STATE POLLING
New polls today from New Mexico (Clinton +9), Florida (Trump +2), Arizona (Trump +7), and two polls from North Carolina (here and here) that have Clinton +2 and a tie between Clinton and Trump.
There's a reason swing states are called "swing" states, in that polling often swings back and forth, sometimes withing a single day. Such as Florida, where yesterday's poll had Clinton up by 14 and today's poll has Trump up by 2.
Some states are also know as "battleground" states because the races are so close that the voters feel as though they are being invaded by a hostile force of commercials, mailers and the like. Such as North Carolina, which has two polls on one day that show the race all but tied (our cumulative average still has Clinton with a 1.6% lead, but it's close to "virtually tied").
And North Carolina is actually the perfect definition of both labels, as the state has swung between the parties the last two elections, going for Obama in '08 and then Romney in '12. This one, barring a major collapse by one of the campaigns, will in all likelihood go down to the wire.
Currently, Clinton has a 260 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
Florida: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
NATIONAL POLLING
Two new polls today, from Economist/YouGov and Rasmussen, with nearly identical numbers.
The Economist has Clinton up by 4, 42% to 38% over Trump, with Johnson at 6% ad Stein at 4%. Rasmussen also has Clinton up by 4, 42% to 38% over Trump, but has Johnson at 9% and Stein at only 2%.
One data bit to keep in mind about national polling that includes third-party candidates (as we do) is that it assumes respondents can easily vote for the candidate of their choice, However, that's easier said than done for third-party candidates, as Johnson is on the ballot in just 43 states and Stein in only 35. And considering that neither of them are polling high enough make the debate stage alongside Clinton Trump next month (as of this time), expect to see their support remain in the mid-to-low single digits.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.6%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Leader of British movement to leave EU joins Trump at rally
Donald Trump is linking his "movement to take back the country" to Britain's surprising vote to leave the European Union. He invited Nigel Farage, an architect of the withdrawal campaign, to join him on stage at a rally Wednesday night in Jackson.
CNN -- Clinton blasts 'ridiculous' Trump attacks
Hillary Clinton slammed Donald Trump and issued a strong defense of the Clinton Foundation Wednesday amid the Republican nominee's claims that she used public office for personal gain.
Fox News -- Dem officials mum as Clinton battles foundation allegations
As critical reports pile up about the access Clinton Foundation donors enjoyed with Hillary Clinton’s State Department – and Donald Trump and his allies hammer her over the allegations – few elected Democrats have rallied to the party nominee’s defense.
Huffington Post -- The Trump Campaign Is Making A Rally Big Mistake
Donald Trump’s surrogates might want to stop pointing to the crowds he attracts as proof that he isn’t running behind Hillary Clinton. Although Trump conceded earlier this month that “maybe crowds don’t make the difference,” he often brags about jam-packed rallies and some of his supporters follow his lead.
Politico -- Ethicists scoff at Clinton Foundation transition plan
The Clinton Foundation’s vague timetable to limit its involvement with overseas programs, and its insistence that Chelsea Clinton remain on its board, raise red flags for ethics watchdogs even as the charity vows to avoid conflicts of interest in a Hillary Clinton presidency.
The Hill -- Hardliners shrug off Trump’s softer tone on immigration
Immigration hardliners are embracing Donald Trump's new message on immigration, saying the softer tone conveys a more practical approach to deportation without subverting his tough positions on enforcement and border security.
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