Monday, October 31, 2016

Countdown To Election Day: New battleground polls from Missouri, Alaska, Maine, Utah, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan

STATE POLLING

New battleground polls today from Missouri (Trump +5), Alaska (Trump +1Clinton +4), Maine CD2 (Clinton +3), Utah (Trump +2), Ohio (Clinton +1), Arizona (Trump +2Trump +2), Florida (Clinton +1, Clinton +4, Clinton +1, Clinton +2, Trump +4), North Carolina (Clinton +6, Clinton +2, Clinton +3), Colorado (Clinton +3), Pennsylvania (Clinton +8Clinton +4), New Hampshire (Clinton +9), Wisconsin (Clinton +6), and Michigan (Clinton +7 and Clinton +6).

First off, you may be wondering why I have Alaska listed among the battleground states. The reason, quite surprisingly to just about everyone, is that it has indeed become one...and a remarkably close one at that. And this was based on two polls from different groups, which helps lend credence that it's not just an outlier result.

Granted, I give the chances of Clinton flipping Alaska to be a remote as the state itself, and the 3 electoral votes up for grabs likely won't matter much either way, but the fact that a state which hasn't gone Democratic since the Johnson landslide of 1964 is now in play is quite remarkable.

In Utah, Evan McMullin has pulled to within 2% of Trump, which means he has a more than decent change of being the first independent candidate since George Wallace in 1968 to win any electoral votes. And Utah is a state that has been as reliably Republican as Alaska, with does not bode well for the Trump campaign (and presages the upcoming battle for control and future direction of the Republican Party itself).

Perusing through the rest of the polls -- which include five from Florida, three from North Carolina, and two each from Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan -- we see a bit of last minute movement. Trump has regained the upper hand (just barely) in Arizona and brought Michigan back into play (also just barely), while Clinton has made Alaska a battleground (somewhat), and brought Missouri back into play (again, just barely).

There's an overall tightening of the race, which is generally expected in the final week of any election as the few remaining undecideds finally admit to pollsters who they plan to vote for, but this weekend was also complicated by the furor over FBI Director James Comey's startling (and unprecedented) news about finding "new" Clinton emails on an aide's computer.

The letter Comey sent to Congress has re-energized the Republican candidates across the board and sent Clinton and her allies into defense mode when they had planned to spend the final week riding the wave of expected victory and focus on helping downballot Democratic candidates. Whether or not anything ever comes out of the latest email "find" will likely not be known for months, but the effect wrought by Comey's awkwardly written letter is already being seen.

There are also new polls today from Idaho (Trump +12), Louisiana (Trump +14), Maine CD1 (Clinton +20), and Vermont (Clinton +26), for those of you who are poll completists.

Several changes to the map today: Alaska and Missouri move from "solid" to "likely" Republican, Arizona flips from "leaning" Democrat to "leaning" Republican, and Michigan moves from "solid" to "likely" Democratic.

Currently, Clinton has a projected overall lead of 322 to 216. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
 
Likely Republican

Missouri: Trump up by 6.8%
Nebraska (CD2): Trump up by 6%
Texas: Trump up by 5.3%
Alaska: Trump up by 4.1%

Leaning Republican

Maine (CD2): Trump up by 3.3%
Utah: Trump up by 3%
Iowa: Trump up by 2.4%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.3%
Ohio: Trump up by 0.6%
Arizona: Trump up by 0.3%

Leaning Democrat

Florida: Clinton up by 1.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1.6%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.1%

Likely Democrat

Colorado: Clinton up by 4.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 5.7%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.8%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 5.9%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 6.2%
Michigan: Clinton up by 6.5%
 
Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

NATIONAL POLLING

New polls today from ABC News (Clinton +1) and IDP/TIPP (Clinton +2).

The current cumulative polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 4%.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Clinton seeks to use new FBI inquiry as galvanizing force

Even before FBI Director James Comey jolted the presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton and her advisers were on edge. Never mind that preference polls had Clinton ahead of Republican Donald Trump nationally and in nearly every battleground state.

CNN -- FBI discovered Clinton-related emails weeks ago

The FBI stumbled upon a trove of emails from one of Hillary Clinton's top aides weeks ago, law enforcement officials told CNN Sunday. But FBI Director James Comey didn't disclose the discovery until Friday, raising questions about why the information was kept under wraps and then released only days before the election.

Fox News -- 34 percent 'less likely' to vote for Clinton after new email revelations

A poll released Sunday shows more than 30 percent of likely voters say they are less inclined to support Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton after revelations Friday about the FBI reviewing newly-discovered emails potentially related to Clinton's tenure as secretary of state.

Politico -- Reid: FBI director 'may have broken the law'

FBI Director James Comey "may have broken the law" by showing favoritism to Republicans in announcing new investigative steps regarding Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid alleged on Sunday evening.

The Hill -- FBI drama injects uncertainty into frantic final week of race

The presidential campaign is entering its final full week amid high drama and volatility, as both sides grapple with the fallout from the FBI’s announcement that it is examining newly discovered emails that “appear to be pertinent” to an earlier investigation of Hillary Clinton.
 

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