STATE POLLING
New polls today from Michigan (Clinton +8), Washington (Clinton +17), two from North Carolina (Clinton +1 and Clinton +3), and two from Nevada (Clinton +7 and Clinton +4).
Two weeks from today, the polls will open across the nation and by the end of the evening (likely sooner), we will know who our next President will be. Whether the losing candidate will accept the results, however, is still very much up in the air.
And judging from the fact that not once since this blog was started (and even earlier, when I was posting my data at Fark Politics) has Trump had a lead in the electoral voting. And from the latest week of polls, it appears from where I sit that the question isn't whether Hillary Clinton will win, but by how much. As in, will it be reasonably close or will it be a landslide...and my math is leaning towards landslide.
As for today's polls, no surprises in Michigan, Washington, or North Carolina. The first two are solidly blue, and the Tar Heel State is going to be razor-thin right up to the bitter end. The (slight) surprise is that Clinton appears to be starting to pull away in Nevada, a state that has accurately predicted the winner every election since 1980.
No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Tied
Arizona
Ohio
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.5%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from CNN/ORC that has Clinton ahead by 5, leading Trump 49% to 44%, with Johnson at 3%, and Stein at 2%. Head-to-head, Clinton leads Trump 51% to 45%.
There's also a poll from Centre College, which has been doing polling for some time, that has a similar result: Clinton up by 5, leading Trump 45% to 40%, with Johnson at 6%, and Stein at 1%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.7%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump, with electoral path narrowing, insists he's 'winning'
Even as his path to the presidency narrows, a defiant Donald Trump is insisting he is "winning" and urging his supporters to defy what he is calling an establishment conspiracy to deny the White House to his populist movement.
CNN -- Election law doesn't care if Trump (or Clinton) ever concede
The prospect of election night drama seems to dwindle with each new round of polling. But Donald Trump, perhaps trying to author a campaign cliffhanger, is determined to provide Americans with at least a measure of "suspense" on November 8.
Fox News -- Early voting suggests tight race in key states
Hillary Clinton’s campaign is touting some “eye-popping” advantages in early voting, in an apparent effort to energize Democratic voters, but preliminary figures suggest the race remains tighter than her aides acknowledge.
Politico -- Trump’s love affair with the polls is over
Donald Trump began and ended his rally here by recognizing a tall man standing in the top row of a packed outdoor amphitheater dressed as Abraham Lincoln, pointing up to the silhouette of “Honest Abe’s” famous stovepipe hat against the afternoon sky.
The Hill -- War over polls intensifies
Want a tough job? Trying being a pollster two weeks before Election Day. Donald Trump is ripping pollsters and the media, arguing the surveys are biased against him because many include too many Democrats in their sampling surveys.
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