STATE POLLING
New polls today from Florida (Trump +4), Michigan (Clinton +6), and Utah (Trump +15). Oh, and Reuters/Ipsos just dropped another huge batch of polls for 43 of the 50 states, so it's been another busy morning filled with spreadsheet fun and mathematical exuberance.
And, as expected with such a volatile election, there was a bit of movement in the prediction map. Pennsylvania and Michigan have moved to "solid Democrat", while Florida switches to "leaning Republican". This means that Clinton now has a 236 to 155 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 311 to 227.
Overall, this was a fairly good round of polling for Trump. With the exception of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Virginia, he either narrowed Clinton's lead or increased his own leads in most of the swing states. Ohio is all but a toss-up right now, Florida is leaning his way, and four of the Clinton-leaning swing states are now within 3% of even.
The problem for Trump, however, is that Pennsylvania, Michigan and Virginia represent 49 absolutely vital electoral votes, and if he has any realistic chance of wining the White House, he needs at least two of those three states to flip his way. Plus, he has to keep fighting for everything he's worth in Florida and Ohio to corral their 47 combined votes.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.3%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 4%
Georgia: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.3%
Iowa: Trump up by 2%
Florida: Trump up by 0.2%
Leaning Democrat
Ohio: Clinton up by 0.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 2.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 2.7%
Colorado: Clinton up by 2.8%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.8%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from NBC News and Gravis.
NBC has Clinton up by two, leading Trump 42% to 40%, with Johnson at 11% and Stein at 4%. Gravis has Clinton up by three, leading Trump 43% to 40%, with Johnson at 13% and Stein at 0%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 2.5%, trending downwards.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton tries to blunt fallout from not disclosing pneumonia
When Hillary Clinton was diagnosed with pneumonia late last week, she informed a handful of her closest advisers, but pressed on with a busy campaign schedule and did not inform the public that she was sick. "I just didn't think it was going to be that big a deal," she said.
Buzzfeed -- RNC Chair: Reasonable For People To Not Accept Clinton’s Health Explanation
Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus says it’s reasonable for people to not accept what Hillary Clinton’s campaign is saying about her health. Appearing on Sean Hannity’s radio program on Monday, Priebus said he didn’t know what was going with Clinton’s health.
CNN -- Clinton campaign manager: Staff to blame for slow health disclosure
There is "absolutely not" any illness in Hillary Clinton's medical records that hasn't been disclosed, her campaign manager said Monday. Robby Mook told CNN's Jake Tapper it was the fault of Clinton's staff that the press wasn't told for 90 minutes where the former secretary of state had gone.
Fox News -- Lawmaker issues subpoena to FBI for Clinton probe records
A senior House Republican on Monday escalated the GOP's battle with the FBI over its decision not to recommend criminal charges against Hillary Clinton for her use of a private email system, serving a top FBI official with a subpoena for the investigation's full case file.
Politico -- Clinton’s secrecy rankles Democrats
It’s not her health that’s worrying Democrats. It’s her secrecy. Hillary Clinton went dark on Monday, a day after collapsing on a New York City street and only belatedly disclosing a pneumonia diagnosis that she learned of two days earlier. She was finally heeding her doctor’s prescription of rest, she said.
The Hill -- September disaster for Clinton campaign
Hillary Clinton’s health problems — and, in particular, the shocking video of her being helped into a van on Sunday — are the worst developments yet for a campaign that has hit a serious rough patch.
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