STATE POLLING
There's a new old player on the scene today. And while "new old" may sound like an oxymoron, in this case it's the only way to describe UPI (United Press International) teaming up with CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) to conduct a 49-state polling project.
While both organizations have been around for some time (the India-based CVoter has covered over 30 international elections since 2000), this is the first time they have done a state-by-state poll. And after reviewing their results, the vast majority seem to be within the "margin of believability" (a test that online polling firm Ipsos failed, which is why we removed their polls from our database).
The polls, which included the District of Columbia but not Hawaii, were conducted between September 12-25. Here are the results from the battleground states:
Arizona (Trump +10), Georgia (Trump +8), Virginia (Trump +4), North Carolina (Trump +3), Florida (Trump +2), Iowa (Trump +2), Ohio (Trump +1), Pennsylvania (Trump +1), Nevada (Clinton +1), New Hampshire (Clinton +1), Minnesota (Clinton +4), Colorado (Clinton +4), Michigan (Clinton +4), Wisconsin (Clinton +4), and New Mexico (Clinton +5).
The only two states raised an eyebrow were Arizona and Virginia, where Trump's results were out of the norm for recent polling. Granted he had been trending up of late in Arizona, but in Virginia this appears to be an outlier. As it stands, though, every other state was within the norm of recent polling.
The changes to the map today have Texas moving to "safe" and Georgia moving from "lean" to "likely". Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 301 to 237. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Georgia: Trump up by 5%
Leaning Republican
Arizona: Trump up by 3.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 2.4%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.3%
Nevada: Trump up by 1.4%
North Carolina: Trump up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Florida: Clinton up by 0.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 1.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 2%
Likely Democrat
Michigan: Clinton up by 4%
Virginia: Clinton up by 4%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.2%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.8%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.9%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Politico/Morning Consult (Clinton +3) and UPI/CVoter (Clinton +1).
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 3.1%, trending downwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- As Clinton cheers, Donald Trump digs in after debate
A defensive Donald Trump gave Hillary Clinton plenty of fresh material for the next phase of her presidential campaign on Tuesday, choosing to publicly reopen and relitigate some her most damaging attacks.
Buzzfeed -- Trump’s Supporters Have Mixed Feelings About His Debate Performance
A day after his contentious first presidential debate with Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump held a rally Tuesday evening in a hanger at Melbourne International Airport, filling the venue to capacity with an estimated 15,000 people.
CNN -- Miss Universe strikes back against Trump
Former "Miss Universe" Alicia Machado struck back Tuesday against insults hurled at her by Donald Trump, saying that he was "aggressive" and "really rude." Machado, who represented Venezuela in Trump's 1996 "Miss Universe" competition said that Trump called her "Miss Housekeeping" and "Miss Piggy" when she gained weight after winning the beauty pageant.
Fox News -- Clinton, Trump trade taunts after testy debate
The day after Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traded verbal jousts in the most-watched presidential debate in history, the Republican and Democratic candidates slammed each other while thousands of miles apart Tuesday. At an evening rally in Melbourne, Fla., Trump said the former secretary of state was "stuck in the past."
Politico -- Gary Johnson hits Trump and Clinton in NYT op-ed
Seeking to play on voters’ dissatisfaction with both major-party candidates, Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson wrote an op-ed published in Wednesday’s New York Times that “the America I know wasn’t on the television screen on Monday night.”
The Hill -- GOP lawmakers give Trump bad reviews on debate performance
GOP nominee Donald Trump was ill-prepared for Monday night’s debate. He missed opportunities to knock Democrat Hillary Clinton off her stride, especially concerning her private email server. And he came across as too defensive at times.
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