STATE POLLING
New polls from Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio. I've also gone through in detail each state in the database searching for any missing polls, and have added additional polling data to Utah, Missouri, Vermont, Illinois, and California.
Currently, Clinton has a 236 to 136 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 347 to 191. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Kansas: Trump up by 5.8%
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.9%
Utah: Trump up by 4.8%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 2.1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 3.7%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
Three new polls today from ABC News/Wash Post (Clinton +4), NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl (Clinton +6), and CNN/ORC (Clinton +5).
Currently my composite polling average has Clinton up nationally by 5.3%.
Of note, I am now using the four-candidate polls in my cumulative averaging -- Clinton, Trump, Johnson and Stein -- instead of just the Clinton vs Trump polls (when available).
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Pre-Convention, Republicans Increasingly Predict Unity
(CNN) -- Republicans kick off their national convention Monday night with GOP voters nationally more convinced that their party will be able to unite before the election, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll. They are also mostly against procedural efforts aimed at unseating Donald Trump as the Republican nominee.
Overall, 68% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say their party will eventually unite, 7 points behind the share of Democrats who say their party will come together by November. Though Republicans have gained ground on predictions of unity, they remain far less likely than Democrats to see their party as united now (35% of Democrats say so vs. 16% of Republicans).
Increasing that sense of unity is a primary goal for the convention this week, and Republicans broadly oppose efforts some have made to disrupt Trump's nomination. More than 6-in-10 Republicans say they disapprove of efforts to change convention rules so that delegates are no longer bound by the results of their state's primary or caucus. Even among those Republicans who would prefer someone other than Trump as the nominee, 60% oppose those efforts.
Security Fears Hang Over GOP Convention
(The Hill) -- Thousands of demonstrators for and against Donald Trump are descending on the Republican National Convention, creating a volatile mix that is keeping law enforcement officials on edge.
Several groups are planning to protest, including the New Black Panther Party and the Oath Keepers, an anti-government group that has raised the prospect of carrying weapons.
Indeed, Ohio’s open-carry laws, which permit people to carry guns in the broader event zone but in the immediate vicinity of the convention, have become an added worry for organizers.
“Our intent is to follow the law,” Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson said at a press conference. “And if the law says you can have open carry, that’s what it says. Whether I agree with it or not is another issue.”
Team Clinton Launches Counter-Convention in Cleveland
(WSJ) -- The spotlight will be trained on Donald Trump and the GOP this week when Republicans gather at their national convention in Cleveland, but Hillary Clinton isn’t willing to cede the next several days to her general-election rival.
The presumptive Democratic nominee plans to punch back with a week’s worth of counter-programming aimed at undercutting Mr. Trump’s message and mobilizing Clinton voters.
Mrs. Clinton will spend the next couple days on the campaign trail, speaking to key constituencies and rallying voters in swing states. Meantime, Clinton campaign aides and surrogates will launch a counter-convention in Cleveland, responding to Republican rhetoric in real time. Add in an expected vice-presidential announcement during the coming days, and Democrats are hoping to make some headlines of their own this week.
United Suspends Pilot Who Called for Hanging Hillary Clinton
(Bloomberg) -- United Airlines suspended pilot and Republican West Virginia lawmaker Michael Folk from flying pending an investigation after he said Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton should be executed.
“This pilot has been removed from flying pending our investigation,” United Continental Holdings Inc. tweeted Sunday. “We are appalled by his threatening comments.”
Folk, a member of the West Virginia House of Delegates, in a tweet said that Clinton should be tried for treason and then “hung on the mall in Washington, D.C.,” according to CNN. The tweet has since been deleted. Reached on his mobile phone, Folk declined to comment. Folk told CNN he was being hyperbolic in his tweet about Clinton, who has been under fire for revelations that she used a private e-mail address to conduct government business as secretary of state.
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