STATE POLLING
New polls from Texas (Trump +11), Florida (Clinton +1), Iowa (Trump +1), New York (Clinton +14), Georgia (Trump +4), and South Carolina (Trump +2). There was also a poll in Maine, but it did not poll the two congressional districts separately (they each vote for an elector). Note to pollsters: statewide numbers in Maine mean nothing.
Another day of mixed news and unexpected poll numbers. Trump holds steady in Texas, and picks up steam in Iowa, Georgia and Florida, further narrowing those races. Clinton holds New York steady, and in the unexpected poll of the day, has drawn down Trump's support in traditionally red South Carolina to the point where it has now been added to the battleground map.
Currently, Clinton has a 250 to 139 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 362 to 176. Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
Utah: Trump up by 5.5%
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.3%
Missouri: Trump up by 4.1%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.8%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Leaning Democrat
Georgia: Clinton up by 1%
Nevada: Clinton up by 1%
Florida: Clinton up by 1.1%
Iowa: Clinton up by 1.3%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.8%
Ohio: Clinton up by 2.5%
New Hampshire: Clinton up by 4.9%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5%
Virginia: Clinton up by 5.5%
NATIONAL POLLING
New polls from Reuters/Ipsos (Clinton +5), and Rasmussen (Clinton +3). The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading by 6.5%, trending downward.
A note on convention "bounces": historically, the leading candidates get a bounce of between 4 to 7 points in the national polls following their respective conventions. This was also true this year, with Trump getting a 4-5 point bounce, and then Clinton getting a 6-7 point bounce.
Now that both conventions are several weeks in the past, things are settling down again and the real question is starting to get answered: which candidate has maintained most of their bounce. It appears to be Clinton, at least for the moment, even as her peak polling number has declined just over 2 points in the past week.
And for you history stat nerds reading this (hello, fellow travelers), in the past 16 presidential elections, the candidate leading in the polls two weeks after the conventions has gone on to win the popular vote. Of course, that doesn't always mean they won the White House. Just ask Al Gore.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Trump 'Fine' With Trying Americans at Gitmo
(Miami Herald) -- Donald Trump says it would be "fine" to try Americans suspected of terrorism at the Guantanamo Bay detention center if possible.
The Miami Herald asked Trump whether he'd approve new detentions at the prison if he's elected president. The Republican said he wants to ensure the U.S. has a "safe place" to keep a "radical Islamic terrorist."
Trump said President Barack Obama was releasing "terrible people" from the prison who shouldn't be let go. After extensive security reviews, Obama had transferred dozens of detainees to other countries as he works to close the prison at the U.S. base in Cuba.
Trump also criticized Obama and others who want to try terrorism suspects in traditional courts. Asked specifically about U.S. citizens, Trump says if they could face trial in military commissions at Guantanamo Bay, "that'll be fine."
Trump Continues To Claim Obama "Founded" ISIS With Help From Hillary Clinton
(Yahoo News) -- Donald Trump told Time magazine earlier this week that Republican leaders are urging him to soften his tone, but he feels more comfortable in “attacking style.”
That was evident on Thursday, when Trump doubled down and tripled down on his claim that President Obama was “founder of ISIS” and Hillary Clinton its “co-founder.”
“ISIS is honoring President Obama,” Trump said Wednesday night. “He is the founder of ISIS … and I would say the co-founder is crooked Hillary Clinton.”
In an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, the real estate mogul was given the chance to clarify his remarks. “I meant he’s the founder of ISIS,” Trump responded. “I do.”
Trump Warns GOP He Could Stop Fundraising
(The Hill) -- Donald Trump on Thursday issued a threat to stop fundraising for the Republican Party after a report emerged that party officials could focus resources on down-ballot candidates.
"I mean, if it is true, that's OK too because all I have to do is stop funding the Republican Party," Trump said on Fox News's "The O'Reilly Factor" when asked about the Republican National Committee potentially diverting funds away from the presidential race.
"I'm the one raising the money for them," he continued. "In fact, right now I'm in Orlando, I'm going to a fundraiser for the Republican Party. If they want to do that they can save me a lot of time and a lot of energy."
Trump told Fox News that he had spoken with Chairman Reince Priebus about a report the RNC may shift resources to down-ballot candidates as many Republicans shy away from his campaign.
McConnell: GOP Chances To Keep Senate Are ‘Very Dicey’
(Washington Post) -- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Thursday that GOP prospects for keeping control of the Senate after the November elections are “very dicey,” sounding an alarm amid mounting Republican concerns about presidential nominee Donald Trump,
Speaking to a Louisville-area civic group in his home state, McConnell said Senate Republicans were going to be “on defense” in this year’s election, regardless of who led the ticket as the party’s presidential candidate.
Twenty-four GOP-held seats are on the ballot this year, compared with 10 for Democrats, he noted. McConnell was promoted to majority leader two years ago when a Republican surge wrested Senate control from Democrats.
McConnell did not mention Trump as being a drag on Republican down-ballot races, but he chided Trump’s campaign tactics. The Kentucky senator said he hopes Trump “settles down and follows the script.”
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