Saturday, August 6, 2016

93 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan

STATE POLLING

New polls today from Georgia, Kentucky, and Michigan.

Georgia is now virtually tied, as Clinton has erased Trump's early lead in the traditionally Republican state. The Peach State hasn't voted for a Democrat for the White House since Bill Clinton's first term, and early on in this campaign season hadn't been seen as a serious battleground state. Well, it most certainly is now, much to the anguish of the GOP. 

They can console themselves a bit with the news that solidly reliable Kentucky remains solidly red (+10 overall), but then wring their hands once again seeing Michigan -- once a vital part of their "Rust Belt" strategy -- continue to slip further and further into solid blue (Clinton +8.9).

Currently, Clinton has a 250 to 148 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 340 to 176 (with 22 tied). Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Leaning Republican

Missouri: Trump up by 4.3%
Utah: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.1%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%

Virtually Tied

Georgia: Trump up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.6%

Leaning Democrat

North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.1% 
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6% 
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.8%
Virginia: Clinton up by 1.8% 
Florida: Clinton up by 2.3% 
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.9% 
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5%

NATIONAL POLLING

New poll today from IDB/TIPP, which has Clinton ahead +4 in a four-candidate field, and +7 head-to-head against Trump. After a few days of some very wild polling, this poll is much more in line with our composite average, which currently has Clinton leading by 6.4%.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Trump (Finally) Endorses Ryan, McCain, Ayotte

(CNN) -- Donald Trump endorsed House Speaker Paul Ryan on Friday, moving to mend an intra-party rift that has put the Republican presidential nominee at odds with its highest-ranking elected official.

Trump's endorsement of Ryan came at a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. 

"We will have disagreements, but we will disagree as friends and never stop working together toward victory. And very importantly, toward real change," Trump said, reading off a prepared statement. "So in our shared mission, to make America great again, I support and endorse our speaker of the House, Paul Ryan."

Trump earlier in the week had declined to endorse Ryan, as well as Sens. John McCain and Kelly Ayotte. But he then endorsed the Arizona and New Hampshire senators in their primary races.

Hillary Clinton Holds A "Halfway" Press Conference

(USA Today) -- Hillary Clinton sort of, kind of, almost broke her streak and held a press conference on Friday.

More than seven months since her last formal press conference, the former secretary of State addressed a room full of journalists and took a few questions. Clinton was speaking to the National Association of Black Journalists and the National Association of Hispanic Journalists during their annual conference in Washington. (Donald Trump also received an invitation but declined to speak.)

The president of the NABJ described the event as a large press conference, but many reporters who frequently cover the Democratic nominee pointed out that fielding a few pre-selected questions doesn't really count as a press conference.

Trump Calls Clinton 'Close to Unhinged,' Assures He's Pro-Baby

(NBC News) -- After an off-message week, Donald Trump finally hit his stride Friday afternoon, spending nearly the entirety of his hour long remarks attacking Hillary Clinton and predicting "destruction of this country from within" should she win in November.

"We're going to be talking about the Queen of Corruption," Trump previewed at the top of his remarks. He stayed true to his word, rarely shifting off his anti-Clinton message. When he did stray, he used the time to disparage the media and set the record straight on headlines regarding a baby that Trump, perhaps jokingly, kicked out of his rally earlier in the week.

The GOP nominee questioned Clinton's policy judgment and stability repeatedly, in front of a crowd that chanted "lock her up," called her a "traitor," and one woman who labeled Clinton a "liar, liar, pants on fire."

Former CIA Director Endorses Clinton, Says Trump "Unwitting" Russian Agent

(CNN) -- Michael Morell, former acting director of the CIA, endorsed Hillary Clinton for president in a New York Times op-ed Friday, praising the former secretary of state's qualifications and warning that GOP nominee Donald Trump "may well pose a threat to national security."

Morell, a 33-year veteran of the CIA who led the agency from 2010-2013, said that while in the past he has "always been silent about my preference for president," the high stakes of the 2016 election mean he can "no longer" withhold his opinion.

"On Nov. 8, I will vote for Hillary Clinton. Between now and then, I will do everything I can to ensure she is elected as our 45th president," Morell wrote. The former CIA chief said that "Donald J. Trump is not only unqualified for the job, but he may well pose a threat to our national security."
  

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