Thursday, July 28, 2016

102 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Kansas, Missouri, Vermont, Delaware, Oregon, Ohio

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Kansas, Missouri, Vermont, Delaware, Oregon and Ohio. The first two are solidly Republican, while the middle three are securely Democratic. Ohio, as usual, remains one of the classic swing states. 

Currently, Clinton has a 236 to 152 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 341 to 197. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Utah: Trump up by 4.7%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Nevada: Trump up by 0.4%

Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 2.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%

NATIONAL POLLING

New poll today from LA Times/USC (Trump +7) that represents Trump's biggest lead of the season.

The current composite polling average has Trump leading by 1.5%, trending upwards.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Obama’s Speech Made The Best Case For Clinton

(Washingon Post) -- Eight years ago, Hillary Clinton united the Democratic Party behind Barack Obama, helping propel him to the presidency. Four years ago, when Obama was in a close race with Mitt Romney, Bill Clinton defended the president’s record in the most eloquent speech of the 2012 Democratic National Convention. At the time, Obama owed both Clintons a huge debt.

Now, after what will probably turn out to be the best speech of this year’s convention, Obama has paid Clinton back several times over.

Why was the president’s speech so effective? It’s not just that Obama personally vouched for her, though he did that plenty. “There has never been a man or a woman, not me, not Bill, nobody more qualified than Hillary Clinton to serve as president,” he said.

Hillary Clinton To Make Her Case At Convention’s Close

(Wall Street Journal) -- The importance of Hillary Clinton’s Thursday night speech wrapping up the Democratic presidential convention can’t be overstated.

Simply put, Mrs. Clinton won’t get this sort of opportunity again before the election. In the debates in the fall, she’ll share space and airtime with Republican nominee Donald Trump. On Thursday, she’ll have the stage to herself, speaking to a national TV audience in prime time as she officially accepts the Democratic presidential nomination.

Why does it matter so much?  The speech is a chance for Mrs. Clinton to end the slide in her favorability rating and show voters she’s a trustworthy, appealing figure. That’s not an easy task. Pollsters say Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump are the two most disliked presidential nominees in the last quarter-century.

Donald Trump Invites Russia To Hack Into Clinton's Emails

(Los Angeles Times) -- Donald Trump dared a foreign government to commit espionage on the U.S. to hurt his rival on Wednesday, smashing yet another taboo in American political discourse and behavior.

“Russia, if you're listening, I hope you’ll be able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing,” he said, referring to deleted emails from the private account Hillary Clinton used as secretary of State. “I think you’ll probably be rewarded mightily by our press.”

Trump made the taunt during a lengthy and unusual news conference in Doral, Fla., in which he also suggested the Geneva Convention treaties protecting prisoners of war are outdated, told a reporter asking a question to “be quiet” and said the fact that the Democratic National Committee may have been hacked was because foreign leaders lack respect for the U.S. government.

Concern Rising Russian Hackers Could Target Voting Machines

(Washingon Post) -- Russia was behind the hacks into the Democratic National Committee’s computer network that led to the release of thousands of internal emails just before the party’s convention began, U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded.

The FBI is investigating. WikiLeaks promises there is more data to come. The political nature of this cyberattack means that Democrats and Republicans are trying to spin this as much as possible. Even so, we have to accept that someone is attacking our nation’s computer systems in an apparent attempt to influence a presidential election. This kind of cyberattack targets the very core of our democratic process. And it points to the possibility of an even worse problem in November — that our election systems and our voting machines could be vulnerable to a similar attack.

If the intelligence community has indeed ascertained that Russia is to blame, our government needs to decide what to do in response. This is difficult because the attacks are politically partisan, but it is essential. If foreign governments learn that they can influence our elections with impunity, this opens the door for future manipulations, both document thefts and dumps like this one that we see and more subtle manipulations that we don’t see.
    

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