STATE POLLING
New polls today from Iowa (tied) and Ohio (Clinton +6). No real surprise from either state, as Iowa is most likely going down to the wire, while Clinton is stabilizing her support in Ohio. It's still a major battleground state, and will likely remain that way all the way to the wire as well, but it's been stadily moving in Clinton's favor the last several weeks.
We've also gone through out entire spreadsheet and double-checked with the TPM Poll Tracker, Election Graphs, and RCP Polls to make sure we hadn't missed any polls in the past two weeks as well as having the polls in proper order by date.
Turns out we missed one poll in Indiana and two polls In New Hampshire, plus had a few polls slightly out of sequence. And while Indiana stays solidly Republican, the two New Hampshire polls have just pushed the Granite State back into solid blue for the Democrats.
With the change, Clinton now has a 260 to 139 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 5.8%
Utah: Trump up by 5.2%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.8%
Arizona: Trump up by 1.6%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Clinton up by 0.3%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.1%
North Carolina: Clinton up by 3.2%
Florida: Clinton up by 4.1%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 4.5%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
NATIONAL POLLING
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.5%.
Note: There's been a good amount written over the past few days about the LATimes/USC poll that has Trump up +2 while all other polls have Clinton up +4 to +8. Short answer as to why we don't use it: limited sampling.
Longer answer: they are sampling a much smaller pool of people (just 400 a day), don't appear to screen for "likely voter", weight their results based on 2012 models (which are, obviously, not applicable with this election), and then use a rolling average from the past seven days to arrive at a "daily" figure It also only asks about Clinton and Trump, whereas nearly all the other national polls are including Johnson at least, if not Stein as well.
.As such, I don't include their results (as I don't include any other of the "daily tracking" polls that also use too-small polling samples).
TOP POLITICAL STORIES
Trump Campaign Manager: Deportation Plans 'To Be Determined'
(CNN) -- It's still undecided whether Donald Trump will continue to support forced deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants living in the US, his campaign manager said Sunday.
"To be determined," said Kellyanne Conway, Trump's new campaign manager, after repeated questioning by CNN's Dana Bash on "State of the Union."
Conway was responding to reports about what was said in a meeting Trump held on Saturday with a Hispanic advisory council. Sources in the room told BuzzFeed that Trump spoke about a "humane and efficient" way to work with undocumented immigrants in the country currently, which was characterized by BuzzFeed as a way to legalize some and let them stay.
That would stand in sharp contrast with a central theme of the Trump campaign since the beginning, a hardline position on immigration focused on removing people in the country illegally.
Clinton Camp Halfway To $1 Billion Fundraising Goal
(AP) -- Hillary Clinton's campaign is halfway to its goal of raising a billion dollars for the 2016 race, according to her finance director.
Dennis Cheng announced the achievement on Thursday in a meeting with staff at the campaign's headquarters in Brooklyn, New York, according to a campaign aide who was present for the meeting but wasn't authorized to discuss internal campaign strategy and spoke on condition of anonymity.
Her campaign has resisted publicizing a fundraising target for the general election, fearing it would draw attention to big donors at a time when voters angry about the role of money in politics. She aimed to raise $100 million for her primary bid.
Clinton raised $90 million for her campaign and Democratic party committees in July, according to finance reports released on Saturday. She's maintained a staff of about 700 for months, opened up offices across the country and already spent $67 million on general election ads. This week, she'll spend at least $10 million more on ads.
Giuliani: Press Ignores Signs Of Clinton's Illness
(Politico) -- Continuing with the narrative that Hillary Clinton is unfit to be president, Rudy Giuliani, an adviser with Donald Trump's campaign, claimed Sunday there are videos online that show Clinton has an illness.
Giuliani said on "Fox News Sunday" that Clinton has "an entire media that constantly demonizes Donald Trump."
The former New York City mayor went on to say the media fail to point out how she has not held a news conference in over 200 days and her "several signs of illness."
The media "fails to point out several signs of illness by her; all you gotta do is go online," Giuliani said, before being interrupted by host Shannon Bream, who pointed out that Clinton's campaign has said there is no factual evidence to support those claims.
Pence Earns GOP Raves In First Month As Trump VP
(The Hill) -- He has comforted a weeping boy, defended the Gold Star Khan family and praised New Mexico’s Hispanic-American governor who backs immigration reform.
No, it’s not Ohio Gov. John Kasich. It’s Donald Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence.
The Republican Indiana governor and former congressman has been projecting a kinder, gentler Republican Party as he’s hopscotched across the country during his first month as the vice presidential nominee.
His brand of compassionate conservatism is a stark contrast to Trump's combative and often highly offensive style, helping to soften the image of the brash GOP presidential nominee and appeal to the establishment wing of the party, which has been completely put off by Trump.
No comments:
Post a Comment