STATE POLLING
A whole raft of new polls today, including several multiples. We have three from Pennsylvania (NBC News/WSJ, Quinnipiac, and Susquehanna each with Clinton +9), two from Ohio (NBC News/WSJ with Clinton +4 and Quinnipiac with Clinton +2), and individual polls from Florida (tied), North Carolina (Clinton +2), Missouri (Trump +2), and Iowa (tied).
What this latest batch of polls tells us is that the battleground states are considered such for a reason, and that in spite of a seemingly endless series of missteps and unforced errors, Trump still has a reasonable chance in many of the traditional battleground states, polling within the margin or error in eight of them.
However, there are almost no conceivable paths to victory for him without Pennsylvania, and that has been solidly blue now for nearly a month. That said, it's still nearly three months until Election Day, which is an eternity in politics.
Note that all of the new polls are four-candidate polls, and that Quinnipiac polled "likely voters" as opposed to "registered voters" for the first time this season. For those interested in how Gary Johnson is doing, he averaged around 7% in each of the state polls, drawing down about 1% from Clinton's head-to-head numbers.
Currently, Clinton has a 250 to 148 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 362 to 176. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Utah: Trump up by 5.5%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.3%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Nevada: Clinton up by 1%
Georgia: Clinton up by 1.4%
Florida: Clinton up by 1.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.7%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.8%
Ohio: Clinton up by 2.5%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from NBC News/SM (Clinton +6), Economist/YouGov (Clinton +6), and NBC News/Survey Monkey (Clinton +6), which are remarkably consistent with each other considering the difference in polling methodology between the three.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading by 7.5%
TOP POLITICAL STORIES
Trump In Trouble Over 'Second Amendment' Remark
(Politico) -- Donald Trump on Tuesday said "the Second Amendment people" may be the only way to stop Hillary Clinton from getting to appoint federal judges if she wins the presidential election in November.
“Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish, the Second Amendment,” he said as an aside while smiling. “By the way, and if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don’t know. But I’ll tell you what, that will be a horrible day.”
The reference to the Second Amendment, the right to keep and bear arms, could be interpreted as a joke about using violence to stop Clinton or her judicial picks.
Trump Says He Wants To Debate, But He Has Conditions
(McClatchy) -- Hillary Clinton released a statement Monday night that she would be participating in all three scheduled presidential debates. It was an atypical move, which called out Donald Trump’s appearance of “trying to avoid debates.”
The Republican presidential nominee tried to set that straight in an interview with Time on Tuesday, saying he would debate but he had conditions.
“I will absolutely do three debates,” Trump told Time in a phone interview. “I want to debate very badly. But I have to see the conditions.” Trump said he had negotiated terms during primary debates and he planned to do the same in the general election.
Deleted Clinton Emails Might Remain Secret Until After Election
(The Hill) -- None of the work-related Hillary Clinton emails discovered by the FBI after being deleted from her private server have been released, raising questions about whether any will be seen in public before Election Day.
The FBI says it found “several thousand” work-related emails deleted by Clinton, but the State Department has not committed to a schedule for their release, and it will be up to a federal judge to determine when they could be made public.
“As we have just received this material from the FBI we are still assessing what our process will look like,” State spokeswoman Elizabeth Trudeau said in a statement to The Hill on Tuesday.
Melania Trump Will Address Immigration Controversy
(CNN) -- Donald Trump announced Tuesday evening that his wife will hold a news conference "over the next couple of weeks" to address reports that she violated immigration laws when she first came to the U.S.
Trump said his wife would prove that "she came in totally legally."
The New York Post last week published nude photos of Melania Trump in 1995, quickly raising questions about whether the former model had obtained the appropriate visa to work as a model in the United States.
Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks confirmed to CNN that Melania Trump will indeed hold a news conference, but declined to provide additional specifics on the timing.
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