STATE POLLING
New polls today from Nevada (Clinton +4), Ohio (Clinton +9), Utah (tied), Maine CD1 (Clinton +17) and Maine CD2 (Trump +1), Missouri (Trump +5), Florida (Clinton +3), Wisconsin (Clinton +7), Pennsylvania (Clinton +9), New Hampshire (Clinton +11), and two from Michigan (Clinton +11 and Clinton +10).
Simply put, Friday's release of the vulgar conversation between Donald Trump and the now unemployed Billy Bush, has all but devastated Trump's presidential campaign. One needs to look no further that Utah, one of the reddest of the red states, having voted Republican in 16 of the past 17 elections, where he is now tied with Hillary Clinton.
In fact, Utah may create even further havoc this year, as Trump and Clinton are tied at 26%, with independent candidate (and Mormon) Evan McMullin at 22%, just four points behind. McMullin could become the first independent candidate to win electoral votes since George Wallace in the 1968 election.
This precipitous drop required an adjustment to the algorithm we use, as it stands far outside the previous norm. Considering the poll was conducted by the very conservative Deseret News, owned by and viewed as the voice of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, using very accepted methodology, one has to accept the results. As it stands, it's the single largest change in support of any state in any poll this campaign season.
Another prime example of the effect on the tape is to look at the Wisconsin poll conducted by Marquette University, which started on Thursday and ended on Sunday. The Washington Post has a good article on it, which shows how support dropped precipitously in all voter demographics from the start to the finish of the poll, including an jaw-dropping decline of -24% among both women and evangelicals from Thursday to Sunday.
With just 25 days left, and all but open civil war roiling within the Republican Party over whether to support Trump or not, what we have by all appearances is a campaign in complete turmoil.
Two changes to the map today: Utah moves from "solid" to "likely" Republican, while Michigan moves from "likely" to "solid" Democrat. Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 340 to 198. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Utah: Trump up by 6.8%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 5.3%
Georgia: Trump up by 5%
Leaning Republican
Iowa: Trump up by 3.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.4%
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.8%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.9%
Florida: Clinton up by 2.5%
Ohio: Clinton up by 2.6%
Likely Democrat
Colorado: Clinton up by 4.2%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.1%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.9%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 6.9%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from Reuters that has Clinton up by seven, leading Trump nationally 44% to 37%, with Johnson at 6% and Stein at 2%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 7.6%
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Ryan's break from Trump prompts talk of GOP rebellion
House Speaker Paul Ryan's abandonment of Donald Trump is aimed at protecting Republican control of the House. But it may test his hold on his own job and his long-term ambitions.
CNN -- Trump faces more groping allegations
Two women told The New York Times in a report published Wednesday night that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump touched them inappropriately, allegations that were swiftly followed by a similar claim in People magazine.
Fox News -- Trump demands NYT retract 'libelous article' as new allegations of sexual assault emerge
Four women accused Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump of sexual assault on Wednesday in a series of reports, adding to the already damaging revelations about his suggestive comments about women.
Politico -- Trump spokeswoman: Accusers want ’15 minutes of fame'
Donald Trump campaign spokeswoman Katrina Pierson late Wednesday said four women have come forward to accuse Donald Trump of sexual misconduct because they want "15 minutes of fame.”
The Hill -- Could the House really flip?
House Democrats are thinking the once unthinkable: That they have a real shot at winning the lower chamber next month. Such a shift would require a robust wave, as the Democrats would need to steal at least 30 seats from the largest Republican majority in decades.
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