Saturday, October 22, 2016

16 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Maine, Louisiana, Virginia, Florida, Indiana, Utah, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Georgia

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Maine CD1 (Clinton +10) and Maine CD 2 (Clinton +1), Louisiana (Trump +20), Virginia (Clinton +12), Florida (Clinton +4), Indiana (Trump +6), Utah (Trump +3), Missouri (Trump +8), Pennsylvania (Clinton +5), New Hampshire (Clinton +8), and three from Georgia (Trump +4, Trump +2, Trump +4).

Another healthy dose of polling that has a few things stand out.

First, Pennsylvania had for a while looked to be all but sewn up for Team Clinton. Then "the tape" dropped...and ever since then, the race has been tightening up in the Keystone State. Hey, no one ever said politics makes sense. This is a state Trump absolutely has to have if he has any chance at winning this race, so this is good news for him at a time when any good news is extremely welcome.

On the flip side, Team Clinton has be enjoying what's happening in Georgia. Yes, Trump maintains his lead, but it's close enough that Clinton and supportive PACs are dropping an increasing amount of money into the Peach State in the hope to steal one right out of the Deep South.

And for a while it's looked like Trump might snag one of Maine's EV's by taking the more rural 2nd Congressional District. And while he's still leading there, it's a lot closer than it had been, so it's looking less likely as we get closer to Election Day.

One change to the map today: Maine CD2 moves from "likely" to "leaning" Republican. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 187. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Likely Republican

Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 4.4%

Leaning Republican

Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%

Tied

Arizona
Ohio

Leaning Democrat

Nevada: Clinton up by 2%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.2%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.9%

Likely Democrat

Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.2%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%

Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

NATIONAL POLLING

No new national polls today.

The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7%.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Clinton campaign ponders 'what if' Trump doesn't concede

Hillary Clinton's campaign is increasingly preparing for the possibility that Donald Trump may never concede the presidential election should she win, a development that could enormously complicate the crucial early weeks of her preparations to take office.

CNN -- Trump to make 'closing argument,' lay out plan for first 100 days

Donald Trump will lay out his plans for the first 100 days of his presidency in a speech Saturday that the Republican nominee's senior campaign aides are billing as his "closing argument" in the presidential race.

Fox News -- Clinton lectured State Dept. staff on cybersecurity in 2010 video

Despite conducting her own government business through a personal “homebrew” server while secretary of state, Hillary Clinton is seen in a newly obtained video lecturing her staff of their “special duty” to recognize the importance of cybersecurity.

Politico -- Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets

Wall Street is set up for a major crash if Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House. New research out on Friday suggests that financial markets strongly prefer a Hillary Clinton presidency and could react with panicked selling should Trump defy the polls and deliver a shocking upset on Nov. 8.

The Hill -- State Department releases new batch of Clinton emails

The State Department on Friday released 112 of the 15,000 Hillary Clinton emails uncovered by the FBI during its investigation into the former secretary of State’s personal email server.  Many of the documents — comprising about 240 pages — are “near duplicates” of documents Clinton provided to the State Department in 2014 and have already been made public, according to the agency.
 

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