STATE POLLING
New polls today from Tennessee (Trump +11), Indiana (Trump +5), Ohio (Clinton +1), Nevada (tied), Florida (Clinton +3), New Hampshire (Clinton +2), Michigan (Clinton +11), Rhode Island (Clinton +20), Massachusetts (Clinton +32), Maryland (Clinton +36), and two from Arizona (Clinton +2 and tied).
Covering the polling of this campaign is akin to watching a tennis game where there are a dozen people on the court each hitting their own ball in a random direction. You can isolate certain volleys, but it's often very difficult to see the overall game.
Which is part of the reason to use statistical analysis to get an overall feel for that game instead of just focusing on certain volleys. That's why seeing Clinton suddenly drop in New Hampshire on the same day Trump suddenly drops in Indiana would be be much more alarming if we didn't have multiple recent polls in each state to give us a clearer picture (New Hampshire is still likely Democrat and Indiana is still solidly Republican).
On the same token, several of the other prediction sites are already giving Clinton the edge in Arizona, seemingly based on just the two most recent recent polls. Yes, the race in the Grand Canyon State is very close, but my math (and the cumulative results of the eight most recent polls) doesn't justify flipping the state as of today. Clinton is obviously making some very nice lobs and volleys, to continue my tennis metaphor, but Trump is returning well and staying strongly in the game.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 216. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Georgia: Trump up by 5%
Leaning Republican
Iowa: Trump up by 2.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.4%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.9%
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 1%
Florida: Clinton up by 1.4%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2%
Likely Democrat
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 4.5%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.8%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.3%
Michigan: Clinton up by 6%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
Virginia: Clinton up by 6%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from The Atlantic (just a two-candidate poll) that has Clinton up by six, leading Trump 47% to 41%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.1%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump gets softballs at town hall ahead of Clinton showdown
It had the trappings of a town hall debate. There was a moderator. The audience members had questions. There was a two-minute countdown clock for answers. And Donald Trump carried a microphone while patrolling a small stage.
CNN -- Trump: town hall event has 'nothing to do' with debate prep'
Donald Trump took the stage at a town hall here Thursday night and insisted the forum was not set up to help prepare him for Sunday's town hall-style debate against Hillary Clinton.
Fox News -- FBI files reveal missing email 'boxes' in Clinton case
Buried in the 189 pages of heavily redacted FBI witness interviews from the Hillary Clinton email investigation are details of yet another mystery -- about two missing “bankers boxes” filled with the former secretary of state’s emails.
Politico -- Lobbyist advised Trump campaign while promoting Russian pipeline
A Republican lobbyist was earning hundreds of thousands of dollars to promote one of Vladimir Putin’s top geopolitical priorities at the same time he was helping to shape Donald Trump’s first major foreign policy speech.
The Hill -- Trump blasts media talking heads over Pence debate reports
Donald Trump on Thursday blasted media talking heads for reporting that he was unhappy with his running mate Mike Pence's debate performance against Tim Kaine. When asked about reports that he was upset that Pence got better reviews from his debate performance at a town hall Thursday, Trump went after CNN's John King and CNBC's John Harwood.
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