Saturday, October 8, 2016

30 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Florida, Wisconsin, Washington

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Florida (Clinton +2), Wisconsin (Clinton +8), and Washington (Clinton +16).

As we enter into the final 30 days of the election season, which seemingly has lasted since time began, we have a small batch of polls with continued good news for Team Clinton.

Of course, the big question on everyone's mind today is how much damage will the release of the Trump "locker room talk" video do to his polling numbers. Since the story broke (see below), it has dominated all media, traditional and social, and sets the stage for what could well be the defining debate of the entire campaign Sunday night.

No changes to the map today. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 216. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Likely Republican

Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Georgia: Trump up by 5%

Leaning Republican

Arizona: Trump up by 3.3%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.9%

Leaning Democrat

Nevada: Clinton up by 0.8%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.1%

Likely Democrat

Colorado: Clinton up by 4.5%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.8%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.3%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
Virginia: Clinton up by 6%

Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

NATIONAL POLLING

New polls today from Quinnipiac and FOX News. Quinnipiac has Clinton up by five, leading Trump 45% to 40%, with Johnson at 6% and Stein at 3%. FOX has Clinton up by two, leading Trump 44% to 42%, with Johnson at Johnson at 6% and Stein at 2%.

The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.6%.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Republicans reeling after Trump's vulgar comments revealed

In a videotaped midnight apology, Donald Trump declared "I was wrong and I apologize" after being caught on tape making shockingly vulgar and sexually charged comments. Yet he also defiantly dismissed the revelations as "nothing more than a distraction" from a decade ago and signaled he would close his presidential campaign by arguing rival Hillary Clinton has committed greater sins against women.

CNN -- Can Donald Trump recover from this?

Donald Trump's October Surprise is so explicit, shocking, offensive and vile that even he felt the need to apologize -- defiantly. In a video released after midnight Saturday, Trump expressed regret for stunning comments that surfaced Friday about women.

Fox News -- Leaked tape captures Trump in crude rant with TV host

A leaked video from 2005 captured Donald Trump using lewd language discussing women with a television host just before he made a cameo appearance on a soap opera. On the tape, Trump bragged about kissing and groping women while chatting with "Access Hollywood" host Billy Bush

Politico -- Is Trump's campaign over?

It’s fitting that the election of Hillary Clinton as the first female president might have been sealed by Donald Trump’s treatment of women as subordinate, interchangeable, pliable playthings.

The Hill -- Trump plunged into crisis as GOP recoils from vulgar remarks

Donald Trump sought to quell an uproar that threatens to send his campaign to ruin early Saturday, apologizing in a midnight video for obscene sexual remarks caught on tape in 2005. The apology for the lewd remarks, which featured crude and aggressive sexual slang, came less than 48 hours before Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton are scheduled to meet in the second presidential debate.

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