Thursday, September 8, 2016

60 Days Till Election Day: The Final Two Months

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Florida, Pennsylvania (here and here), New Hampshire (here and here), Iowa (here and here), Virginia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Missouri, Connecticut, Vermont, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Maine (CD1) and (CD2), and Massachusetts.

Yes, we're getting into the home stretch of an election season that feels like it started nearly two years ago ... in large [part because it basically did start that long ago.  As it is, we are getting lots of polls every day now.

The interesting pieces from today's batch are Trump going up in Florida over Clinton by 1% as well as getting a big jump in South Carolina (+12), while Clinton goes up on Trump in Arizona by 1% and bounces back in Pennsylvania (+8).

Currently, Clinton has a 200 to 155 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 340 to 198.  Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Leaning Republican

South Carolina: Trump up by 5.6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 4%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.7%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.7%
Iowa: Trump up by 1.4%

Leaning Democrat

Ohio: Clinton up by 0.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.1%
Michigan: Clinton up by 2.7%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 3.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3.5%
Florida: Clinton up by 3%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.6%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.3%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.6%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.9%

Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

NATIONAL POLLING

New polls today from George Washington University, The Economist, and Reuters, all showing Clinton up 2% over Trump in a four-candidate field.

GWU has Clinton up 42-40 over Trump, with Johnson at 11% and Stein at 3%, The Economist has it 40-38 with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 5%, while Reuters has it 40-38 with Johnson at 8% and Stein at 3%.

The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 2.1%, trending downward.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Obama: Americans will reject Trump's 'wacky' ideas

President Barack Obama said Thursday that Republican Donald Trump proves he isn't qualified to be president "every time he speaks," adding that he was confident Americans would ultimately reject the brash billionaire on Election Day.

CNN -- Clinton, Trump tackle national security issues

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump clashed Wednesday over national security issues that exposed deep divides about how to manage the military and conduct foreign policy in an increasingly complex world.

Fox News -- Colin Powell gave Clinton tips for private email use

The top Democrat on the House committee investigating Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's use of a private email system released an email exchange Wednesday between former Secretary of State Colin Powell and Clinton in which he advised her on circumventing State Department servers.

Buzzfeed -- Arrest Warrant Issued For Green Party Candidate Jill Stein

A judge in North Dakota issued an arrest warrant for Jill Stein and her running mate Wednesday after they allegedly spray painted equipment being used to build an oil pipeline.

Politico -- Trump's pay-for-play scandal intensifies

The swirl of scandal around Donald Trump’s donation to Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi is intensifying, with the Republican nominee and his aides vigorously pushing back against the idea that he bought the decision by Bondi to not pursue an investigation into his Trump University.

The Hill -- Dems sound alarm on Senate majority

The campaign chairman for Senate Democrats on Wednesday warned his colleagues that if the elections were held today, the party would gain only three Senate seats, according to lawmakers who were in the room.
  

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