Monday, October 10, 2016

28 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Florida (Clinton +3), Ohio (Clinton +4), Wisconsin (Clinton +4), and two from Pennsylvania (Clinton +12 and Clinton +8).

These are the first polls released that overlapped the "Access Hollywood" video leak, and it's continued bad news for Donald Trump. Very bad news. And judging from the weekend's headlines and last night's "Fury in Missouri" debate, it would not be surprising at all to see things get a lot worse as the week progresses.

With the latest round of polls, the map has changed (again), moving Ohio to "leaning Democrat" and moving Pennsylvania to "solid Democrat" and off of battleground status. With the changes, Clinton now has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198.

Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
 
Likely Republican

Maine (CD2): Trump up by 6.9%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Georgia: Trump up by 5%

Leaning Republican

Iowa: Trump up by 3.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.4%

Leaning Democrat

Nevada: Clinton up by 1%
Ohio: Clinton up by 1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.2%

Likely Democrat

Colorado: Clinton up by 4.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 4.8%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 5%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.3%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%

Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

NATIONAL POLLING

New poll today from The Economist, which has Clinton up by six, leading Trump 44% to 38%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 1%.

The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.3%, trending upwards.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Backed in a corner, Trump clawed through debate

Bleeding supporters and running out of time, Donald Trump fought and clawed his way through his second debate with Democrat Hillary Clinton. In the process, he gave his base of die-hard supporters the performance they've long wanted, but offered little for the broader audience of Americans still resistant to a Trump presidency.

CNN -- Clinton wins, Trump exceeds expectations, but few move

Hillary Clinton scored a second victory over Donald Trump in Sunday night's presidential debate, according to debate watchers in a new CNN/ORC poll. But even though he trailed Clinton overall, Trump far exceeded debate watchers' expectations.

Fox News -- Trump vows to appoint "special proesecutor" to investigate Clinton

Donald Trump said Sunday that if elected, he would instruct his attorney general to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Hillary Clinton’s email controversy and that if he were president today she would “be in jail.”

Politico -- The Ugliest Debate Ever

It was the ugliest debate in American history. For 90 minutes, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton called each other liars, untrustworthy and unfit for office as they sparred not so much about their policy differences as their basic character.

The Hill -- Five takeaways from second presidential debate

Americans tuning in for the second presidential debate on Sunday night got a heaping helping of adult-only television. The debate started off in the gutter, with Donald and Hillary Clinton delving deep into personal details of their private lives. Things got nastier from there.
 

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