STATE POLLING
One new poll today, from Michigan (Clinton +7). Not any big surprise there, as Clinton has been steadily leading in Michigan all summer long. Even Trump's recent major speech in Detroit has done little to move the needle.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
Also, if you look over to your right at the top of the page, you'll notice a new link to the State Polling Averages. This lists the current polling averages from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. They are listed in order of support, with the battleground states in the center.
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls today from Quinnipiac and Reuters/Ipsos. Quinnipiac has Clinton up by 7, leading Trump 45% to 38%, with Johnson at 10% and Stein at 4%. Reuters has the race a bit closer, with Clinton up by just 3%, leading Trump 39% to 36%, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 3%.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.7%.
I've had several emails from regular readers asking why my national numbers where often much lower than what they were seeing on other sites. For example, this Politico headline reads "Clinton leads Trump by 10 in national poll" that references the same Quinnipiac poll I have above. If you notice, her lead here is only 7.
So, what's going on? Simple: Many media sites are only using the two-candidate numbers (where Clinton is indeed up +10), whereas I decided two months ago to use the three- and four-candidate numbers when they were available.
The reasons are simple: 1) I think including Johnson and Stein gives a more accurate look at the national electorate, 2) as has been said many times, national numbers actually don't mean anything. I include this section merely as a snapshot of how things are going; the only numbers that ever matter are the ones at the top of the electoral map.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump rebukes racism claims as Clinton warns of radicalism
Hillary Clinton says Donald Trump has unleashed the "radical fringe" within the Republican Party, including anti-Semites and white supremacists, dubbing the billionaire businessman's campaign as one that will "make America hate again."
CNN -- Clinton is attacking the 'Alt-Right'...What is it?
Previously confined to darker corners of the internet, the alt-right is moving into the spotlight. Donald Trump linked himself to the movement last week by hiring Breitbart's Steve Bannon as his campaign CEO, elevating one of the leading purveyors of an ideology steeped in white nationalism, misogyny and anti-Semitism to his inner circle.
Fox News -- Clinton, Trump battle over 'racist' charge
Hillary Clinton returned to the campaign trail Thursday to try pinning a racist tag on Donald Trump, accusing him of “taking hate groups mainstream” -- while Trump accused his opponent of "lies" and "smears," and labeling "decent Americans as racists."
Huffington Post -- Hillary Clinton Excoriates Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton said Thursday that Donald Trump is “taking hate groups mainstream,” allowing a “radical fringe” to take over the Republican Party. Speaking at a rally in Reno, Nevada, Clinton focused on Trump’s divisive, racist comments, telling voters, “There’s no other Donald Trump. This is it.”
Politico -- GOP insiders: Moderating on immigration helps Trump
Donald Trump signaled this week he will “soften” his proposals on immigration policy — and nearly two-thirds of Republican insiders in battleground states think a more moderate stance would help the GOP nominee win the presidency.
The Hill -- Watchdogs warn of 'serious' conflicts of interest for Clinton Foundation
Donald Trump is not the only voice sounding the alarm over conflicts-of-interest surrounding Hillary Clinton's namesake nonprofit. Government watchdog groups –– all of them champions of heightened transparency, campaign finance reform and other Democratic priorities –– are also warning of potentially "very serious" conflicts of interest if the Clinton Foundation continues business as usual with Clinton in the White House.
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