Monday, August 1, 2016

98 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, Virginia

STATE POLLING

New polls from Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, and Virginia.

Also, I found four new polling firms and have updated the entire database to take into account their results from the past six months. As such, the overall map has changed a bit, so here's the entire list:

Solidly GOP

Wyoming: Trump up by 31.6%
West Virginia: Trump up by 28.1%
Alabama: Trump up by 24%
Oklahoma: Trump up by 19.1%
Idaho: Trump up by 17.9%
Alaska: Trump up by 17.7%
Louisiana: Trump up by 16.7%
Mississippi: Trump up by 13.7%
Tennessee: Trump up by 13.7
Nebraska: Trump up by 12.4%
Montana: Trump up by 12.4%
South Dakota: Trump up by 11.4%
Arkansas: Trump up by 10.3%
Kansas: Trump up by 10.3%
South Carolina: Trump up by 10%
North Dakota: Trump up by 9.8%
Indiana: Trump up by 9.3%
Kentucky: Trump up by 8.3%
Texas: Trump up by 6.3%

Leaning GOP

Arizona: Trump up by 4.7%
Utah: Trump up by 4.5%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.1%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.7%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%

Virtually Tied

Nevada: Trump up by 0.3%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 0.2% 

Leaning DEM

Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6% 
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.8%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 2.7% 
Virginia: Clinton up by 2.5% 
Florida: Clinton up by 5% 
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5% 

Solidly DEM

Connecticut: Clinton up by 6.4%
Wisconsin: Clinton up by 6.6% 
Michigan: Clinton up by 6.8
Oregon: Clinton up by 6.8%
Delaware: Clinton up by 8.3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton up by 8.3%
Colorado: Clinton up by 8.9%
Minnesota: Clinton up by 9.4%
Rhode Island: Clinton up by 12.4%
New Jersey: Clinton up by 12.5%
Washington: Clinton up by 12.6%
Maine (CD1): Clinton up by 15%
Illinois: Clinton up by 17.1%
New York: Clinton up by 17.2%
Vermont: Clinton up by 19.4%
California: Clinton up by 21.3%
Hawaii: Clinton up by 21.4%
Massachusetts: Clinton up by 20.3%
Maryland: Clinton up by 26.4%
District of Columbia: Clinton up by 48.2%

Currently, Clinton has a 250 to 148 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 336 to 192 (with 10 tied).

NATIONAL POLLING

New poll from Morning Consult which has Clinton up +3. Last week, the same poll had Trump up +4, so that's basically a seven point post-convention "bounce" for Clinton. We'll see how the other polls see things in the next couple of days.

The current composite polling average has Trump leading by 0.4%, trending downwards.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Debate Commission to Trump: The Dates Are Set

(Politico) -- The Commission on Presidential Debates responded to Donald Trump and the Republican National Committee's complaints about the debate schedule with a message on Sunday: The schedule is set. 

"The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) started working more than 18 months ago to identify religious and federal holidays, baseball league playoff games, NFL games, and other events in order to select the best nights for the 2016 debates," the commission said in a statement. "It is impossible to avoid all sporting events, and there have been nights on which debates and games occurred in most election cycles. A debate has never been rescheduled as a result." 

Trump and RNC officials have complained that two of the three scheduled presidential and one vice-presidential debates overlap with NFL games. Trump campaign Chairman Paul Manafort said the campaign staff would sit down with the CPD "in the next week or so" to discuss the debate schedule, and RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said last week that he believes the political parties should have more to say on the general election debate schedule. On Sunday, Priebus added: "Certainly we're not going to agree with anything that our nominee doesn't agree with."

Did Trump Go Too Far With Khan's Parents?

(CNN) -- Donald Trump's criticism about the Muslim parents of a slain American soldier has generated -- once again -- a backlash within his own party. 

Just 100 days from the election, Trump has responded in his standard fashion -- dig in, claim he's being treated unfairly and attack back.

But the swift condemnation of Trump's response raises questions about whether this controversy is different from the ones that came before it.

It certainly isn't going away - Khizr and Ghazala Khan appeared for a lengthy joint interview on CNN's "New Day" on Monday where Khizr accused Trump of "ignorance and arrogance."

Trump Says Putin Is 'Not Going To Go Into Ukraine,' Despite Crimea

(CNN) -- Donald Trump said Sunday that Russian President Vladimir Putin won't make a military move into Ukraine -- even though Putin already has done just that, seizing the country's Crimean Peninsula. 

"He's not going into Ukraine, OK, just so you understand. He's not going to go into Ukraine, all right? You can mark it down. You can put it down. You can take it anywhere you want," Trump said in an interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos on "This Week." 

"Well, he's already there, isn't he?" Stephanopoulos responded, in a reference to Crimea, which Putin took from Ukraine in early 2014.

Trump said: "OK -- well, he's there in a certain way. But I'm not there. You have Obama there. And frankly, that whole part of the world is a mess under Obama with all the strength that you're talking about and all of the power of NATO and all of this. In the meantime, he's going away. He takes Crimea."

Koch Network Seeks to Defuse Donor Frustration Over Trump Rebuff

(Washington Post) -- Thirteen years after billionaire industrialist Charles Koch gathered a small group of his fellow libertarian donors in a Chicago hotel to discuss how to promote their economic theories, the network he launched is one of the country’s most potent political forces, with 1,600 staffers across 38 states.

But Koch’s refusal to harness his singular operation in support of the Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, has put him at odds with some of his wealthiest peers — and forced the network to defend its relevance at a time of its greatest reach.

That tension rippled behind the scenes this weekend as about 400 donors met in Colorado Springs at a luxury resort encircling a man-made lake, where white swans paddled in the shadow of the Rocky Mountains. Between panels extolling free speech and conservative state-policy victories, Koch and his top deputies heard out donors worried about the network’s decision to sit on the sidelines.
  

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