STATE POLLING
New polls today from Pennsylvania (Clinton +3), Ohio (tie), Michigan (Clinton +5), and Arizona (Clinton +1).
Normally, a batch of polls with Clinton ahead in all but one would seem to be good news for her campaign. Yet, in this case three of the four shows signs of negative movement for Team Clinton. Michigan has dropped to "lean" status, joining Ohio (which has been there a long time), and Pennsylvania is getting a bit close to the cut-off line.
The good news for Clinton and company is that they are still ahead in all three of the states, and better news for them is how they are keeping Arizona in play. This not only forces the Trump campaign to focus on a state once considered a safe Republican playing field, but also could directly affect control of the Senate, as longtime incumbent (and former GOP nominee) John McCain is in the political fight of his career this year.
Currently, Clinton has a 244 to 145 "safe" electoral lead over Trump with a projected overall lead of 334 to 176 with 28 too close to call.
Here are the current averages from the battleground states:
Leaning Republican
South Carolina: Trump up by 4.7%
Missouri: Trump up by 3.2%
Arizona: Trump up by 2.4%
Maine (CD2): Trump up by 1%
Virtually Tied
Georgia: Trump up by 0.6%
Iowa: Trump up by 0.2%
Nevada: Clinton up by 0.7%
Leaning Democrat
North Carolina: Clinton up by 1.6%
Ohio: Clinton up by 3.2%
Florida: Clinton up by 3.6%
New Mexico: Clinton up by 5.3%
Michigan: Clinton up by 5.7%
Connecticut: Clinton up by 5.8%
NATIONAL POLLING
New poll today from Monmouth that has Clinton up by 7, 46% to 39% over Trump, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 2%.
At the rate things are going, it does not appear likely that either of the third-party candidates are going to achieve the necessary 15% support level to be invited to the first presidential debate stage (September 26th at Hofstra University). Johnson has gone on record saying that is he doesn't make the stage, he has no shot at winning the White House.
The current composite polling average in a four-candidate field has Clinton leading Trump by 5.5%.
TOP POLITICAL HEADLINES
Associated Press -- Trump's deportation waffle highlights campaign weaknesses
Donald Trump and his aides used to say that voters didn't care about the nitty-gritty of policy details. But now those details are tripping up his campaign. For more than a week now, as he's tried to shine the spotlight on his rival, Trump has appeared to wrestle with one of his signature proposals: A pledge to expel everyone living in the U.S. illegally with the help of a "deportation force."
CNN -- Clinton on pace to post her top fundraising month
Hillary Clinton raised over $11 million Sunday at three events in tony towns throughout the Hamptons, putting Clinton on place to make August her top fundraising month of the campaign. Clinton has so far headlined 31 events in August, the most fundraisers she has headlined in one month this year.
Fox News -- Trump calls Kaepernick's refusal to stand for national anthem 'terrible'
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump criticized San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick Monday, calling Kaepernick's refusal to stand for the national anthem "a terrible thing." "I think it’s personally not a good thing," Trump told Seattle radio station KIRO when asked about the controversy.
Huffington Post -- Donald Trump Is Wrong About Crime In Cities
Donald Trump on Monday continued his clumsy efforts to appeal to black voters, tweeting a false claim about “inner-city” crime nearing record highs. As his campaign again attempts to right itself after plummeting in the polls, Trump has argued that black voters should support him because Democratic policies have failed their communities.
Politico -- "There has always been, will always be a physical wall"
Donald Trump has been "remarkably consistent" with his call to end illegal immigration, one of his top spokesmen said Tuesday, as the Republican nominee himself sought to underscore his commitment to building a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, a day before his scheduled speech on the issue.
The Hill -- Trump’s popularity with African-American voters polling at zero
Public Policy Polling released a preview of a new poll on “The Rachel Maddow Show” Monday night that showed Donald Trump’s favorability rating among African-American voters at 0 percent. The liberal-leaning firm asked African-American voters a set of questions, asking whether they preferred Trump to things such as bedbugs, junk mail, carnies, bubonic plague and middle airplane seats.
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