Monday, August 29, 2016

70 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Texas, Ohio, California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Florida

STATE POLLING

Ipsos just dropped a batch of new polls from Texas (Trump +13), Ohio (Clinton +6), California (Clinton +36), New York (Clinton +22), Pennsylvania (Clinton +7) , Illinois (Clinton +27) and Florida (Clinton +7).

With the exception of Texas, this is devastating news for the Trump campaign, which had built its election strategy around breaking the Democrats hold on the "Rust Belt" states with a blue collar populist message. Combined with Florida, this was what they believed would win them the White House.

Unfortunately for their plans, that strategy is simply not working. Clinton is leading in Ohio and Pennsylvania (along with Michigan) and building her lead in Florida. Add in insurmountable leads in California, Illinois and New York, and with just 70 days to go, things are not looking good for Trump.  His last remaining hope to reset the campaign and turn things around are the upcoming presidential debates.

Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.

Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Leaning Republican

South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%

Virtually Tied

Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 0.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%

Leaning Democrat

North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.3%
Florida: Clinton up by 3.6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%

Here are the State Polling Averages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

NATIONAL POLLING

No new national polls today.

The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5%.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Associated Press -- Clinton proposes plan to address mental health treatment

Hillary Clinton is rolling out a comprehensive plan to address millions of Americans coping with mental illness, pointing to the need to fully integrate mental health services into the nation's health care system.

CNN -- What is Donald Trump's immigration plan?

Donald Trump's lack of clarity on his plans for dealing with some 11 million undocumented immigrants in this country has been so head-spinning in recent weeks it's starting to look deliberate.

Fox News -- Trump preps for first presidential debate; aide vows 'unconventional' approach

Donald Trump’s campaign confirmed that the candidate is off the campaign trail Sunday to get ready for his first presidential debate with Democratic rival Hillary Clinton but was mum on preparation strategy or likely tactics.

Huffington Post -- Trump Vows Crackdown On Immigrants Who Overstay Visas

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump offered fresh details of how he would tackle illegal immigration on Saturday, saying he would crack down on those who overstay their visas as he sought to quiet criticism from conservatives.

Politico -- Trump’s new aim: Poison a Clinton presidency

The trick out of Brooklyn isn't just to make Hillary Clinton win but to make her win as something other than a brain-damaged crook who stole the election and will spend the next four years selling out the government from her deathbed.

The Hill -- Trump promises immigration speech Wednesday

On Sunday evening, Donald Trump promised in a tweet that he’ll deliver a major speech on immigration Wednesday — saying he’s still looking for a larger venue. Trump is looking more closely at the question of what to do about millions of illegal immigrants living in the country.
 

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