Saturday, July 23, 2016

107 Days Till Election Day: New poll from Alabama

STATE POLLING

Just one new poll today, this one from Alabama which, unsurprisingly, has Trump ahead by 24 points.

Currently, Clinton has a 236 to 136 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 347 to 191. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Kansas: Trump up by 5.8%
Mississippi: Trump up by 5.1%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.9%
Utah: Trump up by 4.8%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.2%

Iowa: Clinton up by 1.6%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 2.3%
Ohio: Clinton up by 2.6%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2.6%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 4.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 4.7%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5%
Florida: Clinton up by 5.5% 

NATIONAL POLLING

No new national polls today. Most pollsters wait until a couple of days after a convention ends to measure the true "bounce" generally seen after each party's convention. So we should be getting a raft of new polls tomorrow or Monday.

My current composite polling average has Clinton up nationally by 2.9%.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Clinton Picks Virginia's Sen. Kaine as Running Mate

(Washington Post) -- Hillary Clinton has chosen Sen. Timothy M. Kaine (Va.) as her vice-presidential running mate, completing a Democratic ticket that prizes experience and traditional notions of public service in a political year dominated by Republican rival Donald Trump’s unorthodox, highly personal brand of leadership.

Kaine, 58, a former Virginia governor, Richmond mayor and Democratic National Committee chairman, was chosen after a search that included riskier and more unconventional candidates who offered greater appeal to the party’s liberal base.

He was a longtime favorite to become Clinton’s running mate, however, in part because of the political and personal attributes she considers well-suited to the governing partnership she seeks — and in part because of the calculation that the experience of a Clinton-Kaine ticket would outgun Trump’s outsider bombast.

Obama Disputes Trump's Criticisms of U.S.

(USA Today) -- President Obama dismissed Donald Trump's criticism of conditions in the United States on Friday, saying crime is actually down, the economy is up, and most Americans believe things are going relatively well.

“This idea that America is somehow on the verge of collapse — this vision of violence and chaos everywhere — doesn’t really jibe with the experience of most people,” Obama told reporters the day after Trump painted a dark picture of the United States in formally accepting the Republican presidential nomination.

"We're not going to make good decisions based on fears that don't have a basis in fact," Obama later said as he repeatedly weighed in on the race to be his successor. "That, I think, is something that I hope all Americans pay attention to."

Trump Takes Time From Victory Lap To Swat At Ted Cruz

(Washington Post) -- A day after accepting the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump pivoted back to the GOP primaries on Friday, choosing to re-litigate a pair of monthsold battles with rival Ted Cruz.

In what should have been a feel-good victory lap the morning after his thundering acceptance speech, Trump instead defended his decision to retweet an unflattering photo of Cruz’s wife, Heidi, and returned to wondering about possible links between Cruz’s father and President John F. Kennedy’s assassin. He also declared that he would never accept the Texas senator’s backing.

“He’ll come and endorse. It’s because he has no choice. But I don’t want his endorsement,” Trump said. “Ted, stay home. Relax. Enjoy yourself.” 

Republican Convention Falls Short of TV Ratings Expectations

(New York Times) -- Television is Donald J. Trump’s comfort zone, the medium where he ruled as master of “The Apprentice,” lured record audiences to Republican primary debates, and deftly outmaneuvered opponents with his camera-ready skills.

For politicos and producers alike, the Republican National Convention here this week was widely anticipated as a ratings bonanza.

It did not live up to the hype.

About 32 million Americans watched Mr. Trump’s climactic acceptance speech on Thursday evening on the major cable news and broadcast channels, according to ratings from Nielsen, released on Friday.
  

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