" being hurled in his direction.
Fox News -- Trump launches blistering attack on media, accusers after sexual assault claims
Donald Trump launched a blistering counterattack Thursday in response to multiple allegations of sexual assault, calling them “entirely fabricated,” accusing the media outlets that reported them of backing Hillary Clinton and slamming the four accusers as “horrible, horrible liars.”
Politico -- GOP insiders: Trump's chances fading
Republican insiders are rapidly losing confidence in Donald Trump’s ability to win their states. After a nightmarish, seven-day stretch that began with the release of a tape of the now-GOP presidential nominee making sexually aggressive remarks, just 27 percent of GOP swing-state insiders say Trump would win their states if the election were held today.
The Hill -- Trump's 'scorched earth' becomes new worry for Clintonworld
The “scorched earth” playbook employed by Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is stirring alarm among allies of Hillary Clinton, with some fearing the negativity will depress turnout on Election Day. Some Clinton supporters say they they’re concerned that voters are nearly fed up with the constant accusations and name-calling that has defined the campaign.
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