STATE POLLING
New polls today from Ohio (tied), Oregon (Clinton +10), Utah (Trump +1), and Michigan (Clinton +13).
Just a handful of polls today, but each interesting in their own way.
Ohio has long been considered one of the bellwether swing states, as in "so goes Ohio, so goes the White House". In the last 18 elections, the only candidate to win Ohio and not win the White House was Richard Nixon in 1960. And while it doesn't have the electoral clout it once had (it's lost about a third of its electoral strength in the past 50 years), it's still a state that gets a lot of attention from candidates and the media. And at this point, it's a dead heat.
Oregon is indicative of the West Coast, which has been solidly blue for some time and shows no sign of changing this time around. One of the reasons even a generic Republican candidate starts off in a bit of a hole is the block of 74 EV's from Washington, Oregon, and California, all part of the "Great Blue Wall" the Democrats have built up over the past several elections. It's to the point now that they only time an Oregonian ever sees a candidate is during the primaries. On the positive side, their mailboxes aren't overflowing with direct mailers and their local TV isn't overrun with SuperPAC and campaign ads.
Utah is a state a lot of people have been writing a lot about, for reasons that are both unusual and quite fascinating from a purely political standpoint. The strong Mormon presence in the state, somewhere around two-thirds of the voting population, has been a large part of why Utah has voted Republican in 15 of the last 16 elections (the exception being Lyndon Johnson in 1964). Yet, this time around, their deeply held beliefs do not line up with Trump, which has opened to door to independent (and Mormon) candidate Even McMullin. It's a three-way race that could go to any one of the three according to the recent polling trends.
And Michigan represents how Trump's initial "Rust Belt" strategy has all but failed him. His original plan was to campaign heavily in the states that have been hit hard by manufacturing job losses -- Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- where he felt he would have strong support from the Republican base. That strategy appears to have maintained Indiana (which went for Obama in 2008 then flipped to Romney in 2012), and we've already covered Ohio, but it has been largely ineffective in Illinois Michigan, and Pennsylvania, states that Trump absolutely needed to have any chance to win.
One change to the map today: Utah moves from "likely" to "leaning" Republican. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.5%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Likely Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
No new national polls today.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump, Clinton spending furiously as Election Day nears
Defying his notorious stinginess, Donald Trump more than doubled his campaign spending last month compared to August. He burned through roughly $70 million as his standing in polls and among fellow Republicans dropped. His Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, spent even more — almost $83 million.
CNN -- Trump delivers harsh remarks on Clinton at charity dinner
Donald Trump abandoned decades of tradition Thursday night with a tough takedown of Hillary Clinton at an annual charity dinner that prompted booing of the Republican presidential nominee.
Fox News -- Trump defends, clarifies wait-and-see approach on election results
Donald Trump on Thursday defended his reluctance at the final presidential debate to declare he’d accept the results of the Nov. 8 election no matter what, saying he reserves the right to contest a “questionable result” – while clarifying that he would accept a “clear election result.”
Politico -- Trump pledges to accept election results — ‘if I win’
Donald Trump will accept the outcome on Nov. 8 — “if I win,” the Republican presidential nominee declared Thursday, mocking critics who have scolded him for suggesting he may not concede the election to Hillary Clinton if he loses.
The Hill -- Trump booed at Al Smith dinner
Donald Trump's appearance at Thursday night's charity event took a tough turn as the crowd repeatedly booed the GOP nominee for his sharp-edged jokes about his rival Hillary Clinton. While the New York fundraiser for Catholic charities always includes the two candidates getting laughs at their rival’s expense, Trump’s lines stuck closely to his campaign’s antagonistic rhetoric after an initially positive start.
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