Monday, October 17, 2016

21 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Utah, Florida, Colorado, Virginia

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Utah (Trump +17), Florida (Clinton +4), Colorado (Clinton +5), and Virginia (Clinton +15).

Utah is just getting weird. One week, Trump is well ahead, the next he's tied with Clinton and bare points ahead of independent candidate Evan McMullin, and now he's back well ahead with Clinton and McMullin in a distant tie for second place.

Which may be the only bright spot, polling wise, Trump has had in the past week or so. Florida and Colorado continue to move away from him, and Virginia is now pretty much a lost cause (even though Trump claims he's "just moving staff around" in the state instead of pulling out completely, as had been reported several days earlier).

It's not really clear at this point what he can do to turn around his cratering campaign (calling the election "rigged" and accusing Clinton of taking "performance enhancing drugs" are not the way to do it), but he really only has until Wednesday night to figure out how to get the runaway train back on the tracks. For that's the night of the last head-to-head debate between the two candidates, and his last chance to change the dynamics of the race.

Two changes to the map today: Utah moves from "likely" to "solid" Republican while Virginia moves from "likely" to "solid" Democrat. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
 
Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.9%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 5.2%

Leaning Republican

Iowa: Trump up by 3.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.3%

Leaning Democrat

Florida: Clinton up by 2.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%
Nevada: Clinton up by 3%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 3.3%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.5%

Likely Democrat

Colorado: Clinton up by 4%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.3%

Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

NATIONAL POLLING

New polls today from NBC News/Wall St. Journal (Clinton +11) and Lake Research/Tarrance Group (Clinton +8).

The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.7%.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Koch brothers' network focusing on GOP Senate, not Trump

To the Republicans in the red "Can't Afford Katie" T-shirts, it's as if Donald Trump doesn't even exist. These activists have been sprinting through Pennsylvania neighborhoods, talking to people about how bad Democrat Katie McGinty would be as a U.S. senator.

CNN -- Conservative newspaper that endorsed Clinton details death threats

The Arizona Republic's editorial board knew it was wading into controversy last month when it endorsed a Democrat for president -- the first time it had done so in its 126-year history. Nut some of the backlash that followed the paper's decision to back Hillary Clinton instead of Donald Trump went beyond the pale

Fox News -- Team Trump relentless on saying media 'rigging' election

The Donald Trump campaign on Sunday heaped more blame on the media, accusing news organizations of “rigging” the election for Democratic rival Hillary Clinton but vowing to accept the Nov. 8 results -- win or lose. "We will absolutely accept the results of the election," Republican vice-presidential nominee Mike Pence said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Politico -- North Carolina county GOP office attacked; Trump blames 'animals'

A North Carolina Republican Party office was firebombed overnight and threatening words painted nearby, party officials reported Sunday. According to the Charlotte Observer, the attack occurred in the party's Orange County office in Hillsborough.

The Hill -- Republicans fear for party's future

The Republican Party is in crisis — and it is going to get worse before it gets better. The forces unleashed by Donald Trump’s presidential campaign are unlikely to disappear after the election, party insiders concede, even if Hillary Clinton beats him handily in November.
 

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