New polls today from Louisiana (Trump +15), Missouri (Trump +5), Utah (Trump +4), Georgia (Trump +1), Iowa (tied), Arizona (Clinton +2), Washington (Clinton +14), California (Clinton +26), Massachusetts (Clinton +32), two from Ohio (Trump +2 and Trump +3). two from Nevada (Clinton +1 and Clinton +2), two from Michigan (Clinton +7 and Clinton +6), two from Virginia (Clinton +12 and Clinton +7), three from Pennsylvania (Clinton +8, Clinton +7, Clinton +7), three from New Hampshire (Clinton +9, Clinton +5, Clinton +8), four from Florida (Trump +3, Trump +6, Clinton +4, tied), and five from North Carolina (Clinton +4, Clinton +2, Clinton +2, Clinton +7, Clinton +3).
Yeah, that's a whole lot of polling. As one of my favorite T-shirts says, "Stand back! I'm about to do math!" And what a lot of math it is...
First of, let's get the two big results out of the way: we finally have polls from Ohio, and some very interesting results from Florida. In Ohio, Trump has retaken the lead, but only by a slim margin. That's very important to his campaign. But what's really going to make the folks in Trump Tower happy today are the results from Florida, where he has overtaken his Democratic rival.
And while the above results are indeed good news for the Trump campaign, there are also some troubling polls to contend with, including Utah and Georgia still being far too competitive for comfort, and Missouri apparently coming into play a bit.
Plus, Clinton is moving Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire even further out of reach, which cuts off the vast majority of his paths to victory, and appears to be maintaining her lead in North Carolina.
Three changes to the map today: Florida moves from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican, Ohio moves from "tied" to "leaning" Republican, and Missouri moves for "solid" to "likely" Republican . Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 304 to 234.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Likely Republican
Missouri: Trump up by 6.6%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
Leaning Republican
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 3.6%
Utah: Trump up by 3.2%
Georgia: Trump up by 2.9%
Ohio: Trump up by 1.7%
Florida: Trump up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Arizona: Clinton up by 0.7%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.8%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.2%
Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.8%
Colorado: Clinton up by 5.5%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 5.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 6.4%
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
New polls today from Pew Research (Clinton +6), ABC News (Clinton +6), Gravis (Clinton +1), and The Economist (Clinton +5).
The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 6.9%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Clinton rallies with Mrs. Obama as Trump alleges corruption
Aiming to deliver a knockout blow to Donald Trump's staggering presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton turned to popular first lady Michelle Obama to rally voters in North Carolina.
CNN -- Donald Trump's tough path to the White House
Donald Trump got a morale boost this week -- but it likely won't be enough to propel him to the White House. After weeks of devastating headlines, the Republican nominee seemed to give himself a break.
Fox News -- Clinton more than doubles her money edge over Trump
Hillary Clinton entered the final phase of her presidential bid with a resounding campaign cash advantage over Donald Trump. New fundraising reports show her campaign and joint accounts with Democrats had $153 million in the bank as of last week.
Politico -- Clinton eyes Biden for secretary of state
Joe Biden is at the top of the internal short list Hillary Clinton’s transition team is preparing for her pick to be secretary of state, a source familiar with the planning tells POLITICO.
The Hill -- Clinton fails to contain the damage from email leaks
Hillary Clinton has failed to effectively contain the damage from the release of thousands of campaign chairman John Podesta’s personal emails, giving new ammunition to Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
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