STATE POLLING
New polls today from New Hampshire and Ohio, with some interesting results.
Head-to-head, Clinton is up +2 in NH and tied in Ohio. Add in Johnson and Stein to the mix, and Clinton is tied in NH while up +4 in Ohio. This shows both the volatility of the battleground states and the often uneven effect of third-party candidates and the difficulties of accurate polling.
For the purposes of this site, the four-candidate numbers are being used (when available) to get a better look at each state. Currently, Clinton has a 236 to 136 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 347 to 191. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Kansas: Trump up by 5.8%
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.9%
Utah: Trump up by 4.8%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 2.3%
Ohio: Clinton up by 2.6%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2.6%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
Two new polls today, from Reuters/Ipsos (Clinton +4) and LA Times/USC (tied). As a note, Reuters polls for all four candidates, while the LA Times still only polls for Clinton and Trump.
My current composite polling average has Clinton up nationally by 2.9%, trending downward.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Trump Sells Himself As President
(The Hill) -- Donald Trump electrified the GOP faithful gathered here Thursday evening, as he began to chart a course towards the general election.
In a wide-ranging speech that ran over an hour, Trump had to tackle the difficult job of sealing open rifts in the Republican Party, while making his case to the rest of the American public as the general election began in earnest.
At least in the convention hall, the speech appeared to do much for the former.
And there were several signs of a general election pivot as Trump begins to directly challenge Hillary Clinton. Trump repeatedly vowed to be a voice for Americans that see a “rigged system” run by power players, while painting Clinton as that group’s standard bearer.
How Did Trump’s Speech Get Leaked In Advance?
(Washington Post) -- Donald Trump delivered the biggest speech of his life at the Republican National Convention on Thursday night, but everyone knew what he was going to say ahead of time. Or, at least, they thought they did — he went off script, at times — because a copy of the GOP nominee's prepared remarks supplied to news outlets under embargo was published early.
That probably sounds like a simple story. It's not. Politico posted the full text of Trump's speech at 6:21 p.m., saying it had "obtained" a draft copy. With the embargo broken, other publications, including The Washington Post, followed suit.
Politico ran a follow-up story by Kenneth P. Vogel that shed some light on the situation: A super PAC backing Hillary Clinton on Thursday night mysteriously obtained and leaked drafts of Donald Trump’s nomination speech — and those of several other convention speakers — hours before the night's proceedings were set to kick off, sending the Trump campaign scrambling on the final night of what has been a chaotic convention.
Ivanka Trump Delivers In Prime-Time
(CNN) -- Ivanka Trump pitched her father, Donald Trump, to the nation's female voters Thursday night, revealing a softer side of the billionaire businessman in a way that almost no other convention speaker has done so far.
His 34-year-old daughter regaled the crowd with childhood stories about Legos and his favorite adages, rounding out the image of the sometimes hard-edged politician that's emerged over the campaign. And in the well-received, prime-time speech, she made a direct appeal to women, who are breaking in polls for rival Hillary Clinton.
After a week in which Republicans largely focused on Clinton's deficiencies rather than on Trump's attributes and personal story, Ivanka Trump offered a new window into the Republican nominee.
"If It's possible to be famous and not really well-known, that describes the father who raised me," she told the crowd.
McConnell: Trump 'Wrong' on NATO
(Politico) -- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell stressed Thursday that he disagrees with Donald Trump's assertion that the United States shouldn't immediately defend NATO allies, seeking to reassure the international community the U.S. would continue to come to the aid of countries in the alliance if they are attacked.
"I disagree with that," McConnell said in an interview with POLITICO on Thursday at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. "NATO is the most important military alliance in world history. I want to reassure our NATO allies that if any of them get attacked, we'll be there to defend them."
Trump triggered an international uproar Thursday — and a rebuke from many Republican officials — when the GOP nominee said he wouldn't automatically come to the defense of America's NATO allies if they are attacked.
Trump made the comments in a New York Times interview published late Wednesday. When asked about the threat Russia poses to smaller Baltic nations, Trump said the United States should defend NATO allies that are attacked only if they had "fulfilled their obligations to us."
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