New polls from Kansas (Trump +11), Missouri (Trump +8), Iowa (Trump +5), Kentucky (Trump +4), Nevada (Trump +4), Ohio (Trump +3), Florida (Trump +2), Texas (Trump +2), Colorado (Clinton +7), Michigan (Clinton +8), New Mexico (Clinton +8), Virginia (Clinton +11), New York (Clinton + 24), Vermont (Clinton +28), two from Georgia (Trump +3 and Clinton +4), two from Wisconsin (Clinton +7 and Clinton +5), two from Pennsylvania (Clinton +4 and Clinton +6), three from Arizona (Clinton +5. Trump +3, and Clinton +2), three from North Carolina (Clinton +2, Clinton +6, and Clinton +2), three from New Hampshire (Clinton +15, Clinton +11, and Clinton +8), and then there's Utah (McMullin +4),
Yes, that's a lot of new polls. Three doubles, three triples, and a new player in Utah (mathematically speaking, that is). And lots of interesting results to digest.
First of all, Evan McMullin is now leading a poll in Utah for the first time this year. While statistically Trump still has a lead in the state, the trending numbers show a very good chance that McMullin could win the state and claim Utah's six electoral votes. As has been noted here before, this would be first time an independent candidate won a state since George Wallace in 1968. It would also be devastating to the Trump campaign, which needs every electoral vote that can scrounge up.
And remember yesterday's alarm bells over Texas? Well, they just go louder, as Trump continues to fall in the Lone State State. He's also seeing his support drop in other traditionally red states such as Missouri and Kentucky, which is real cause for concern. Digging deep into the polling reports, we're seeing a growing number of Republicans who are planning to not vote this time around. They don't like Clinton at all, but they just can't justify voting for Trump in spite of the (R) next to his name on the ballot. This is the worst-case scenario for the RNC, who has to worry about losing control of the Senate and, while still unlikely, a slowly growing fear of losing the House as well.
And yet, at the same time, Trump is turning things around in two of the biggest battleground states, Ohio and Florida. These are states he absolutely has to win if he is to have any chance of victory, or at least of not being the recipient of a soul-crushing landslide defeat. This also means the direct mail and television advertising people in both states will be very busy the next couple of weeks.
And while the Clinton folks likely aren't all that happy with Ohio and Florida (and a bit of concern over Pennsylvania slipping backwards), they have to be pleased with their progress in Arizona and Georgia, two states that almost no one thought would be in play at the beginning of the year. New Hampshire also appears to have reaffirmed their blue state status after a summer of concern in Democratic circles. And one would suspect the Clinton strategists are highly amused by Utah, as well.
Several changes to the map today. On the Republican side, Utah moves from "solid" to "likely"and Georgia moves from "likely" to "leaning". On the Democratic side, Pennsylvania moves from "solid" to "likely" while New Hampshire moves from "leaning" to "solid". And in a rarity, we have two states who are now exactly tied: Arizona and Ohio.
With all the changes, Clinton now has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
Utah: Trump up by 4.9%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Likely Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Quinnipiac (Clinton +7), Bloomberg (Clinton +9), Economist (Clinton +4), and Reuters (Clinton +4).
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.8%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
As we all know, the third and final debate was held last night in Las Vegas and things seemed to have been going reasonably well for Donald Trump...right up until the one moment that overshadowed everything else that happened on the stage.
Associated Press -- Trump refuses to say if he'll accept election results
Threatening to upend a fundamental pillar of American democracy, Donald Trump refused to say in debate that he will accept the results of next month's election if he loses to Hillary Clinton. The Democratic nominee declared Trump's resistance "horrifying."
CNN -- Trump refuses to say whether he'll accept election results
Donald Trump on Wednesday refused to say he would accept the result of the presidential election if he loses to Hillary Clinton, raising the possibility of an extraordinary departure from principles that have underpinned American democracy for more than two centuries.
Fox News -- Trump won’t commit to accepting election results
Donald Trump would not commit Wednesday night to accepting the results of the presidential election if he loses on Nov. 8, in a striking moment during his final debate with Hillary Clinton that underscored the deepening tensions in the race – as the bitter rivals defined the choice for voters on an array of issues not three weeks from Election Day.
Politico -- Trump refuses to say he’ll accept losing
Donald Trump delivered another unprecedented historical moment during the final presidential debate Wednesday night when the Republican nominee, who appears on his way to a landslide loss, refused to say that he would accept the election’s outcome.
The Hill -- Trump sparks furor at final debate
Donald Trump's refusal to say that he will accept the presidential election’s outcome overshadowed all else during his third debate with Hillary Clinton, in Las Vegas on Wednesday evening. Virtually no one in the political world argued that the GOP nominee would benefit from the move.
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