Monday, October 24, 2016

14 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Texas, Florida

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Texas (Trump +3) and Florida (Clinton +3).

There are two weeks of campaigning left, and then we go to the polls (at least, those who haven't already early voted). Considering this election season feels like it started back around 2012, it's almost hard to believe we're this close to the finish line.

And as it stands, the GOP has to be quietly looking in the mirror every morning and asking themselves how did they get here. And not it a good way. Waking up two weeks before Election Day to find their hated opponent, Hillary Clinton, leading in must-win Florida and within the margin of error in Texas, of all states, has to be some sort of nightmare.

Then again, if this race has proven one thing, it's that all the "conventional wisdom" of how campaigns are supposed to play out are completely out the door.

In other words, hold on to your hat, it's going to be a wild finish.

No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
 
Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.7%

Leaning Republican

Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%

Tied

Arizona
Ohio

Leaning Democrat

Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%

Likely Democrat

Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

NATIONAL POLLING

New poll today from ABC News that has Clinton ahead of Trump by 12%, leading 50% to 38%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 2%. In a head-to-head match-up, Clinton has a 53% to 41% lead, so they are basically splitting the third-party candidate support.

The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.2%.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- With email dumps, WikiLeaks tests power of full transparency

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange first outlined the hypothesis nearly a decade ago: Can total transparency defeat an entrenched group of insiders?

CNN -- The tumultuous 2016 campaign is in a sudden limbo

The most dramatic and unpredictable presidential election in decades is suddenly slipping into a strange state of suspended animation.

Fox News -- Clinton camp denies looking to Senate races, red states to cap foregone victory

The Clinton campaign on Sunday denied assertions that it thinks the White House race is now a lock and has moved toward trying for a blowout victory over Republican rival Donald Trump while attempting to take control of the Senate.

Politico -- Trump’s window is closing

With two weeks to go, Donald Trump’s path to an Election Night win is almost entirely closed. Hillary Clinton enters the final 15 days of the race safely ahead in states worth more than 270 electoral votes.

The Hill -- Trump's growth projections leave economists in disbelief

Economists are dubious of Donald Trump’s claim that he could more than triple economic growth if elected president. Trump has repeatedly blasted the gross domestic product (GDP) numbers under President Obama as pathetically low, promising he would change the trajectory by building a “tremendous economic machine.”
 

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