Thursday, August 4, 2016

95 Days Till Election Day: New polls from Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Tennessee

STATE POLLING

New polls from Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Tennessee.

For Democrats, the good news keeps on coming as Pennsylvania and Michigan continue to grow more solidly blue, and New Hampshire decisively moves from "virtually tied" to an almost 5% overall lead (which changes the map projection by 4 votes).  

For Republicans, the good news is that things are definitely tightening up in North Carolina, with Trump narrowing Clinton's lead to very close to even, and Tennessee remains solidly and safely red.


Currently, Clinton has a 250 to 148 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected lead of 340 to 192 (with 6 tied). Here are the current averages from the battleground states:

Leaning Republican

Missouri: Trump up by 4.3%
Utah: Trump up by 3.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.1%
Georgia: Trump up by 1.9%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%

Virtually Tied

Nevada: Clinton up by 0.6%

Leaning Democrat

North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.1% 
Ohio: Clinton up by 1.6% 
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.8%
Virginia: Clinton up by 1.8% 
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.9% 
Florida: Clinton up by 5% 
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5%

NATIONAL POLLING

New poll from FOX News, which has Clinton up +9 in a four-candidate race and +10 head-to-head against Trump. Given that it has been almost a week since the convention ended, this is most likely the last of the "bounce" polls (which were quite good for the Democratic nominee). The question looking ahead is, can she maintain her bounce?

The current composite polling average has Clinton leading by 4.7%, trending upwards.

TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES

Is Trump Setting The Stage To Challenge November’s Election Result?

(McClatchy) -- Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump seems to be preparing to be a sore loser, unsettling the prospects for any post-election peace.

Three months before Election Day, the 70-year-old New York businessman is reciting electoral grievances that range from the “rigged” presidential debate schedule to dire warnings of voter fraud. Trump’s preemptive declarations, in turn, could muddy the waters for Democrat Hillary Clinton, if she wins.

“I think he’s setting the stage to come up with an excuse for losing,” said Richard Hasen, a professor of law and political science at the University of California, Irvine School of Law. “And he’s de-legitimizing her. I think it’s dangerous to make these (rigged) claims.”

DHS May Increase Protections For Voting Systems To Thwart Hackers

(USA Today) -- Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson said Wednesday the federal government should consider designating the U.S. election process as "critical infrastructure" to give the voting system greater protection against cyber attacks.

Johnson made the comment in response to a reporter's question about whether electronic voting machines are vulnerable to hackers in November's presidential and congressional elections. There are more than 9,000 state, county and city jurisdictions that collect and tally votes throughout the nation.

"We are actively thinking about election cybersecurity right now," Johnson told reporters at a newsmaker breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

GOP Congressman Says He Can't Support Trump

(CNN) -- Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger said Wednesday that he doesn't see how he can endorse his party's nominee, Donald Trump, in the wake of the week's events.

"I'm an American before I'm a Republican," he told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on "The Situation Room." "I'm saying for me personally, how can I support that? Because he's crossed so many red lines that a commander in chief or a candidate for commander in chief should never cross."

Kinzinger, who has openly hesitated to embrace Trump as his party's standard-bearer, said he went to Cleveland hoping to "at least mildly endorse the Republican front-runner."

Clinton, Kaine to Release Book 2 Months Before Election

(Washington Post) -- Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Tim Kaine, are releasing a policy book two months before the election.

Simon & Schuster told The Associated Press on Wednesday that the 256-page book being released Sept. 6 will be called “Stronger Together” and will present a wide range of proposals from the Democratic presidential nominee. Hillary Clinton and Kaine, a Virginia senator, contributed introductions, and the book also will draw upon speeches and position papers and contributions from other campaign officials

“For the past 15 months, Hillary Clinton has laid out solutions for a wide range of issues affecting the American people. This publication gives voters the opportunity to get deeper into those ideas and the stories of everyday people that have influenced those ideas,” Jonathan Karp, publisher of Simon & Schuster, said in a statement.
    

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